Mexico and the US will probably be in Pots 2 or 3. Canada might end up in Pot 4.
But again, I don’t think this is all that complicated. After four draws of Round 2, for example, there are only 24 combinations of placements left. You can pretty easily determine if the four possibilities of the fifth draw create an impossibility under the rules.
Shifting gears for a second to an interesting speculation seen elsewhere: Costa Rica might play their B team against the USMNT tomorrow night instead of risking yellow cards to first stringers that would make them ineligible for the inter-zonal playoffs against New Zealand(?).
Poland - Sweden was entertaining- nothing like desperation to put a lot of energy into a match - but Sweden played really poorly, in particular on the second goal they gave up.
Apparently the results today mean that Canada gets into pot 3 with a win tomorrow, and pot 4 otherwise. I’m not sure how motivating that will be for them. Although on the other hand, Panama probably don’t have much motivation either, after the way their last couple games have gone. A win for Canada would sure put a nice cap on their qualifying run.
A poster at another board made a point last night that gave me pause. For all the improved talent in the center of the USMNT’s lineup, he said, the team is noticeably weaker than past teams at two key positions – keeper and striker.
I think this may be true. On the flip side, I don’t think we’ve started our eventual World Cup lineup once during qualifying. Last night’s lineup had no John Brooks, no Sergy Dest, no Wes McKennie and no Gio Reyna until late. All those guys make us better imho.
I’m glad we got Pot 2 and avoided the likes of Germany and Uruguay in our group but pretty much every team in Pot 3 is good enough to take us down, along with a few in Pot 4. Playing Serbia gives me the shivers.
Striker, yes. Keeper, I think Matt Turner is superior to Zach Steffen.
As for the WC starting lineup, I doubt Brooks makes it. Miles and Zimmerman are just too good together. Brooks may be a backup. Dest, McKennie, and Reyna should start (but Reyna’s position is tough if Weah and Pulisic are both available). So in a 4-3-3, we’d likely see something like:
Pulisic-ST-Weah/Reyna
Musah-Adams-McKennie
A.Robinson-M.Robinson-Zimmerman-Dest
Turner (I hope)
The rotating striker pool continues… Ferreira seems good if we are going try a false 9. There is also Pepi, Dike (currently hurt), Sargent, Pefok, and even Zardes.
Though having a front 3 of Weah-Pulisic-Reyna may be an interesting wrinkle.
2010 was pretty thin at striker - Jozy was young, then you had Herc Gomez, Robbie Findley and Edson Buddle. Zero goals for the group. 2014, Jozy’s hamstring went in the first match, Dempsey scored two in four matches, but Aron Johansson and Wondo came up empty (the latter had US fans in tears against Belgium).
For GK, will Turner heal up and get enough minutes between now and November? Especially when playing for Arsenal?
Also, I think we should give some props to Costa Rica. First three-win, nine-point international window in CONCACAF qualifying history, went 6-0-1 for an incredible 19 out of 21 points in the last half of the Octo. I don’t know if you could call it “momentum” going into the inter-confederation playoff, and I don’t know that they need that much, going against New Zealand, but they got themselves into that fourth spot by pure force of will.
Finally, I’m guessing Canada is the “team most likely to be drawn into the ‘Group of Death’” tomorrow, simply by reason of their being drawn into it. (That is, assuming they don’t end up in Group A. Everybody wants to play Qatar.)
Programming note: the England-US game is set for Black Friday.
And yeah, there’s no Group of Death. Someone has already calculated that the four strongest groups per average ELO rating are within eight points of each other.
I’m kinda pulling for Scotland to come through their playoffs so I can watch my Southampton guys - Che Adams and Stuart Armstrong - against the USMNT.
This is my first WC since I’ve been retired. Very pumped to be able to watch most of it this time.
Brooks isn’t even going to make the roster. I think he’s easily the most talented centerback. Maybe the most talented in the US system since Eddie Pope. But he has been very inconsistent with the US recently and maybe he’s not cool sitting the bench. Berhalter certainly has questions. If they get resolved he’ll have to play at least a couple games with Zimmerman over the summer.
Other than Jozy, the US hasn’t had a striker in 15 years (McBride). We’ll end up taking whoever is hot out of Sargent, Pepi, Pefok, Ferreira, and Dike. Weah might end up as the 9 too, with Reyna out wide and Musah/Mckennie/Adams in the midfield.
I did see the US is the youngest team in the WC by a lot. Could be helpful, could hurt.
The main issue with Brooks is that he’s slow and so when he’s beaten he doesn’t have the recovery speed to close the attacker down. In a lot of ways that’s the opposite of Miles Robinson who is very very quick. Zimmerman and Robinson made a great pairing and I can see it continuing on.
Maybe in the Nation’s League this Summer Brooks can show if he deserves to start.
That’s not that bad by itself, but he’ll also step waaay up into the midfield to make a challenge. You can be slow, stay home, and be extremely effective.