I sure hope I wrong, but I think there is a good chance there will be a surge of covid cases among kids when school is back in session in places where mask mandates are banned and kids won’t be wearing masks.
Am I likely wrong or right?
If I’m right, I sure do hope the cases aren’t severe. However, they are likely to pass it to unvaccinated adults that may not do so well.
In my opinion you’re correct.
Absolutely right. This is a complete no-brainer. Every time society has relaxed since the pandemic hit, it came roaring back. Every damned time. I pray the situation holds with kids being least affected, but we’re always just a mutation away from things turning in a very ugly direction.
I desperately want my kids back in school next week, but I would support another lockdown, and I fear the case numbers will support this in 3-4 more weeks.
I suspect this is right. But it’s anybody’s guess as to what this might look like. It’s true that many adults are unvaccinated, but does anybody know how many unexposed AND unvaccinated adults remain?
I reckon we’re about to find out.
The weather change won’t help either.
I’m concerned that one of these variants is going to hit kids harder. Even if it doesn’t, we are seeing the age of deaths appearing to drop - in part because people 65+ got vaccinated in higher numbers than the 18-65s. Since under 12s can’t get vaccinated at all yet, they are likely to show up as more than the blip in severe cases than they were last year.
And then you have the additional issue of kids who aren’t in great health to start with.
And, to make it even worse, when asymptomatic kids pass it to unvaccinated adults and infected rates in adults spikes, a lot of people aren’t going to make the connection. Now, I can understand why a layperson might not think about the fact that they got sick because their co-worker got sick and their co-worker got it from their kid, which they mentioned had a funny cough for the past few days. But lets watch red states dance around the connection as public health officials point it out to them left and right.
Kinda like when anti-covid people tried to explain the virtually non-existent flu season last fall without admitting that perhaps masks, distancing and work/school from home actually played a role in preventing the spread of a virus.
I sleep much better knowing my 15 year old daughter is fully vaxxed.
For about 75% of this pandemic it’s been pretty clear that schools are not much of a source of outbreak and that kids under 15 aren’t at much personal risk or particularly contagious when they do have covid. Throughout, there’s been a bunch of people constantly saying “what if” and pointing to isolated incidences as proof it’s a disaster waiting to happen.
My prediction: School openings will not cause a surge. If a bad surge happens, it is not a good idea to open schools, and a bunch of people will retroactively blame school openings for it.
We’ve seen some of that in summer camp, one in upstate NY was originally reported at 31 cases and now up to 100 which was like 2 days later.
I think the delta variant may make a difference. 1260 times the viral load = WAY more transmissable.
It’s certainly possible but since we are still basically clueless about why children are less vulnerable and contagious to covid, it’s just a wild guess.
worst nightmare is a new varient that is much more effective at damaging young kids.
I can imagine worse nightmares but yes, that would be bad.
In the long run, that might be a good thing, actually. I’ve said since the earliest days of the pandemic that if it was more deadly it might kill fewer people overall because we would take it more seriously.
If kids were getting sick and dying in larger numbers, I think we’d see a lot more vaccination and isolation, potentially leading to fewer deaths overall.
I don’t think we are clueless. There are lots of diseases that are less severe in children, including hepatitis A and mumps. In the case of covid, it seems to be because children have a more active innate immune system than adults, and that seems to help against covid. (Adults have more acquired immunity than children, so they don’t usually need as aggressive an innate immune system.)
There are a lot of reports of Delta being worse for young adults than earlier variants. I haven’t heard much about kids. But i bet someone knows.
I observe that the CDC is now recommending that everyone wear a mask at school. I wish they were also recommending beefed up ventilation in the schools. But it’s something.
Anecdotally, I can tell you that a bunch of schools have, in fact, beefed up their ventilation systems. I think it’s because it’s a relatively simple thing that they can do, that they can point to to say “See, we’re doing everything we can!”.
I’ve seen that suggested. Also that children’s more frequent exposure to other coronaviruses has their immune system partially primed. Those are the two main possible explanations but I don’t remember it being locked down.
I think the “more frequent exposure” is spurious. Otherwise we’d see a big divide with parents and school teachers being less susceptible than other adults the same age. We’d also see people in cities who use public transit, and prisoners, and people who use homeless shelters being less susceptible.
Children are known to have a more robust innate immune system. That’s fit to be at least a large part of the difference.
Children distinctly have more frequent colds than adults. I’ve never seen a caveat saying “except for parents and people using public transit”.
Parents and people using public transit absolutely have not colds, too. Or are you saying something else?
I’m saying children get double the colds per year that the average adults does. Are you saying parents and bus riders approach that?
And has anyone actually looked at covid rates among bus riders vs car drivers? Parents vs non?
In my experience, parents get sick nearly as often as their kids. 