Oscar Poll: What films will be nominated for Best Picture?

This year, the ballot slate expands to 10 nominees, something that hasn’t happened within the Academy in over 60 years. This really widens the field to potentially include broad-based popular hits and marginal independents with small but passionate followings.

So, this is NOT who you thing should be nominated. This is who you think WILL be. Vote for up to 10 options.

I chose these, but I expect to be wrong on a couple.

Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up In The Air

I think The Blind Side will probably replace something, probably An Education. I think there will be surprises, there always is.

Mortal locks are Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds and Up In The Air. The rest are just filler. The Oscar will go to one of those, probably The Hurt Locker. Or Avatar.

In the past, which animated or scifi films have been nominated for best picture? I can see Avatar and Up winning some awards, but not best picture.

LOTR: The Return of the King was the first fantasy/sci-fi film to ever win Best Picture, but previous nominees include A Midsummer Night’s Dream, Lost Horizon, The Wizard of Oz, Doctor Dolittle, A Clockwork Orange, The Exorcist, Star Wars, E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial, Field of Dreams, Ghost, Beauty and the Beast* (the only animated film to date), Babe, The Sixth Sense, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (as well as the first two LOTR films).

*yes, yes, it was all just a dream

I think the expansion of the field is probably an opportunity to include more comedies and genre pictures. It would not surprise me to see Avatar, Up, and The Hangover all nominated, along with a slate of more traditional “serious” Oscar fare.

Well, I know how much the Academy HATES to nominate sci-fi, animated and comedy films. So that cuts down the list quite a bit. And they LOVE tear-jerking dramas and period pieces, so The Blind Side, Precious, The Messenger, Invictus and Basterds are in.

However, the last couple of years it seems like the film that wins best picture is the none-of-the-above film that has a strange buzz going around that doesn’t start until after the movie has hit theaters. Last year it was Slumdog, and before that it was No Country for Old Men, Crash and The Departed. This year’s buzz seems to be on Up In The Air, which is ALMOST a comedy, and is a good movie but was too cookie-cutter to really stand out to me. It’s funny how the Entertainment Weekly Winter Film Preview issue gave Up In the Air 1/4 of a page and barely had anything to say about it other than the combination of Reitman and Clooney should be good, and yet gave 2 pages to The Lovely Bones and predicted it for best picture. How the tables have turned…

I think subnormality prob’ly said it best.

Beauty and the Beast is the only animated film ever nominated for Best Picture, but they added Best Animated Feature a few years ago, preempting further invitations to the big show.

With 8 day left before the nods are revealed (on 2/2): Bump

Nominations come out tomorrow. Final bump.

As I have said before, this is going to make for a strange year.
I think a big surprise is in store when they announce the winner.

In the past, because there were only 5, a front runner started to be suggested as soon as the nominations were listed.
This time, it won’t be so easy.
Say, for instance, that 12% are die hard fans of a certain film that nobody believes will win, but they will not change their vote no matter what. Then say the other “more deserving” films are split fairly evenly by the others - that 12% of die hards will win with their choice.

Basically, it comes down to numbers and with so many nominees, it will not take a majority, by any means, to win this year. True, you never needed a majority in the past, but this year, the numbers will even be smaller to get a film to win.

(bolding mine)

Not exactly true. Because they definitely don’t want to have a winner with just 11.1% of the vote, they will be doing the preferential system for the final Oscar ballot for Best Picture (and that category only), which will require each member to rank their preferences.* It will still be a one-ballot/one-vote system, but films with the least support will have their weight redistributed to the remaining films until one film receives 50%. This means that it will be impossible for a film to win without initial strong support, but it is conceivable that Picture A starts of with 35% and Picture B with 30% of the votes, but in the final tally, Picture B comes out ahead as the winner because it received more #2 and #3 rankings on ballots that had less popular films at the #1 spot.

*This is the system they currently use already to determine all the nominees.

I just don’t think the Academy will bother putting Up in Best Picture. They didn’t go for Wall-E last year, so I just can’t imagine Up being at the top of the list this year.

But last year there were only 5 slots available, and this year there’s 10. If there’d been 10 slots last year, Wall-E would have been in there, as would The Dark Knight. Those two missing is probably the main reason there are 10 slots this year.

Just to clarify: Even though Documentaries and Animated features have their own nominating categories, documentary and animated features are still eligible to be nominated for Best Picture too.

Hurt Locker for the Win.

Though I’d love to see Inglorious Basterds take the whole thing, i doubt it. =(

Here are the top picks from our poll:

*Avatar
The Bline Side
District 9
The Hurt Locker
Inglorious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
Up
Up in the Air
*
That makes 9, with the 10th a tie between An Education and A Serious Man. Just a few minutes away now…

Best Picture Results

AVATAR

THE BLIND SIDE

DISTRICT 9

AN EDUCATION

THE HURT LOCKER

INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS

PRECIOUS

A SERIOUS MAN

UP

UP IN THE AIR

Wow.

We rock.

Also -

2 science fiction flicks and a cartoon nominated! YEAH!