Opening schools

Nope, the point was that the ones that are sure that students are not contagious are not really on very solid ground as they assume. Hence, why we need to be cautious as many districts in the USA are going to, at least in the first weeks of school.

In any case, read again what I posted, my mayor point is that even if students are not so contagious, the increase in contacts points to not individual students as mayor spreaders, but with the students as a group. And not necessarily dangerous to each other, but to the adults in the schools and in the homes of the students.

Actually, until we have solid info on viral load/contagiousness, your objection is what’s not on solid ground.

Uh, wrong again, what it leads one to be very cautious. Again, uncertainty is really not the friend of the proponents of opening schools when one sees what is going on with the resurgence of the pandemic in the USA.

85 infants under the age of 1 in one county in Texas have tested positive for coronavirus.

From what I can find, they don’t say the source of the spread. Since the babies aren’t going to the same bar, are the parents? Is this from daycare?

Most of the early studies we’ve seen about the infection rates in children have come out of Europe. I’ve been wondering why there are so few US studies, or even attempts at finding the source of the spread of infection.

Despite the lack of studies, there appear to an increasing number of articles about children testing positive for the virus. The long term effects of the virus are still not known.

Yeah, no. You can choose whatever you like to make you cautious but the facts are, we haven’t linked children to big outbreaks. Your link shows “but maybe they could!”.

Again, you are ignoring that I mentioned what happened in Israel, in other places that you are pointing at things such as lower rate of infection in the community, testing (testing and more testing - did I mention testing?) less students in the classrooms, are more conductve to get data that does point at proper things that need to be done while opening schools.

All that is at innadecuate levels in the USA, hence why there is really no good examples or as the virologist in Germany report, no reliable studies to use yet to base how safe opening schools would be in the USA regarding students. As for other items, such as rate of infection in the community and the age and conditions many teachers have, the situation has not changed much. There is a need for better support and testing availability to make it safe for the adults in the frontline.

That students can increase the infection rate of the community or increase the danger to themselves is for now not a really a sure thing when the rates are not very well known, it is another thing that I see many are willing to bet with. A choice that if it is wrong it can be added to the current mismanagement of the crisis.

Yes, I’m ignoring what you said about what happened in Israel. Because I’ve read about the Israeli incident several times already.

Based on what was commented before by you and others it is clear that you are still thinking that it was a single incident, it was not.

I base what I say on what other countries are doing right now regarding schools openings.

A more recent view from Israel:

Israel’s new spate of infections illustrates the risks attached to stopping lockdown conditions.

According to Gabi Barbash, a former director general of the Health Ministry and professor of epidemiology at the Weizmann Institute, the main trigger for the new wave lies in the government’s decision to open schools, event halls and pubs, with infections surging among young people.

“Following the first wave, the public was eager to go out and believe that corona is over," Barbash said. “They pressed the government and the government was not strong enough to object to the pressure, and the decision was made to open the education system full volume.”

How is that article helping your argument regarding schools?? They opened pubs and event halls at the same time and we’re casting a suspicious eye at the schools?

Don’t ask me, ask Gabi Barbash, former director general of the Health Ministry and professor of epidemiology at the Weizmann Institute that included the opening of schools as a factor.

I shouldn’t have to ask him. It should have been included in his commentary if he wants to buck the current wisdom.

The current wisdom you use is then like common sense.

It’s important to realize that science is not about current wisdom. What schools in a place that had very little separation but had testing that told them to close several schools, shows us in an educated way that we in the USA are bound to do worse than Israel.

The lack of testing will lead to more cases that will force to close even more schools as other schools in an area will not know in a proper and prompt way what other students, staff or teachers are affected.

NYT article about a new, large SK study that suggests under 10s are half as likely as adults to spread it, and that children over 10 are about the same as adults.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-children-schools.html?smid=tw-nytimes&smtyp=cur

Half is honestly not enough to make me feel comfortable about 20 kids in a room in a location with high rates of community spread. But it certainly suggests the littles should go back before the bigs: much less risk, much more benefit.

The United States is so deep in it that testing is not key. At all. Real lockdowns are what matter. Isolating when you’ve been in contact with a positive person is an important test related thing though. Low tech is what worked everywhere. Testing is more a gate keeper.

But if you want anything running, like grocery stores, you should feel good with school. Schools are not more dangerous and pretty important.

And if a grandmother I know, that is a teacher, had wheels she would be a bicycle.

They should maybe go back before the bigs, but not much more before. If we send about a million K-6 NC children back to K-6 school (there were 1.01 million K-8 kids in 2011, so I’m roughly extrapolating), and if there are around 300-500 children in your average school, and if those kids are half as likely as adults to spread it, we need to have very low numbers before sending the littles back makes sense.

Yeah, not being in school is going to suck. I dread the idea of telling my super-social seven-year-old that she won’t be going back after all (assuming we go to plan C, which is looking likelier by the hour). PANDEMICS SUCK. And I’d rather tell her that than tell her that twelve teachers are very sick and one died.

Early in this thread, I worried that people would get their brains stuck on a position based on the incomplete data at the time and make it part of their identity, and refuse to change positions as the science changed. We 100% see that happening in our country, and I fear we see that in this thread.

Our district has talked about the hybrid model, which would require staff to be at school full-time but students at school half-time in smaller classes (probably like 10 kids). This obviously creates enormous childcare hurdles for staff families. One proposed solution is that we get classified as essential workers so we can get childcare slots at local facilities.

This is absurd, for several reasons. First, there’s already a childcare crisis in our community, with very few programs having empty seats. Adding hundreds of staff children into the system would overwhelm it under normal circumstances, and a hybrid model will not be normal circumstances. Second, even if there’s room for staff children, the payments are going to be overwhelming. Putting two children in a program half-time is almost certain to run in the neighborhood of $1,000 a month or more. That’s very close to the 33% of salary that would be lost by taking FMLA and being home full-time.

But most importantly, even if the district can find space for staff children, and even if the cost can be subsidized to the point where it’s not untenable, it adds a whole extra cohort that meets and plays together.

Abby, Braun, Carla, Devonte, Eddie, Felicia, Galecia, Harriet, Igby, and Justin are ten staff kids in ten different classes. On week A, they’re apart. On week B, they’re together. If Abby was in a class with an exposure, now the other nine are exposed, too. On Week C, they’re back to their original classes, and now all ten classes are exposed.

But Abby has Kayla in her class, who’s in a whole different childcare setting for week B, and Braun’s in the same situation with Lily, and so on.

The attempt to limit spread by isolating kids is completely undermined if kids are in a separate multi-child setting in off-weeks.

No they just allowed students the opportunity to make up any work and averaged their grade on what was turned in. They had some zoom meet-ups and the choir got together to sing some but that’s about it. I honestly think they could have done more but they didn’t have enough time to plan much.

Kansas just moved the start of school back 2 weeks until after labor day with the hope that things will get better.

Locally they are poling parents what they want to do. Some are looking at a mixed system where as many as possible can learn from home.