OPEN CHALLENGE to Cecil about astrology by a (different sort of) fanatic.

…all those extra-solar planets that have been discovered lately? They were totally unknown to astrologers and astronomers alike till they were either detected visually or their existence was deduced by observing the path of the star through space.

Do those planets have an influence on us or is it just the planets in our solar system?

And what about asteroids, comets, meteors and the various moons that orbit the other planets? Jupiter has twelve, IIRC, and Saturn nineteen, I think. Do they have an effect on us? If so, how do you account for them all? If they have no effect, why don’t they?

Does Pluto have an influence on us? Does it have any more influence on us than the Moon? Pluto is not only further away than the Moon, it’s also smaller.

Or, in astrololgy, does size not matter?

I’ve been out of town so I have missed all the excitement on this thread.

I’m impressed with the scientific approach that several posters are taking with this subject. However, there is really nothing scientfiic about it. Sorry. It’s just a bunch of mumbo jumbo. All this talk about precession of the equinoxes, etc is irrelevant.

As I have stated before, no matter what event you choose to time (conception or birth) or what time zone you use, the astrologer is using data that describes a point in time and space, not a person. If you somehow can swallow the idea that the planets have a life long effect on a person at the time they are born then how can two people born at the same time and place have different horoscopes? There is nothing in the data that an astrologer uses that is unique to an individual. MLJ talks about different personalities developing, which is obviously true, but how does the astrologer derive that information from the data given to him?

I go back to my point that an astrologer could just as easily develop a horoscope for a non-existant person, if he believed the information was real. In the computer field there is a saying, “garbage in, garbage out”.

To pretend that astrology holds some secret that scientists are anxious to discover is to abandon reason and logic.

Irishman: interesting perspective and statistics on the “fake” horoscopes. I don’t doubt it. As you rightly point out, I am aware that often people believe what they are told, and the more so if there seems to be more effort made in the telling or information-gathering. However, just because someone will believe any/all statements made about him/herself doesn’t necessarily mean that none of the statements are correct. Of course, one of things we are discussing here is: how do we determine if any such statements are correct, and if so, how do recognize them?

It depends on how a general vs specific statement is defined. I try to be a specific/detailed as I can. For instance, here’s an example from a chart I did recently. This person had Mercury and Neptune conjunct (i.e. within 8 degrees of one another) in Scorpio and the First House. Now, a very general interpretation of these elements might go something like: “You have above-average intelligence and are very good with details. You are also very imaginative.” It’s all true, but there is much more information present in that combination of elements than the glib phrases might suggest. They don’t say anything useful and could apply to a lot of people. I try to avoid such general and vague phrases, and to be as specific as possible. Because if I think I know what I’m doing, then I ought to have the courage to report the “facts” (so to speak) as I see them, and take the flack if I turn out to be totally wrong. So the interpretation which I put on the foregoing was: “You are intelligent and quick-minded, but your thought processes are a muddle of logic and imagination. That is, you have the capacity to be detail-oriented and factual, leaving ‘no stone unturned’ in the search for information; but much of the time you are obsessed with inconsequential, but to you fascinating, details, so that you miss the important ones. You end up focussing on how you imagine things to be (and/or develop a picture of how they will be), rather than how they really are (and/or will be) – and so set yourself up for disappointment.”

Granted, there are a lot of people who are like that, too – but I think such an analysis is specific and detailed enough for a person recognize that it doesn’t apply, even if he/she is pre-disposed to acceptance before reading the analysis. The person in question (above) found this interpretation alarmingly correct (we discussed his chart analysis after I had finished with it): he had made a series of career choices (recently) that hadn’t worked out too well, and hadn’t quite figured out why. He knew that something was skewed in the way he went about making these choices; separately, he was aware of some of the foregoing elements in his personality. But he hadn’t “put it all” together like that himself. As far as I know, I arrived at this interpretation by following the “rules” of astrology.

As I said before, maybe it’s not the astrology. But I’m clearly doing something to get this kind of information.

BigAl: sure, a horoscope/chart analysis can be done on any combination of time/date/place, regardless of whether they apply to a real person. The same can be done in science: you can perform statistical analyses on simulated data sets i.e. fake data sets which do not actually represent real samples/systems. My previous supervisor wrote (and published) an entire paper based on simulated combinatorial chemistry data, not a lick of experimentally-generated data anywhere in it. Nobody blinked an eye at that.

You could make up a fake life history for yourself, go to a psychologist with it and get some kind of analysis. Does that completely invalidate the method?

I don’t think we’ve abandoned logic and reason here at all. We’ve been having an interesting discussion about applying logic and reason to demonstrate that what you believe about astrology is actually the case. Some people require more convincing than others, for various reasons. I don’t think that makes us completely illogical or unreasonable.

Did he say the data represented real events? If so then he was a fraud wasn’t he? I have not heard of too many astrologists who would claim their horoscopes are hypothetical. Is that what you are saying now?

The difference is, as I have been saying all along, a psychologist is dealing with data that descibes a person, not a time and place. And, I don’t believe a psychologist would produce an analysis without at least talking to the person. That is valid for a psychologist. If an astrologer needs to talk to a person before doing his “charts” then he is trying to analyze the person and is then using data outside of what is being represented. I have also said I believe that is mostly what the astrologist does. If you want that kind of analysis wouldn’t it be better to go to a person trained in that area (like a psychologist or a counselor) rather than one whose training is in mystical mathematics which have no real bearing on life?

Even voodoo sometimes “cures” people. Does that make it valid for serious debate? Your belief in astrology is based entirely on the results, which are subjective at best. You have no reason to believe that the process is valid other than the fact that you can produce a horoscope which you think is “accurate”. I think it is illogical to pretend that astrology is anything more than a parlor game.

MJH,

I’m glad to see that you stuck around. By all means, keep fighting the good fight.

Okay, let’s review the specific points you and I were making to each other yesterday.

I said, “But sometime look at astrology from our point of view. Look at how much subjectivity it entails.”

You responded along the lines of, “I do look at it from your point of view.” But then you said, “But you see, from my point of view and personal experience, there is something there.”

To me, that’s the wrong answer. Once you talk about personal experience, you’re indulging in subjectivity again. I would prefer you to look at astrology objectively.

Basically, your argument throughout all your various posts (as I read them) consists largely of the following: “Astrology works for me and it works for the people I do readings for. And until you step into my shoes and get to know it as well as I do, you simply aren’t in a position to judge astrology knowledgeably.

However, that argument is meaningless to me. It is subjective. It is anecdotal. It is based on personal experience that is unsupported by any objective scientific data.

I have no problem if you want to believe in astrology, or the Loch Ness monster, or leprechauns, or whatever. But that’s all subjective. It’s a personal belief, a personal feeling that something is working for you. For me, I need some objective data on something before I’m going to put my faith in it. I need some kind of objective, scientific evidence of the existence of those things. Your personal “feeling” or “experience” simply isn’t enough for me.

Look at what happens in one of your readings. You believe in astrology, and so does the other person. It’s no surprise to me that both of you come away from the reading with the feeling that it worked for you two. However, that’s not a proof of that astrology works. It could just as easily be a proof of the power of gullibility and mutual self-persuasion.

Look at the study that Cecil Adams cited in his column: “In one study of 22 astrology buffs, half were presented with their real horoscopes and half were presented with fake charts saying the exact opposite. Both groups said their horoscopes were 96 to 97 percent accurate.” There’s no other way to read that other than proof of the gullibility of those who believe in astrology.

Look at the example of my own sister. For almost 20 years (from her late teens to her late thirties) she was satisfied enough with her own castings and readings to invest substantial time and energy in astrology. That is, she was satisfied until she found out that she was working with the wrong birth date, and suddenly she had proof of 20 years of her own gullibility.

Let me try to sum up now. The powers of human persuasion are enormous. But human persuasion can also lead to enormous mistakes. That’s why we differentiate between the subjective and the objective. That’s why we differentiate between “personal experience” and science.

If astrology was something new and unknown and science still hadn’t examined it sufficiently, then I would be willing to give astrology the benefit of the doubt. But astrology has been around in one form or another for a thousand years or more, and science has examined it from every angle and consisently found nothing there in terms of objective positive results.

And all your attempts to convince me of your personal experience with astrology are meaningless to me because I know how strong the powers of self-persuasion and gullibility can be. Hell, I’ve personally been in a position where I’ve had to retract or drop a personal belief or feeling when faced with scientific evidence to the contrary. We all have at one time or another.

I see in you a person who simply insists on clinging to subjective personal feelings, gullibility, and the powers of self-persuasion despite clear and long-standing objective scientific evidence to the contrary.

P.S. By the way, this isn’t a personal attack. You seem like a genuinely nice guy. I’m just trying to emphasize the difference between the subjective arguments you are putting forward and the objective evidence I need to see before I can treat astrology as anything other than a sucker’s bet.

Your Latin’s a bit rusty, MJH:

Q.E.D. = Quod erat demonstrandum, as Danielinthewolvesden and JonF said. And it means “which was to have been demonstrated”

JTR: Thanks for the summing-up. Pretty much on-target. For the most part, I do see your points (whether or not I have been entirely swayed by then as yet), and agree that you have presented objective arguments without indulging in personal attacks. I have the sense that you have read through the things I have written, pondered them and returned with a thoughtful response. I haven’t been trying to persuade you out of your own point of view; just explaining my own. Obviously we can’t have a meaningful discussion otherwise.

But let me clarify one thing: I was not trying to dismiss your objective arguments and scientific evidence (which, I admit, I have yet to review thoroughly) by “clinging” to personal experience. Rather, in pointing to my personal experience, I am saying: even if I am convinced that astrology is bull ca-ca [sp?], there are some things in my personal experience which bear explaining. Maybe, as you say, I underestimate the power of “gullibility” and self-persuasion. At this stage, I find that hard to accept; but I agree that it is possible. All I’m getting at here is: I’ve climbed up onto the fence, which is something. Give me a little time to sort out which side of the fence is which. If I have been “deluding” myself all this time, that isn’t going to disappear overnight. Since, unlike your sister, I haven’t had that one overwhelmingly negative experience which demonstrates to me the extent of my folly.

BigAl: I see what you are saying: astrological interpretations are based on something which has no apparent connection to the individual. Scientifically, then, this does create a problem: if the connection between the “data” (time/date/place of birth, and resultant chart) and the subject can’t be demonstrated by independent means, then we can’t say that a connection exists. That is a perfectly legitimate argument. But that is not quite how you phrased it yesterday – or least not how I understood you.

What I was getting at yesterday was: the ability of a(ny} system to generate a false result from false data (“garbage in, garbage out”) does not in itself discredit the system (although, as I say above, other issues could). Thus you could take the Myers-Brigg test and answer the questions totally at random, without paying any attention to them, and generate a false personality profile. Your answers would have no connection to any real individual (of whom you are aware), but your answers would be interpreted as if they did. The person administering the test and assessing the results would have no method for gauging the “correctness” of your answers and the result. Applying this to astrology, then: you could give me false birth data and say it is your own. I could generate a chart and an accompanying analysis. I have no way of knowing that you have not given me correct information. This does not prove or disprove anything (about astrology or the M-B), except that each system is flexible enough to accept any input and generate a result. On the other hand, I do not knowingly generate a chart from random/false birth data and try to pass it off as belonging to a real person.

Now, I agree that the connection between the M-B test questions and the resultant personality analysis is known and demonstrable; whereas the connection between astrology and personality has not been demonstrated and therefore one is obliged to conclude that it is non-existent. Or putting it another way: it is generally accepted that the M-B test will give accurate results if the test is taken properly; therefore if the result is inaccurate, one suspects that the data/answers given were not truly representative of the individual. Whereas astrology typically does not suspect the given data (or applied method) if the result is inaccurate – or you might go further and say that astrology does not even allow for inaccuracy. But that is a rather different point than saying that “Garbage in, garbage out” proves that a system is worthless.

This is not a defense of astrology, just a small point of logic. If you are going to accuse me of abandoning logic, then you had better stick it pretty closely (and clearly) yourself in making your case.

Anyway, my thanks to all for an interesting and truly enlightening debate. In my answer to BigAl, I think I can already see where I am headed with this. But, like most of us I would imagine, I am worn out. My brain hurts; I have a lot to think about.

But if somewhere down the road, you hear a former astrologer railing against ignorance, think of me.

Well spoken, MJH. I will slip away from the debate at this point. I’ve said my piece as best I can. Please be assured that I respect you and your position and that I’m very grateful for the opportunity to debate such a thoughtful, articulate, and intelligent opponent. Again, I wish you all the best.

MJH,

As you obviously know, the expression “garbage in, garbage out” means that the output will be wrong if the input is wrong, even if the process is correct. I used it in the context that, even if you accept the premise that astrology works (the process), it will still produce a horoscope that seems real (the output) from invalid dates and locations (the input). Perhaps this is not the best use of the expression.

I agree that there are many other processes which will do this as well. The difference is that these processes produce consistent results. In the example that you gave (the Myers-Brigg test) if two people answer the questions exactly the same way (even if incorrectly) then the result will be the same for both of them. This is not so with astrology. Two people with the same input (twins for example) have different horoscopes. How can this be unless the process is using data that is not being revealed or contains random events? Either way it is not a process that can not be trusted.

Hmm, as much as I keep saying I’m finished, I keep coming back to this thread to see what’s new. It’s almost like a bad traffic accident; you know you shouldn’t look, but sometimes you can’t help yourself.

I don’t really mean that this thread (and all of its participants) are the virtual equivalent of a traffic accident… but this really has to be my last word.

BigAl, thanks. Now I understand what your point is/was. So I am glad to have clarified that with you. If I may, though, correct what is probably a common misconception about the astrology of twins – namely, that they have identical charts. This is not necessarily true. Twins are not typically born at the exact same time, but can be minutes or even hours apart. As I said in my first post to this thread, while seconds (of clock time) will not make a difference, minutes can. Thus, the charts of twins will be quite similar – more so than any other two, non-twin people – but may contain significant (from an astrological point of view) differences. So this would not necessarily be a case of obtaining two different results from the same data.

In my first post I also made some remarks about estimated birth time – which, as you might imagine, would be a problem if one wanted to study differences between twins. But this falls under the umbrella of our earlier discussion i.e. how to deal with false, faulty or potentially inaccurate/imprecise data. On this point I think we’d agree: if there is a known uncertainty on the input, you have to be very careful how you interpret the output. Or abandon the attempt altogether.

So long, BigAl. Thanks again for the interesting discussion. Have a great Labo(u)r Day weekend, if you happen to live in North America. If not, have a great weekend.

Bye.

That, or you’re deliberately avoiding my questions. So, here they are again:

Now, will you please answer me, MJH?

Jabberwalkie (who started this whole thing) said that the time of birth was considered to be when the baby first cried. If this is so then it would be possible to have several people with the same birth time. If not then what event is considered “birth”?

Also, if minutes do make a difference, then there is no way the data would be accurate enough to produce meaningful results. We just don’t keep birth records that accurately. Has there ever been a study which correlates accuracy of birth information to accuracy of horoscope? How do you know when you get a horoscope that it is truly about you?

I think you are beginning to understand that there is nothing about astrology that objectively makes a lot of sense. People who defend astrology do so based on the fact that they feel the horoscope tells them things that they think are true. But I’ve heard people say the same thing about scientology.

There. End of story.

I had said that the baby’s first cry is taken as the time of birth, because I (mistakenly) assumed that the baby’s first breath is when it cries. Atleast to hindu(vedic) astrology, the time of birth is taken as the time when the baby took its first breath.
MJH: You are probably not around to even see this, let alone reply, but I’d like to ask you for a favour anyway!
I have never had my horoscope analysed using western astrology. I am curious to know whether the results would match what i have been hearing from vedic astrologers.
It probably sounds cheap to request your help through this forum, but its worth a shot, i guess!
Please let me know if you want my details.

Jabberwalkie: sorry, but I can’t accommodate your request. I have too many other (non-astrological) projects as it is, and I don’t have the time to devote to a proper chart analysis for you. But it would be an interesting exercise.

Jab1: I wasn’t avoiding your questions, I just didn’t have a lot of time last week to answer. My apologies. Let me try to answer you here.

Re: size vs influence. I think I touched on this topic in my answer to your last post regarding the modern planets (Uranus, Neptune, Pluto). Yes, Pluto generally has less influence on the individual than the Moon. Qualitatively speaking (since I don’t have a “formula” for this at my fingertips), a planet’s relative influence is a combined effect of its proximity to earth, its size and its apparent speed of motion through the zodiac. Astrology definitely does not give equal weight to each planet/chart feature; there is a “pecking order”.

Regarding planetary moons, extra-solar planets, comets, and other objects: I am not certain about planetary moon-studies, but I think one assumes that the perceived planetary influence (of, say, Jupiter) is actually the influence of Jupiter-plus-moons. Studies of asteroids and other “rogue” bodies have been done and reference works are available for incorporating those influences into the overall chart analysis. There are astrologers who study the effects (if any) of extra-solar objects such as comets, quasars, etc.; one presumes that this will eventually, if it does not already, extend to the recently discovered extra-solar planets. As with any body of knowledge, when discoveries are made one must assess their impact on the existing whole; they do not invalidate what came before per se. As I said earlier, the discovery of relativity did not completely invalidate Newtonian physics; the discovery of extra-solar planets does not invalidate astronomical theories about our own solar system. Advances in the understanding of the biochemical and psychological functions of the brain do not invalidate psychology as a whole. Science is enriched and expanded by new knowledge, and it adapts. Likewise, there is no reason to assume that current astrological theory cannot incorporate the effects of extra-solar objects.

But how do you propose that astrologers should conduct this research? As BigAl suggests, a study to correlate the accuracy of birth info to chart accuracy would be interesting (as would some of the other ideas we have discussed here) – but since astrology is outside the academic and scientific mainstream, where are astrologers supposed to find the resources to do this? Even if I had the time, I don’t have the resources to conduct my own studies; and I seriously doubt any of you would want to contribute your own money to finance them. And not for entirely “objective” reasons, either.

This brings me to what I think is the real issue here. I have listened to what all of you have had to say. I have tried to answer your questions to the best of my knowledge. I have acknowledged that your points of view have validity, should not dismissed out of hand, should be investigated. I have admitted that perhaps my own experiences can be attributed to something besides astrology, and that this bears further consideration on my part. I don’t hear the same from most of you in return. Instead all I keep hearing (in the end) is that I am being illogical, non-objective, unscientific.

Are your own objections to astrology entirely objective? BigAl, where are your objections rooted: in the “garbage in, garbage out” idea? In your misconceived notion that birth charts of twins are identical? That people with identical charts have identical personalities throughout their lives (something which I have not postulated)? That birth data cannot be accurate enough for a good chart analysis (though since you know nothing of how a birth chart is calculated and interpreted, I don’t know on what you base this idea)? Each time I answer your technical questions or correct your misinformation, you shift to a new objection. You want to say that astrology can’t work because you don’t see how there can be a connection between birth data and personality. Granted, the connection is counter-intuitive; but then, the theory of relativity was not “intuitive” from the perspective of Newtonian physics. Why should the experience of time be dependent upon velocity? Ultimately, we don’t know; yes, we have demonstrated that the theory is correct and have formulas to describe the effect. But we don’t know why the Universe works that way – any more than we know why gravity attracts rather than repels objects. That’s just the way things are. To say, “Because I can’t perceive how or why these things are connected means that they aren’t,” is at best unscientific; at worst it is arrogant.

Basically, you just don’t want to believe that astrology works. How is that any more objective than my point of view? What technical expertise do you bring to this forum that makes you any more qualified to render a valid opinion than I?

If we were having this discussion about something other than astrology – chemistry, for instance – the differences of opinion we have would be called a “scientific debate”. (Or perhaps even more importantly: if you didn’t know anything about chemistry, you’d have the sense not to offer an opinion at all.) Regardless of what you might think, Science as it defined today is not an absolute thing; the ideal of the objective scientist is just that – an ideal. Even in day-to-day science (such as I perform in my job), this is hard to achieve. I am working within a fairly well-defined and well-understood set of parameters; but often I am presented with new data, something which has not been specifically observed before. I have to draw upon my experience, and the knowledge available to me, and make a judgement call. This is a subjective activity, but within the boundaries of self-defined Science it is acceptable.

Consider how science operates on its fringes – where theory and the technological proof of theory are strained to the limits. Eddington’s original proof of relativity was not a simple, straight-forward or uncontroversial thing. His hypothesis was sound; but gathering data to assess it strained the limits of the available technology. The data had other, non-relativistic effects on it which had to be accounted for – and the data adjusted accordingly – before he could proceed to analyze the data for evidence of relativistic effects. These adjustments to the data were, in his mind, scientifically sound, but not everyone agreed with him – some on equally scientific grounds, others on personal/subjective grounds (relativity was a threatening idea!). Regardless, these disagreements were considered a “scientific debate” through which the proof of relativity by other means was eventually found and Eddington’s work vindicated.

The study of astrology by Science falls into this same “fringe” realm, because Science a priori cannot/does not intuitively theorize why birth data and personality might be connected. But, as with relativity, any inquiry into astrology which would claim to be “scientific” must suspend this “disbelief” and proceed in an open-minded fashion. This does not appear to have occurred. Either studies were conducted in total ignorance of astrological theory and prediction (which, no matter what one “believes”, cannot be properly tested unless one first understands them); or negative results in one area were taken as invalidation of the entire subject (e.g. Gauquelin’s so-called “Mars effect”); or positive results were attributed to other factors, without any attempt to demonstrate that those effects were significant enough to explain the positive result (e.g. self-attribution or self-delusion).

If Science approached other areas in this way, the work would be dismissed as bad science. Period. Eddington could not have investigated relativity without some understanding of physics, astronomy and relativistic theory (regardless of what he “believed”). Gauquelin’s work on the correlation between Mars and athletic “champions” was a new astrological hypothesis which his data did not bear out; and he misrepresented the data and the results in the process. If Eddington had done this with his results (and some thought he had), his conclusion would have been dismissed as apropos to nothing and perhaps his reputation as a scientist called into question; but relativity and physics as a whole would remain inviolate. Likewise, some scientists suggest that observed correlations between Sun-sign and various personality traits (in psychological studies of this area) could be explained as “self-attribution”. Perhaps this is so; but before one can conclude this with any reasonable certainty, one must first demonstrate that the potential for self-attribution is sufficiently large to account for the apparent correlation, which was not done. One cannot draw conclusions from the results – for or against astrology – until one has done so.

My point is not that astrology works or doesn’t work. My point is that Science does not conduct itself according to its own principles when dealing with astrology. Our small-scale discussion in this thread has demonstrated this larger-scale issue.

Or to put it another way: I have bothered to learn Science – including chemistry, physics, mathematics, history of Science, philosophy of Science – as well as astrology. My views are not rooted in ignorance of one or both subjects, nor in a blind or misinformed belief (or disbelief) of either subject. If ever any of you can say the same, let me know. Until then, I really have no more to say.

True; but the problem I have, and most people have, is establishing whether there is any validity to what came before.

It has been conducted, and hasn’t panned out. There’s competition for limited research funds, and funds are allocated where there is at least no compelling reason to beleive that the money would be wasted. If the astrologers want to continue it, there’s lots of money going into astrologers; let them spend some of it to fund research.

I say that astrology doesn’t work because it has been shown that there is no statistically significant correlation between astrological predictions and reality. I find this conclusion reasonable partly because I can’t conceive of any manner in which astrology could work, but I do not draw my negative conclusion from my lack of being able to think of a mechanism. If a statistically significant correlation were shown, then I ( and many others) would have to re-think.

Well, I’ve taken basic and advanced statistics course, and can prove that I know more about statistics and experimental design than the vast majority of astrology-beleivers who have written technical papers on astrology.

As an example, take Who Will Survive? (I’ve posted this URL before in this thread). Nobody has taken up my off-hand challenge to find a fatal flaw in the first two paragraphs. OK, here’s a more formal challenge: if you can’t find at least one of the two fatal flaws that I found in that paper, then you don’t know enough to critique a study of astrology. What are the fatal flaws in that study?

It appears that you haven’t looked up many references. Many scientific studies were conducted on the work of professional astrologers, some of whom were about as qualified as one can be in astrology. And statistics is about separating our beliefs from reality; a competent statistican can analyze data no matter what his/her beliefs are.

MJH, I hope you don’t think we’re all just attacking you for the sake of attack. You’re right, in a perfect world where we could research everything we wanted, we should research things like astrology, to see if they work or not. Perhaps this research has already been done, of course, in which case we might not be able to justify the expenditure of resources in testing it again under different conditions. By the way, you don’t need to restrict all of your time on this board to this one thread… You seem like a rational guy, who could provide valuable input on many other subjects (try the General Questions forum). Heck, you might even agree with everyone on some of them :).

JonF, I’m not sure if this is the same fatal flaw that you saw in the “Who Will Survive” study, but the biggest one I saw was that it was done post-priori. It’s no test of a method to use it in retrospect to make “predictions” that have already occured.

Close … it’s valid to make post-priori predictions (e.g. using Relativity to “predict” the results of the Michelson-Morley experiment). However, it is not valid to conduct a test of this sort un-blinded because there is strong reason to suspect that the beliefs of the investigator affect the results, consciously or subconsciously.

I thought of another fatal flaw, so I’m still thinking of two as-yet-undetected flaws … maybe we should leave them for MJH to detect?

MJH -

You said

I will try once more to explain my objection. I don’t believe that the birth charts of twins are identical. What I am saying is they should be identical. The astrologer is using the same data for both charts so how can he come up with different results? The fact that they are different means that astrology is, at best, inconsistant. How could it then be useful? I might as well rely on fortune cookies. At least they usually have an upbeat message.

As for the accuracy of the birth data being relevant. Either it is or it isn’t. You and Jabberwalkie keep going back and forth on this issue. I admit that I don’t know how a birth chart is calculated but if isn’t based on the birth data then what the hell is it based on? If the birth data is not important then why even use it? Just admit you’re making the whole thing up and be done with it.

Another reason that I have trouble swallowing astrology is its origin. It was developed hundreds of years ago by people who had no knowledge of science. What could they have possibly based their ideas on? Was it it a divine revelation? Did someone wake up one day and realize that our lives are controlled by the planets and here’s the formula? If not, how did someone make the connection? Observations? Of what? The planets and stars are fairly easy to follow but how do you then determine how they effect peoples’ lives? You can make guesses but then how do you objectivly verify the results and make corrections to the process? I just don’t see how this complex system that you are describing could have developed. Perhaps you could shed some light on it for me.