She would get a Pat Buchanan’s or a Newt Gingrich’s or a Tom Delay’s 20% share of the GOP primary vote. As was the case with Buchanan in '96, with an early crowded field, that might be enough to pick up an early primary, but her support wouldn’t grow larger than that.
After McCain loses, if everything stays the same, you will see high profile Republicans turning their backs on Palin in droves…
She may be looking towards a run in 2012, but she will be decimated by the other candidates in her party. She is barely able to keep things together for a 6 week run at VP; how do you think she’ll fair at multiple debates across many, many months?
PS - You should change your username to Paul in MD! 
(Do they even have Strawberry wine in Saudi?)
Remember when Dan Quayle announced he was thinking about running for President in 2000? That’s the kind of response that a future Palin presidential run will get - and that’s assuming McCain pulls a rabbit out of the hat and gets elected.
I wouldn’t be surprised if she ran. She thinks she is cool enough now. She will only think that much more of herself by then. Especially now that she has a national cult. But I’m betting she’ll either remain Gov. of AK, or become a Fox News correspondent by 2012.
She’d get about as far in the Republican primaries as a strawberry wine would in a Wine Spectator judging.
I think her fan base is too small. Regular, normal people aren’t really in love with her. Just the nutbars, is the way it looks from here.
If she gave up being a fundy, maybe. But then, her cult would be cheezed off and she’d be back at square one.
I have this theory that after 8 years of a sensible man such as President Obama the US will be so much of a better place that pink fluffy unicorn bunnies will be teaching Evolution in Sunday Schools.
Merged a newer “Palin 2012?” thread into this one.
God, I hope so!
I’m sure she’ll try in '12. She doesn’t seem to have a realistic view of her abilities, and, surrounded by supporters, she’ll think everyone loves her.
I wonder how much of the current bigotry meltdown is due to her. If McCain gets trounced, and the exit polls show lots of people abandoned him because of the hate, they’ll blame her. I think McCain and the Rovians really deserve the blame, but the wagons of the insiders will pull into a circle and blame it on the outsider.
I don’t remember THAT-what happened?
I’m thinking she will fade away into obscurity, just like another VP candidate to a Republican from Arizona who got blown out in an election.
I respectfully disagree. Never underestimate the resolve of true believers. Palin has tapped into something deep and dangerous in the GOP base. They believe in her. She’s given voice to their fears and hatred. She’s their advocate and is (ostensibly) one of them. They won’t let her sink into obscurity, which works right into her ambitions.
Even if Obama wins, Palin will continue to stoke the flames of dissent and discord, just as she will continue to build a following. The bandaid has been ripped off the sore, and the ugly puss of unrepentent bigotry now on display is oozing out. For those who will believe an Obama presidency is tantamount to the destruction of America as they know it, Palin will be their beacon.
I predict we’ll be seeing and hearing quite a bit from Palin after the election, goodness help us.
Can’t you guess?
I agree. They have nobody else. It is easy to dismiss her until you see her followers . They booed McCain because he was not the star and he was off message. She has developed a very strong group of followers. Their fervor is scary. Many see the slate like she does Palin/McCain.
Not even the fervent Kool-Aid fanbase that fiercely defended VP Quayle showed up for that.
DQ was a decent capable Jr Senator when picked as VP. Even Ted Kennedy had praise for him. Then DQ was thrown into way-too-deep water & never regained his footing during Dad Bush’s term. IF he had come out to write some substantive policy papers, or a conservative manifesto, and perhaps had run for Governor of Indiana or even retried for Senate, he may have had a chance to rebuild his reputation. Instead, he wrote a perceived-as-whiney memoir & faded out of public view until his attempt to get a Presidential nomination.
Apparently, he actually did write a couple of policy books & considered running for Gov of Indiana in the 1990s, I just saw on wikipedia. But politically, he just had no relevance any more.
And wasn’t that something when the National Enquirer caught him with that lady at the …
oh wait … I’m confused. 
Quayle like Palin was an electoral gimmick. They were picked to cover a demographic vulnerability in the real candidate’s campaign. After the election, Quayle was ignored as Palin will be. When Quayle tried to step out on his own later on, he was dismissed as someone who had no real base and no credibility as a stand-alone candidate. I predict the same will happen to Palin if she tries a Presidential run in the future.
Palin will become the Secretary of Defense of the Queendom of Wasilla because she will be able to keep her eyes on Russia from the Castle.
exactly, his trying to announce a run was so memorable, that 99.9 percent of people didn’t know he tried! a lead ballon floated better.
Here is a particularly insightful* diary that looks at losing VP candidates for the past 60 years and how often they ended up winning the nomination during the next election. Conclusion: Palin’s chances of being the Republican nominee in 2012 are between slim and none.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/12/93031/107/316/628208
