Sure, send on, RJK. I even got a clean mayonnaise jar to stash them in, so you know they’ll be safe and secure. 
your humble TubaDiva
Administrator
PS FWIW, anybody seen James Randi’s demonstration on astrology? Quite mean – but effective.
I agree. If C.A. admits that he definitely does not wish to take up this challenge, then we might be able to work things between us.
However, then what is to prevent people from disregarding the results of that experiment? No offense, but i think people would give much more importance to this thing if the smartest man in the world was in danger of screwing up, rather than you or anyone else for that matter. :-
besides,it was C.A. i wanted to prove a fanatic (read my OP). i am not out on a mission to prove the merit in astrology once and for all!
of course, if C.A. does admit he is “chicken”, to put it crudely, then i might have to work things with you, though i dont see any glory in that!!!
finally-
**
**
if the experiment is not conclusive/unambigious, then how is it successful?
Jabberwalkie,
In his article, Cecil wrote
I would be interested in your theory as to how astrology works. I undertsand that you may not be a scientist and that there are many things in life that we don’t understand. However, you are such a strong proponent of astrology and you seem to be very intelligent, so you must have thought about this. If not then your faith in astrology is similar to religion or superstition, in which case proof is superfluous.
I am assuming that your strong belief stems from the fact that you have seen it work in many cases. But have you tracked the number of cases where you have seen it not work? Do you even remember such cases? There must be some as you have stated that it is not 100% accurate.
If you want to perform a scientific test then better observational data might be a good place to start. Then, if the data bear out your hypothesis, start looking for an underlying cause. This would lead to a better understanding of the process and would ultimately lead to improvements in accuracy.
Or you can set up a test that may be right in one case. What the odds are of this happening by chance?
TubaDiva, could you send me a link to any site where the details of that demo are? I searched randi.org but did not find anything about that.
TIA
I like RJK’s suggestions for a couple of reasons. The first one, frankly, is trust. We’re supposed to TRUST that jabber doesn’t tell the astrologer anything about Cecil. But if the astrologer comes back and says, “This person is very bright, has done a lot of writing, and has an adverse reaction to the word-ending ‘gry’…” Let’s face it, we wouldn’t know for sure whether jabber cheated, other than taking jabber’s word for it.
RJK’s suggestion is a blind test… he will be giving the correct answers to an independent party.
I have not discussed this with the Boss, but I am fairly certain he will not reveal his date and place of birth. He values his anonymity, perhaps to the point of obsession, and this would be too open. He’s seen what happens to Hollywood stars, plagued by fans, clothing torn, can’t pee without a reporter taking a picture… and he doesn’t want to be the center of that kind of attention. Any half-witted detective, told his date and place of birth, could track him down from that.
Yay! Jabberwalkie agrees that an ambiguous experimental result won’t be valid! See, what I was trying to get at is that you have to do things that might seem strange at first if you want an unambiguous result.
Since so many people doubt the effectiveness of astrology you really have to go the extra mile to eliminate ambiguous results. And by the way, thanks for warning me about making lame remarks…I was going to make some, but now that you told me not to, I won’t.
Now, why are you so upset that Cecil won’t play? Look, the reality is that he probably hasn’t even read this, and why should he? Perhaps astrology works. However, I think it doesn’t. I may be wrong, but I’m pretty damn sure. For instance, if you can running in and said the sky had turned green, I might take the time to investigate, or I might just write you off as a kook. It’s not worth my time to investigate every claim people make…I have to make choices as to which anomolous claims I think are likely to provide results.
Let me ask you a question. What is your idea of how astrology works? I’m not saying you have to explain everything, since I’m sure you don’t know everything about astrology, no one could! But what is the basis for the accuracy of astrology? What relationship do stars and planets have with human lives? And most importantly, how did people discover what stars and planets had what influences?
I don’t know how astrology is practiced in India…is it anything like it is in western countries, with zodiacal signs, planetary influences, and such? Maybe I think astrology doesn’t work simply because people over here don’t know the correct way to do it, like they do in India. Most astrological traditions are very ancient, and I bet we share quite a bit. So here’s a question. Suppose ancient people decided that people born under a certain constellation tended to share certain characteristics…Leos are brave, Scorpios are practical jokers, or whatever. But how did they know? How were they able to determine which signs went with which characteristics? They obviously didn’t understand our modern methods of double-blind research…how could they be sure?
Another little experiment, that our humble administrator alluded to. Suppose we get a group of people, have them give place/date of birth or whatever you like. Next day we give them a horoscope that describes them, and ask them to rate how accurate the horoscope is. James Randi does demonstrations like this all the time…and most people agree that the horoscopes they get are very accurate. But here’s the kicker…everyone gets the same horoscope! He prepared a general purpose profile that would apply to most people, and most people agree that it described them accurately.
The point of the demonstration is to show that an astrologer can give very accurate readings even if they don’t do any calculations or divination simply be giving general advice relevant to most people. Now suppose that I walk in off the street and ask to have a reading. The astrologer, just from my appearance, way of talking, clothes, etc can make their predictios much more accurate. Do I have a wedding ring? New clothes or old clothes? Am I confident or shy? And if an astrologer knows someone well…if they have been coming for advice for a long time…then they can of course give even more information about the person.
OK, so I’ve given you some ideas about how I think astrology works…I have a theory that astrologers use normal methods of human psychology to provide accurate readings. Of course this doesn’t disprove astrology! What I’m saying is that if you want to convince me, we must set up tests where my explanations are ruled out. That’s why the astrologer shouldn’t know who the person is, or anything about them…even the person giving the astrologer the assignment shouldn’t know, because that might give them clues.
Then we also have to protect ourselves against general predictions that would apply to most people. Suppose the astrologer said, “I see…a journey…”, and I said, “Wow! They saw that I just visited Canada!” Of course, most people go on journeys at some point in their lives…if not physical journeys, then perhaps metaphorical ones. So if an astrologer gave this as a reading then most people would try to figure out what part of their lives it applied to. So we can’t simply have the astrologer give a reading and have the subject decide whether it is accurate or inaccurate…and suppose the subject said it was innaccurate, but you thought it was accurate! The result would be ambiguous. So we’d have to agree in advance on how to rate the horoscope for accuracy. Does that make sense?
jabberwalkie
A matter of semantics. In your original scenario, if you managed to give accurate information, you might well think the test was successful. However, someone else might suspect the source of your data, and so think otherwise.
jabberwalkie
All right, then. Let me know if and when you want to go forward. We can set up the protocols via email, then post them for folks around here to see.
TubaDiva
Thanks Tuba. If this comes to pass I’ll email you and let you know exactly how & when.
And would you guys be interested in us posting the progress and results here? And if so, is this the best forum, as the original impetus came from Unca Cec’s column, or would MPSIMS be better?
Ugly
BigAl-: I have absolutely no (properly explainable) idea how astrology works. I am even open to the possibility that i want it to work because it fits in with so many other things that i also want to work!
However, I just dont buy the “planets control our destiny” theory. I think it may be explained thus -
think of the entire solar system(lets not go beyond that) as an intricately linked system. in many systems which are intricately linked, you can observe one section and deduce what another part’s state is or properties are. Maybe this is applicable to astrology. Let me explain further -
astrology , free will, and reincarnation are linked intricately. Based on your karma(correctly pronounced karm with the “a” sounding like the “u” in “but” and the “r” rolled; and meaning “action”) of previous births, you are born with certain traits ,predispositions, and a certain amount of what is commonly called destiny/fate/luck. (you might remember that story of the merchant who goes on a trip;before going he gives one son 10 gold pieces, another 20, and the last 30. i think it is a biblical story. Think of this as the gold you are given.)
To be born with those parameters (for lack of a better word) the “time has to be right”. Everything has its time and place.(god does not play dice!) Now when the time is right, the entire solar system will reflect it. Your birth chart is nothing but the diagram of the position of the planets relative to earth!!! So is it not plausible that by seeing this chart, a skilled astrologer can predict what your “pieces of gold” are worth?
if you do remember that story about the merchant/father, you will remember that on returning, he found the first son has invested the money very shrewdly and increased it to 30 gold. the second has managed to increased it to 40, and the third has simply hidden his 30 in a safe place. The father gave max credit to the first son and chided the third. Why? Because, it is not just what you have - it is what you do with it that counts!!! This is where “free will” meets astrology.
Of course, to agree with me on this you might also have to agree with reincartion; which i feel, is too much to ask of most people out here!!!
I get the feeling that a lot of people here feel that conciousness is a product of life, while i feel it is the other way around.
Also, like i said in the beginning, i made up this theory because it conveniently fits in with the other stuff i want to believe in such as reincarnation, w/o eliminating free will as a possibility!!! ;-D
It does make sense, though, doesnt it?
To be more honest, the clinching factor that makes me believe in astrology, besides the above, is that of all the people who have known me, even if just by acquaintance, astrologers have BY FAR been the only people who have come close to understanding me! i might sound bitter when i say this(though i am not really) but even my parents/relatives dont really know what i am all about, let alone my friends. some people think i am too aggressive, some say i am too introverted. some say i think too much others some say i am too lazy and am good-for-nothing. the only thing everone seems to agree on is that i am pretty intelligent! <smirk>
whatever astrologers have said, on the other hand, has generally matched what i feel about myself. and i assure you, i am a very objective person when it comes to self-observation or self-analysis.
So what do you think of all this C.A. Do i atleast deserve a reply?
The rest of you : whatever terms C.A. and i agree on will be the terms of the experiment. if all of you are actually interested in reaching some semblance of a conclusion in this thing, then i suggest you e-mail him and request him to take notice. I have already emailed him the link to this post, so he is definitely aware of this.
RJK :
That’s the whole reason why C.A. is the best subject for this experiment! None of the TM’s know shit about him!!!
Also, since no one has even seen him, how can i describe his appearance to the astrologer i consult? what possible data could i give to that person which would allow him to make a decision based on “human psychology” ???
Finally, i have already agreed that C.A. does not have to supply his own data. he can give me his neighbour’s sexy 16 year old daughter’s info for all i care. the info should be authentic, that’s all. he shoud not send me his neighbour’s dog’s info!!! However, he has to be the one accepting the challenge.
Dex said
Just the thought of Cecil, standing before a urinal, in shredded rags… :eek:
it seems that despite my requesting C.A. to take a look at this thread, he isnt bothering to. or maybe he has seen it but chosen not to respond.
I request all the TM’s who have been following this post to e-mail C.A. and request him themselves. maybe when he sees the growing interest(?) in this he might decide to do something…
If possible, please notify me via this board that you have emailed C.A.
Thanks, i appreciate any help you may decide to extend.
jab said
Q.E.D.
samclem, i am sorry i did not understand what you meant when you said QED. if i didnt know better then i would say you are supporting me! Could you explain please?
jabberwalkie said:
to which samclem replied:
and jabberwalkie replied in turn:
I think Sam was pointing out that what you said is pretty much an exact example of one of the main things most of us believe about astrology. The reason people believe in it is not because it is so accurate, but because they tell you what you want to hear, or things that are easy to believe.
Ugly
Jabberwalkie,
Thank you for our response (too long to quote here) and I appreciate the fact that you said that it is only one possible theory. It at least indicates that you have given the matter serious thought. However, the basis of your argument (and astrology in general) is that our lives are controlled by some collective force which goes into effect when we are born. That would seem to indicate to me that we could then have an astologer pick a good date and time to be born (say August 13, 2001 at 3 PM) and then work towards having a baby born on that date (with induced labor it shouldn’t be that difficult). Isn’t that a reasonable extension of your theory? You may argue that free will plays an important part too, but that negates the importance of astrology. In other words, what can an astrologer tell about your free will by simply knowing your date of birth, etc? That leans more towards fortune telling, which you may believe in as well, but is a different subject.
As far as being better understood by astrologers, that speaks more for their understanding of human nature. I had an associate who felt the same way about Scientology. Does that make it real?
Ok, but I kind of think Cecil isn’t interested too much in this particular dead horse. The available evidence is very convincing (and not in your favor), and your proposed experiment is nothing new. But I do agree that he is a higher profile target than I am, and to get him to admit error is a much bigger deal. But I wouldn’t hold your breath. Cecil hasn’t had the need to admit error much, and I’d give real long odds this wouldn’t be one of those times.
However, should Cecil not respond, or respond in the negative, or you just want to take the challenge, I’m willing to carry out the test with controls such as I described.
As I said, let me know if & when, and we’ll work out the details.
Ugly
I looks as if a few of jabberwalkie’s question have not been answered.
Here are some links to James Randi:
James Randi Educational Foundation Home Page
Application for the $1 Million Challenge
Newsletter v1 #1 (PDF file, with description and results of dowsing tests in Germany, part 1).
Newsletter v1 #2 (PDF file, with description and results of dowsing tests in Germany, part 2)
QED is an acronym for the Latin Quod Erat Demonstrandum. Roughly translated, “Thus it is demonstrated”. It is often used at the end of a mathematical or logical proof to signal that the proof is over and the thing which was to be demonstrated has been demonstrated. It is also sometimes used to mean something like “from what has been given already, one can deduce the answer”. The latter is the sense in which samclem meant it. It is not surprising, and is probably not evidence in favor or astrology as a science, that astrologers understand you well. Many, probably most, and maybe all astrologers are expert practical psychologists and deductive observers, extracting significant information without the subject realizing it, and feeding back answers that please the subject. See cold reading, My Education as an Astrologer, Guide to “Cold Reading”, Cold Reading, and Cold Reading.
JonF : i have been to three professional psychologists. actually to be precise, two were certified and highly rated psychiatrists, and one was a highly rated Cognitive Behaviour Therapist. None of them came close to understanding me. The C.B.T. , at one point was even open to the possibility that i might be a sociopath!(not same as psychopath, as i had originally thought!)
Whenever i hear a person say that astrologer are skilled at “reading human behaviour” i should say - “i’m from missouri - show me!” (thanks to whoever told me about this saying!)
show me one psychiatrist, just one, who by looking at me, and speaking to me for 10-15 mins can tell me things about myself that absolutely NOBODY has understood - EVER!
no offense meant ; but please man, you guys sound so desperate to explain everything “rationally” (the definition of which differs from person to person), that you say something totally irrational!!!
BigAl : it is impossible to “force” a baby to be born at a particular time, even with an error margin of a few seconds(which can make all the ifference, albeit in extreme cases). ask any doctor who has expertise in this field. you may try your best, but something will go “wrong” and the time will change. pregnancies are difficult to handle by themselves, imagine how it would be when you try to control the “when” not just the “how” or even the “what” !
Also, i dont know anything about maternity,etc. but i seriously doubt inducing labor can allow you to deicde the time. IMHO, it is simply done in borderline cases when the pregnancy is not progressing properly. i could be mistaken though. maybe some doctors here could enlighten us?
However, the biggest discrepancy in your reasoning is that there is no perfect horoscope. each person is born with the chart that is best suitable for him (not same as nicest for him). therefore, if you do manage to induce labor and “force” a person to be born at a particular time, it would be because that was the time when the person is to be born. you would simply be deluding yourself by thinking that you have engineered the birth of a baby at a good time!
of course, this is the chicken-egg syndrome (please, no comments about cecil’s column on this!) so it can be argued both ways. my point about being unable to control the time of birth remains however.
actually, i had all these questions and more when i started considering astrology seriously. most of them have been answered.
JonF : i have been to all those links alredy. i had requested tubadiva to send me the link to that demonstration of astrology by James Randi. I have already visited http://www.randi.org , but could not find it.
also, i was under the impression(thanks to my 7th grade math teacher) that Q.E.D. means “that which has been demonstrated has been proved” (as in by demonstrating something, you have proved it possible). this is why i got confused when Samclem said Q.E.D.
was i wrong, or is this another interpretation of Q.E.D. ?
Well, then why dont i believe my friends, or relatives who think i am a great guy or very intelligent, to be fortune-tellers? a lot of people i know tell me very nice, pleasant things about me, which are true in part.
even if we dont discuss that, your ideas dont explain why, it has happened, that at first i dont agree with what the astrologer has said, but later have found it to be relevant/significant? i cannot give you details about this w/o talking about some very personal stuff, so you have to take my word on this!
Now I’m confused. You’re saying an astrologist can do this? So drawing up a chart is not needed? And if they’re not using a chart, what is the mechanism for them knowing this information? Or are astrologists also psychics? And if a chart is not needed, why do they need the birth information?
Ugly
UGLY - you really need to take a crash course in english comprehension! let me explain -
All of you are saying that astrology is bunk and that all astrologers are simply skilled readers of human behaviour. this implies that obviously the horoscope or chart that is drawn up is not needed or is simply a prop. therefore any other qualified pychiatrist/psychologist should be able to do what i said.
NOW do you get it?