This may degrade into a GD or Pit thread, but I do have a real GQ first…
Some folks say that if we got rid of SUV’s and other gasoline guzzlers we could wean ourselves off oil and tell the whole middle east to “Get Bent”.
But is that really true.
Let’s say we didn’t have the guzzlers. Sure we woudn’t need the gasoline, but we don’t buy gasoline from the middle east. We buy crude oil. That’s why we never hear of huge “gasoline slicks” washing up on Spain or Prince William Sound.
But we get more from a barrel of crude than just gasoline: heating oil, kerosene, other petroleum distallates. And one could argue that unless we have a similar decrease in the demand for those other products we would still buy as much oil from the middle east, we would just have a bunch of gasoline leftover that we wouldn’t know what to do with. And conversly, if the primary reason we buy the crude oil is for the gasoline where’s all the “other stuff” going.
The entire issue is grossly over-simplified, yes. For one, if we cut our oil consumption 20% overnight, that 20% wouldn’t all come from Saudi Arabia. Additionally, a lot of our oil use goes towards industrial applications and shipping. Additionally, as you mention, we import oil and process it - if we suddenly processed 20% less oil, that domestic industry would be hurt. Also, the oil would go SOMEWHERE - the world demand is just too high, though the price would likely drop.
But there is certainly no harm in using less fuel, especially considering that getting into a oil-independent mindset would have a number of effects on the automotive industry and alternative fuels in general.
Even if we got rid of gas guzzling vehicles and switched to say gas-hybrid SUV’s or other large vehicles that get 30 or more miles to a gallon (the USA population will want large vehicles for the forseable future) that doesn’t mean we will burn less gasoline- people might start driving more. To truly get away from foreign oil dependance will require non-petroleum based fuels for cars.
To answer the QUESTION, that is not how oil refining works, and it’s not how gasoline is made. It’s been decades since simple distillation has been able to meet our need for gasoline; the heavier fractions are cracked (i.e., chemically modified) to produce gasoline, as well as many other useful products, and the output from cracking would just be shifted so as to most efficiently meet our needs. No leftovers.
It is very possible that the smaller amount of oil we do by would be a greater percentage from the middle east.
When gas demand drops 20% here, it would have a (very good IMHO) ripple effect in all fuel prices. world oil prices would drop to compenstae and other buyers would buy more if they have a choice i.e. power plants (they can run their oil plants at full capacity and run their nuke plant at min capacity).
Smaller producers with high environmental standards and higher wage workers (read US oil producers) would be forced to close as they couldn’t afford to pump.
So the only one who could pump would be ones with lower labor cost, huge ecomomies of scale and no envirnmental concerns (really no environmant to protect anyway - it’s a desert)
So, what you are saying is that even though the oil that goes to gasoline comes mostly from non-Middle East sources, if we curtail gasoline use the petroleum not purchased would be from non-Middle East sources? Am I reading that correctly?
I think k2dave was saying that the U.S. domestic oil industry might well be the first to suffer should there be some dramatic curtailment of demand in this country. We currently produce ~45% of what we consume.
Off the top of my head, I don’t know how much transportation costs affect what we get from where, but the domestic oil business is somewhat fragile right now, and looking to increasing demand for natural gas to provide in the future.
