When the Taliban leadership next meet to assess their situation;
They see that the chances of the US/UK lead coalition leading a massive military offensive receding, and with this the prospects of the Moslems of the world joining them.
They see their sole ally in Pakistan has rolled over, and limited prospects of raising an insurrection to change this.
They see millions of Afghanis fleeing the country, a big problem because “the purest Islamic state” does need a congregation. Fundamentalism, like most religions is about bums on seats.
Even if you don’t concur with this assessment, presume that the Taliban decide not to turn OLB over to the US, but to reveal his exact whereabouts on the condition;
i) He surrenders to a “neutral” country e.g. France
ii) He is tried at The Hague before an international panel of jurists for crimes against humanity.
I would presume that the US would refuse this.
(BTW, I think it’s a good deal, because to my mind all the other options will create a martyr. I like the concept of bin Laden and Slobadhan Milosovic sharing a cell long, long term and fading into obscurity together).
So for plan B, having decided that ObL is too hot to handle, they simply reveal that he is actually in Paris and French police promptly arrest him.
The US would obviously like to get hold of him, but the complication is France, along with other European Union nations refuse to extradite suspects to the US where the death penalty may apply including terrorism suspects.
Would this be acceptable to the US? If not, what approach should/will the US take?
Quote: Belgian Justice Minister Marc Verwilghen (Belgium currently hold the EU chair) has urged Washington to devise “some arrangement” under which extradited suspects would not face the death penalty if convicted.
It’s not enough to get Bin Laden. Bin Laden alone would be a paltry gesture to the U.S. Maybe if the Taliban offered to turn over OBL, everyone in Al Qaida, the upper management of the Taliban, all their weapons, and then allowed observers from the neutral country unfettered access to inspect anything in Afghanistan that might have a terrorist hiding in, under, or behind it.
That’s an offer that would have to be seriously considered. But it would probably be rejected anyway.
I must admit, I’m pleased that the Taliban is now saying that there is sufficient evidence to try OBL in a Sharia court, even without the U.S. offering their own evidence. The smell of their fear is sweet to to me.
I find it hard to believe that we would consider anything but an International court. The implications of “The Great Satan killed our man” is a lot different than “The whole damn world is against us”. One fuels the fire, the other demoralizes.
As has been said before, this is a PR war. If we can make the extremeist look like freaks with no place in this world, we stand a chance of winning. We can do this only if we work in concert with the world. If we decide to stride out on our own and administer vigilante justice, we will only confirm the extremeist’s predictions, and such actions will deliver more believers to the terrorist’s side.
My understanding is that one of ObL’s problems with the US is that it “forces” other countries to go along with it. To someone with that mindset, I don’t think that a conviction in an international court would be seen as “the whole world is against us” as much as “yet again the US tells other countries what to do”. An international trial is something that deserves consideration, but I don’t think that we have any obligation to have one. This was an act against us, and we have a right to respond.
The Taliban has run out of time, air strikes are taking place right now, and there are reports that the Northern Alliance has begun a local offensive.
Will they decide that OBL is too hot to handle and kick him out ?
Doubt it, by many accounts and certainly UK premier Tony Blair, the Taliban and OBL work together and need each other.There has been a great deal of linking the Taliban with OBL through the media, even if OBL is killed or captured they will probably be attacked.
One area of priority will be the capture of individuals and documents that can shed light on the relationship between OBL and the Taliban.
Interviews with Northen alliance leaders suggest that OBL’s lot will hole up in the myriad caves created specifically for such events, but a cave can be a grave as well as a shelter.
I get the impression that this is going to be a long starve 'em out approach, why risk sending men into a dangerous environment when sitting around preventing enemy movement will yield results in the longer run.
Meanwhile,
You need to keep your eyes open for unusual activity around any government installations, anything that can be held to represent the essence of a democratic society, I would think that there is a possibility that some of OBL operatives or sympathisers may wish to stage some sort of violent event.
As far as “The Great Satan did it to us” vs. “The whole world is against us”, I think it’s sufficient for the rest of the predominantly muslim countries in the world to stand by while the U.S. pursues a targetted, restrained military action in Afghanistan, coupled with humanitarian aid. This seems to be what’s happening already.
If the Taliban doesn’t get the message that they’re completely alone already, then they’re too self-deluded for us to care.