It’s time to make some predictions! Inspired by a thread in IMHO regarding the VP choices of the major candidates I thought it was time to do this. I’ll start with one I said there and then another one.
Prediction 1:
Virginia will go Democratic for President and elect Mark Warner as their Senator to replace John Warner. However, analysis of the voting will indicate that it was WARNER who had coattails for the Democratic nominee and not the other way around. Warner will win with a higher percentage of the vote than the Presidential contender. This will be perceived that having Warner on the Senate race drove more people to the polls inclined to vote blue than the Presidential nominee.
Prediction 2:
In the Senate the Democratic Party will gain seats but nowhere near enough to get to 60. I predict a net gain of 3-5 Senate seats.
There’s a lot that can change in the presidential race, so I can’t make a good prediction there, but of this one I’m increasingly confident: voter turnout is going to drop significantly. It was around 56 or 57 percent in 2004, I’m betting it will be right around 49%.
IMHO (where this belongs) Hillary Clinton wins the Presidency.
She is more centrist than expected and the Center broadens leaving fewer Left and Right extremists.
There is no money left to do any real anything anyway.
But this may all be a dream. Except the money part.
Neither McCain nor Thompson wins a pre-Feb.5 primary, and their candidacies basically fizzle.
Huckabee’s candidacy gets some traction, but doesn’t raise enough money in time to have a presence in many states before and on Feb. 5. He never really threatens the leader.
4’) 3&4 ==> Either Rudy or Mitt wins the nomination. No prediction of which one.
For the zillionth straight year, no brokered convention.
I’m not saying that Huckabee or Richardson will get chosen as veep, but no declared Presidential candidate other than them will be.
The Dems pick up 6 Senate seats, net, +/-1. The Senate remains a very target-rich environment for the Dems.
The Dems pick up 6-12 House seats, net. The House isn’t such a target-rich environment, since the Dems picked up most of the vulnerable seats last year.
My only prediction is that Rudy will never never never win the general election. He might somehow someway get the nomination, but the Democratic candidate will smush him like an insect. Even if it’s Edwards.
Rudy might keep it together long enough to win the nomination, but the wheels will come off sooner or later.
The Democrats will not retain the Senate if they lose seats. It’s only 51-49 now, including the two independents. The loss of one seat would give control to the Vice-President. (A Republican, in your scenario.)
Won’t happen anyway. The class has 22 Rebublicans and 12 Democrats. (Not counting Wyoming’s Republican safe special election.) Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia are very likely to go Dem, Nebraska and New Hampshire are less likely but still possible Rebublican losses and I can’t see the Republicans taking any of the 12 Democratic seats.
I see any major Democrat except Clinton definitely winning the Presidency, and Clinton probably, but more narrowly.
The Dems will gain 3-5 seats in the Senate and hold serve in the House.
Why do you expect him to get the nomination? I actually think I’d rather have him, or Obama, as the candidate than HRC, but I don’t see it happening. (Anyway, I’ll vote for my fave, Kucinich, because the primaries are when you get to vote for your fave; he might be unelectable in the general but there’s no danger of him winning anyway. Not that it matters who I vote for – since I live in Florida, my primary vote won’t count. :mad: )
Hillary beats Giuliani by about 49% to 45%, with Mike Bloomberg or a similar third-party candidate taking most of the rest. The Democrats end up with about 55 seats in the Senate and expand their margin in the House, since they almost can’t help but do otherwise, but Hillary doesn’t offer much in the way of coattails.
Yeah, what about that? Will there be a third-party bid? Threats have been made, by social-conservative Pubs, to mount one if Giuliani gets the nomination. (I really can’t see any serious left-of-the-Dems bid, like Nader’s in 2000, this time around, and I see no potential Ross Perots on the horizon.)
I’ve gone back and forth about it, but right now I don’t think the religious right will get mad enough to vote for a third-party candidate. I don’t think they’ll be very enthused in 2008, but I don’t think they’ll split off. I do think there will be some room for someone to run a Unity style ticket, denouncing big government and partisanship. But people don’t really believe voting for a third-party candidate can make a difference, so only a few will convince themselves to pull the trigger.
I predict that whoever wins, they won’t be any candidate I vote for. Other than that…I really have no idea. My GUESS is that Hillary will win the Democrat nomination. I really have no feel for who will win the Republican nod. As too the actual election…I guess going out on a limb, Hillary will probably take it, unless things really shift in the next few months.
Or, maybe Bush will cancel the elections and declare himself king!
