I find it more than a little telling that during a time while public discourse has begun to include a (long overdue, if you ask me) debate about whether remote learning is failing our youth, this thread has remained dormant, only to be resurrected by the posting of an article that would seem to convey a least a subtle implication that keeping schools closed is, by a certain metric anyway, the right thing to do.
[As an aside, as best I can tell this ‘story’ comes from a Turkish source and has not been reported elsewhere. I’ll just say that if you’ve spent the time in Turkey that I have, this might not come as a particular surprise. But then again, a competitive sense of nationalism (tribalism?) is far from a rare strain throughout this entire ordeal, so now is perhaps not the time to find exception.]
Here’s a tweet that caught my eye today, coming as it does from one of the analytical darlings, on this board and elsewhere:
He demonstrates an error in reasoning that has become, it is sad to say, more expected than not from many ‘analysts’. See the ‘zoomed out’ image:
And some choice quotes from his analysis thread:
Contrary to what many believe, remote instruction did not decrease county-level incidence during the fall surge, when compared to in-person instruction.
What happened here is similar to the CDC study on mask mandates. Short-term correlations do not necessarily lead to long-term causal relationships.
They should not be used to set/influence policy, especially one as important as education.
Unfortunately, I’ve seen too many people cite data and sources that support their personal beliefs on school openings, and ignore data and sources that counter their beliefs.
Whether this is done intentionally or not, it is a dangerous precedent.
To conclude, the data does not support the claim that in-person instruction at colleges and universities lead to increased COVID-19 incidence and deaths in the long run.
Existing debates about schools seem to be more driven by politics than science, unfortunately.
You can take that last line and apply it to a lot more than schools, I’m sad to say.