On BILL Clinton and Hillarys campaign.

[adaher]

@iiandyiiii

More wishful thinking disguised as analysis, I think.

C’mon now. The people Clinton is most likely to gain who don’t like Obama, which has been said by other people than just me, are non-liberal Democrats who don’t like Obama because he’s black. It’s hard to see what liberals would like better about Clinton if they don’t already like Obama.

What’s wishful thinking is assuming that liberals who think Obama is too conservative are going to come out to vote. Liberals are unreliable voters at the best of times.

[iiandyiiii]

@adaher

C’mon now. The people Clinton is most likely to gain who don’t like Obama, which has been said by other people than just me, are non-liberal Democrats who don’t like Obama because he’s black. It’s hard to see what liberals would like better about Clinton if they don’t already like Obama.

What’s wishful thinking is assuming that liberals who think Obama is too conservative are going to come out to vote. Liberals are unreliable voters at the best of times.

For one thing you’re continually equating “liking” with “voting”. Plenty of people will vote for a candidate they don’t like, or even whose policies they don’t really like. That’s because many people vote negatively.

For another, you’re just abysmal at trying to read the minds of Democrats. You’re nearly always wrong on this.

[adaher]

I don’t need to read minds. I see the lack of voting. Democrats say they’ll vote negatively, but they never came out until someone like Obama ran who was inspiring. Where were they when GWB, supposedly the worst President ever according to the left, was running for reelection? That’s when Democrats all over the internet thought the polls were skewed because GWB was going to inspire turnout like never before!

I’ll treat predictions of that happening in 2016 with the same level of skepticism.

[iiandyiiii]

@adaher

I don’t need to read minds. I see the lack of voting. Democrats say they’ll vote negatively, but they never came out until someone like Obama ran who was inspiring. Where were they when GWB, supposedly the worst President ever according to the left, was running for reelection? That’s when Democrats all over the internet thought the polls were skewed because GWB was going to inspire turnout like never before!

I’ll treat predictions of that happening in 2016 with the same level of skepticism.

Yes, everything goes through a filter of wishful thinking for you.

[Exapno_Mapcase]

@adaher

I don’t need to read minds. I see the lack of voting. Democrats say they’ll vote negatively, but they never came out until someone like Obama ran who was inspiring. Where were they when GWB, supposedly the worst President ever according to the left, was running for reelection? That’s when Democrats all over the internet thought the polls were skewed because GWB was going to inspire turnout like never before!

I’ll treat predictions of that happening in 2016 with the same level of skepticism.

And we’ll treat your posts with a great deal more skepticism.

GWB was a sitting president, presiding over a healthy economy and in the middle of a war that still had positive public approval in 2004. (The trend did not turn negative until 2006.)

In any normal election, Bush should have been impregnable. But in 2004, he came very close to losing. Why? Because Democrats flooded out to vote against him. They picked up 8,000,000 votes. Republicans also responded, in even greater numbers, and Bush eked out a slight 2.5% margin. But the voter turnout rose from 50.3% to 55.7%, the largest rise for a second term election in modern history.

1944-1948: -5.0%
1952-1956: -2.3%
1960-1964: -1.4%
1968-1972: -5.6%
1976-1980: -0.8%
1980-1984: +0.5%
1988-1992: +4.9%
1992-1996: -6.2%
2000-2004: +5.4%
2008-2012: -2.2%

Democrats did turn out, for John Kerry, that most charismatic of all possible candidates. I know you know this, because in the run-up to the 2012 election I posted variations on this approximately 300 times.

Unlike Republican voters, people on this Board do not start believing something that is not true just because somebody repeats it incessantly. Instead, we refute the ideological pleading with hard numbers again and again and again. This is tiresome and ridiculous in its necessity, but don’t expect it ever to end. We’ll shoot down every phony claim of yours till the end of time or the Dope, whichever happens second.

[Catballou]

Yes. He has boosted her campaign from the beginning.

[Onomatopoeia]

@adaher

Obama’s approval rating is 43%. If 57% of the country are right wingers than the Republicans don’t have much to worry about. Unfortunately for my side, 57% of the country isn’t right wing, so we’re tying Clinton to Obama so that we can get the bulk of the 57% that don’t like Obama.

I don’t believe that is a winning strategy. Obama will look increasingly better to more of the population the closer to the end of his presidency we get.