Opening schools

The Quarantine Zone
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A local blogger had an interesting post this morning. He talks about the “new daily cases per 10,000 people on the date of school reopening” for various countries. Some were considered low-rate nations: France was at 0.09, South Korea at 0.07. Some were medium-rate: Norway at 0.67, Denmark at 0.34. Some were high-rate: Germany, at 1.51.

As of July 11, the US is at 18.7, and North Carolina is at 23.5.

There’s some significant difference between these nations, and it may not be appropriate to draw conclusions based on their experiences.

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Thanks for that. It puts numbers on something I have been wondering about.

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Holy… :grimacing:

On the news today I heard the positivity rate in AZ is now 25%+. This may be paywalled (5 free articles or something).

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A while back, WHO said a good rule of thumb (rather than calculating exact % of the population you’re getting) was if your testing was showing under 10% then you’re doing enough testing. Wonder if that advice is useful with a raging sweep across the land.

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Some school reopening headlines. The approaches in each area vary widely from in-person learning with social distancing not required to online learning only.

The change in emphasis is notable, and a couple articles I’ve read are calling it a walk back.

https://www.axios.com/los-angeles-san-diego-schools-reopen-9c8db4ef-7c3f-41b3-be3d-88859fc37829.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100

Some Texas teachers are writing their wills in preparation for start of school.

From a teacher in the comments on Reddit:

Atlanta is proposing online learning only with a two week delay of classes.

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Right now, districts are offering an on-line and in-person option. They seem to be thinking those streams will be separate: like, there’s a virtual Chem class that all on-line kids are in, rather than each chem teacher teaching an in person class and running an on-line version for kids who would normally be at that campus. This makes sense, because on line and at home are really different beasts and its silly for each teacher to independently figure out how to do both.

However, if we start school on two modes, and then have to close schools after a few weeks, we will have virtual school kids and school at home kids, which is even weirder. Or reassign everyone to virtual, using whatever systems they have worked out? It will be a total mess.

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Fake news! This is why Trump is leaving the WHO.

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Those education board guys in OC are certifiably mad, it is clear that they listened to conspiracy theorists and anti-science yahoos, because the experts they claimed they asked about the use of masks (for example) have come to distance or disown the report that the Orange County board of education spitted out.

The panel downplayed the infectiousness and impact COVID-19 among children, and concluded that teachers are more at risk of getting sick from another teacher or staff member than they are from children.

One of the listed experts, Dr. Steven Abelowitz, issued a statement saying his comments were “either misunderstood or misinterpreted.” Abelowitz said he is a “staunch advocate” for face coverings to help stop the spread of coronavirus. He added he believes social distancing is “also an effective tool in slowing and limiting the spread of COVID-19.”

Dr. Clayton Chau, the director of the Orange County Health Care Agency as well as the interim county health officer, was also one of the listed experts but distanced himself from the report.

“I served as part of a discussion panel after being invited to attend a meeting of the Orange County Board of Education. I believe that schools should follow guidelines set by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the California Department of Public Health related to reopening, and did not state that social distancing isn’t necessary,” Chau said.

“I continue to be a strong proponent for public health prevention measures to help slow the spread of COVID-19 in all settings, including frequent handwashing, physical distancing from those who do not live in the same household, wearing face coverings, covering coughs and sneezes and avoiding touching faces with unwashed hands.”

Ed Sibby, spokesman for the California Teachers Association’s Southern California branch, said the union is skeptical of any plans to reopen schools at this time.

“We don’t see the efficacy of sending students and educators back to school until it’s safe to open the schools,” Sibby said.

“Orange County’s board seeks to pander to the forces of the federal government and (Secretary of Education) Betsy DeVos. We can’t control that, but what we can control is how we care about our kids and the safety of our members and continue to advocate for them both.”

Superintendents throughout Orange County are opposed to a rush to reopen schools, Sibby said.

Dr. Dan Cooper, a UC Irvine professor of pediatrics, told City News Service he supports children returning to school, but only if there is a plan that includes social distancing, face coverings, and what to do if there is an outbreak.

Cooper said the board’s recommendation is a “nonsensical approach” to COVID-19.

“I hate to say this because it’s one of those pejorative phrases, but there will be blood on their hands” if any school districts adopt the recommendations, Cooper said. “Just because of their arrogance and hubris. It’s something that just disturbs me.”

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I teach high school in Texas in the Fort Worth area, which is a bit of a hot spot right now, so I’m getting a little worried. Our classes start up in about five weeks. As far as safety protocols for on-campus classes, we have been given almost no details yet about how that is going to work. I did see a notice on our district website about wearing masks on campus. It essentially says that masks are encouraged, but there will be no disciplinary actions or other enforcement for students who do not wear masks. Great.
We are offering online-only learning as an option, too, but I don’t know yet how many students are going to take that route.

One thing that has occurred to me: Students who choose on-campus classes–in this environment–may be more likely to be the types who do NOT follow smart safety policies outside of school–like social distancing and wearing masks in public. They may come from families in which their parents and siblings are likewise not being careful. So we may be concentrating those kids who are more likely to be ‘spreaders’ in our classrooms, while those who are more cautious are going to take the online-only option. I know there are other reasons a student may choose on-campus learning, but we do have a lot of families around here who are just going to want to do what their God King Trump says they should do–send kids back to school–and damn the consequences on the teachers.

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My son’s school district just voted to have all distance learning for the start of the year.

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This from Illinois, where we are just getting some sort of a little grip on this thing:
"According to officials, Lake Zurich High School began holding athletic camps on July 6. During the intake prospect at the camp, multiple students were turned away during health screenings because they had symptoms of COVID-19, and other students began experiencing symptoms during the day and were sent home.
The next day, all camps at the school were closed until further notice, and case investigations and contact tracing efforts were launched to determine the spread of the virus.
In all, 36 students have tested positive for the virus so far. Officials say that the students contracted the virus after attending the camp, or possibly after attending social gatherings in recent days. "

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Israeli Data Show School Openings Were a Disaster That Wiped Out Lockdown Gains

The source of the infection explosion can be seen clearly in the numbers from June. As Kliner told the Knesset, 1,400 Israelis were diagnosed with the disease last month. Of those, 185 caught it at events such as weddings, 128 in hospitals, 113 in workplaces, 108 in restaurants, bars, or nightclubs, and 116 in synagogues, according to Kliner, while 657—which is to say 47 percent of the total—were infected by the coronavirus in schools.

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The Austin Public Health Authority paints a scary picture for schools opening. (Sorry I can’t find the original source, it looks like it might be a slide show.) They predict that schools opening will lead to 70% of students getting Covid-19, leading to 40 to 1370 deaths (0.03 – 1.02%) out of 192,000 students.

That is an estimated mortality rate of 20/100,000 to 713/100,000. To put that in perspective, in 2017 the death rate for kids 5-14 was 13.6/100,000 and for 15-19 was 51.5/100,000. So even at the lowest end, those numbers represent a big jump in mortality.

70% and 1.02% seem like a high numbers, but I don’t have an MD or masters in public health, so my feeling isn’t really educated. That is also “over the course of the disease,” not in the first month of school. I guess the thought is that as long as vulnerable kids continue to go to school, and the disease is spreading at school, they will keep getting infected.

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School openings have become a little morbid.

https://hillreporter.com/covid-19-death-liability-waiver-now-part-of-school-enrollment-package-73517

At least one district sent out a waiver, another did for just athletes, and one district sent the waiver out and then recalled them after a backlash from parents.

In Florida, an attorney firm is giving free services to teachers to create living wills.

while the Governor of Florida tells everyone that reopening the schools is safe, although the message in the article is less definitive.

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At least in Orange County the various school districts are telling the County BoE to pound sand. Santa Ana and Anaheim SDs (#2 and #3 in size in the county) flat out refused to open along the county’s guidelines. A good dozen smaller districts have followed along.

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They thought having athletic teams this fall, let alone having athletic camps, would be a good idea?

Whatever forms of social distancing are possible to enforce in a classroom, forget that when it comes to school athletics. From huddles to locker rooms, there’s just no way to do it. And of course, masking while doing athletics is right out.

Might as well just have school-sponsored Covid parties.

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Around here they are doing mostly conditioning and at least in theory wearing masks, staying 6 ft away. Lots of precautions.

We are still seeing outbreaks within teams.

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Overall it seems that they are following the lead of many states in their overall opening with their “first the bars!” approach.

To be more accurate, I’ve seen it all over the place but many club sports for teens have had full practices. Most football teams around here are doing spaced outdoor conditioning only … but not all. Weirdly enough they held off longer on cross country teams … who could easily run distanced (as well as distances of course). Still sports or no sports, school or no school, these kids are getting together socially and on top of each other there. I’ve been getting lots and lots of requests for testing based on someone in the friend group having tested positive and such. So far rare positives.

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Following up on that “first the bars!” thought - I can completely endorse the positions of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine.

High School football should not be first phase any more than bars should be. OTOH I highly doubt that these are the kids who will be staying in their homes away from groups of other teens on an ongoing basis when there is not school in session in any case.

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That’s true, but football teams are big groups, like 50 or more at practice, and it’s mixing kids who might not otherwise see each other . . Who then go see those other kids. This will be really exacerbated if we actually have a season, because they will be traveling to other high schools, maybe other towns, rubbing against each other, and then riding home.

And kids hanging out are not really comparable to the amount of yelling, panting, potentially mixing of water bottles and towels, shared rides, etc, that go with football practice. Even worse, football has such a fuck you macho culture, they will probably flout half the shit they actually can do to mitigate things.