Here’s something I’m wondering. Why would Kansas need 1100 pages worth of reopening guidelines? Man, how many schools are even in Kansas?
TOPEKA, Kan. — Kansas’ governor says she will delay the reopening of the state’s K-12 schools for nearly a month until after Labor Day because of a resurgence in reported coronavirus cases that has given the state its worst weeklong spike since the pandemic began.
Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly announced her plans Wednesday, only hours after the State Board of Education approved roughly 1,100 pages of reopening guidelines for local boards of education.
As a teacher, I think stability is incredibly important. The reason spring went so badly is that we had no time to plan at all: we went from never considering closing school to school being closed in 2 days, and even then, we were told at first to plan on being home at most a few weeks. So we made bridge plans instead of “new reality” plans. Even this summer, the lack of direction makes planning impossible. Do I plan an all virtual program? A hybrid? An in-person but with strict social distancing rules? My science teacher friends are going crazy because they have no idea what to do about labs. What you do if kids are at home is really different than hybrid is different than 5 days a week. And these things have to be planned in advance. Do we spend money on a virtual lab program or on a personal set of lab supplies for each kid (sharing goggles seems right out)? Do we invest in learning platforms or plexiglass?
I’ve about decided I am going to plan a curriculim that is 100% virtual, and if that means some kids are following me on a chromebook while sitting in the class where I am teaching, that is what it is. I can’t right plans for if we are at school and a separate set for if we are home, along with variants for kids who are home while we are at school and for times when I am home (quarrentined) and kids are at school. We are going hyvrid, so half my kids will be home and half will be at school each day. Unless we start virtually, which we may. Originally, I thought I’d use my “at school” time in a more specific and directed way, but now I think I need to just make it all distance, and take in school as a bonus. But it won’t be anything like “normal” school.
Although adults are 20 times more likely to receive hospital care for Covid-19, if a child does go to the hospital for it, they are as likely to need ICU services as an adult. Still, the fatality rate is still much lower than adults.
First day of school here will be 8 Sep for 1-12 and 14 Sep for pre-K and K. They seem to have decided to at least start with one group of kids in the classroom on Mon-Tue and the other group on Thu-Fri.
This is the school where the students were suspended for taking the picture of the hallway crowded with maskless students. All of this screams “we’re making shit up as we go” to me. But I guess it is better than “we’re going to stay open no matter what!”
Good to see they also decided to lift the suspension for the students who posted pictures of the crowded hallways on social media. Nothing quite like shooting the messenger!
Viral. The word he should have said was viral. I guess that word doesn’t exist in his vocabulary. That may explain Georgia’s plan for reopening schools.
This is an article on the same report I posted in my last post, but I thought this article had a quote that was significant because of the source. According to the vice-chair of the AAP’s infectious diseases committee, there are roughly around 100 deaths of children from influenza each year. There have been 90 deaths of children from coronavirus in just the past few months.
In other news, 150 school employees tested positive for Covid-19 in Central Texas. The article has a breakdown by district.
Although Mayor de Blasio is saying that 75% of the city’s children will go back to classroom learning, some and perhaps many parents are keeping their options by not filling out the survey making a commitment to the option of schooling they’re choosing.
I suspect CNN misquoted Dr. O’Leary who surely knows that there are more than 100 child influenza deaths estimated each year. Or Dr. O’Leary had a brain fart. It happens to us all.
Maybe he’s going not by those estimated numbers but only those officially reported? Still then looking at an average of 157 over the past four years (in each year’s “just a few months” of flu season). Not sure I’d even call even that number roughly around a hundred.
It however certainly is not accurate to say that this virus is completely benign in children, just relatively so.
For the Texas cases. Texas is clearly in the Red Zone with (per 91-divoc) over 25 confirmed tested cases/100K/d 7d average, and a positivity rate of 22%! Which speaks to a dramatic undercount compared to the standard undercount. COVID ActNow quotes a slightly lower positivity rate but still way up there - but ICU capacity at dangerous risk of overload. Kids not in school yet but sho 'nuff screen employees who have been out in the community before entry, test any random group, and you will find them by the scores.
Schools about to open are the least of the problems going on there.
According to the CDC, from 2004-2005, the reported deaths of children from influenza have ranged from 37-187.
The numbers from your last post are numbers from a mathematical model that estimates the under reporting of the flu. Since there are no mathematical models to simulate the under reporting of coronavirus, the apples to apples comparison would be the reported deaths which is what it seems Dr. Sean O’Leary, vice-chair of the American Academy of Pediatrics Committee on Infectious Diseases, used in his comparison. The article doesn’t quote him as talking about estimates.
From the CDC report you quoted titled:
Estimated Influenza Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 influenza season
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and that was a fairly high count. The previous season had a record high count at 172.
I saw that. That’s why I included articles saying that the last several years have been record high numbers.
Since the CDC has reported cases going back to 2004-2005, the 100 reported number average may be based on those years averaged. Since the low number is 37, the average for the last four years which, in some cases, were record high numbers each year, might be brought down substantially if there were more years closer to 37… 100 would be in the ballpark.
The higher numbers that were given as estimates which are closer to 500-600 are not in the ballpark. I was saying that the reported numbers don’t match your estimate numbers.
