Palin's political future

[Mighty_Girl]

@Frostillicus

• I know this to be true because I wrote it.

Your post is your cite?

[gonzomax]

@FriarTed

Not even the fervent Kool-Aid fanbase that fiercely defended VP Quayle showed up for that.

DQ was a decent capable Jr Senator when picked as VP. Even Ted Kennedy had praise for him. Then DQ was thrown into way-too-deep water & never regained his footing during Dad Bush’s term. IF he had come out to write some substantive policy papers, or a conservative manifesto, and perhaps had run for Governor of Indiana or even retried for Senate, he may have had a chance to rebuild his reputation. Instead, he wrote a perceived-as-whiney memoir & faded out of public view until his attempt to get a Presidential nomination.

Apparently, he actually did write a couple of policy books & considered running for Gov of Indiana in the 1990s, I just saw on wikipedia. But politically, he just had no relevance any more.

I do not remember him getting the crazies all fired up like this. Palin has a lot more traction. Quayle did make a lot of embarrassing errors and became the but of jokes. Even if that happens to her .she will likely keep the nuts behind her. She is speaking to them in their language. (Rushian)

[wonky]

@gonzomax

I do not remember him getting the crazies all fired up like this. Palin has a lot more traction. Quayle did make a lot of embarrassing errors and became the but of jokes. Even if that happens to her .she will likely keep the nuts behind her. She is speaking to them in their language. (Rushian)

But you’d be amused to read now what was said about him in that original campaign, about how clever and what a fast learner he was, and how quickly the campaign was bringing him up to speed on the issues. Almost word-for-word the same things the McCain campaign tried to say about Palin–with pretty much the same gaffe-ridden result. I’m surprised at this point we haven’t seen video of Palin trying to put an “e” on the end of “igloo.”

[DSeid]

I seem to recall rading somewhere that her popularity within Alaska is slipping quite a bit under this focus and as a result of her both stonewalling the Troopergate investigation and allowing well respected Alaskans to be dissed by GOP interlopers in the process. Anyone with better gooogle-fu than I have or who knows about that?

[GIGObuster]

@Little_Nemo

Quayle like Palin was an electoral gimmick. They were picked to cover a demographic vulnerability in the real candidate’s campaign. After the election, Quayle was ignored as Palin will be.

I’m not too optimistic in this case, the only way I see McCain winning is to incite the religious right even more (using the abortion issue in the open and the Antichrist issue under the water for example). If he manages to win with that kind of help, it will be impossible to ignore Palin and the religious right that will demand more than a bone throw at them this time. And I can not ignore the scary possibility of McCain curling up before his term is up.

[TWDuke]

@DSeid

I seem to recall rading somewhere that her popularity within Alaska is slipping quite a bit under this focus and as a result of her both stonewalling the Troopergate investigation and allowing well respected Alaskans to be dissed by GOP interlopers in the process. Anyone with better gooogle-fu than I have or who knows about that?

“Palin still popular, just not as much”

@Christian Science Monitor 10/12

The troopergate episode has contributed to some erosion in Palin’s once-stratospheric popularity in Alaska, according to local pollsters. Her in-state approval rating has dropped from a high of about 85 percent to 65 percent, says Anchorage pollster and political consultant Ivan Moore. “I can anticipate that her rating will drop off into the 50s, maybe even the low 50s,” Mr. Moore says. Still, Palin’s approval ratings remain high overall, and she has a stong base of backers – currently at 45 percent – who give her very high marks, he says.

“Palin’s popularity tumbles among Alaskans”

@Miami Herald 9/30

Above 80 percent approval for parts of her term - she was at 82 percent in a key local poll twice this year - Palin’s popularity has swooned as new information about the local abuse-of-power investigation known as Troopergate has trickled out, and as national and local media pick over her track record as a governor and small-town mayor.

Palin still has overwhelming support among Alaska Republicans. But many Democrats and independents, who gave her positive marks just a month ago, have changed their views.

[DSeid]

Found it.Still not bad but significantly decreased.

Above 80 percent approval for parts of her term - she was at 82 percent in a key local poll twice this year - Palin’s popularity has swooned as new information about the local abuse-of-power investigation known as Troopergate has trickled out, and as national and local media pick over her track record as a governor and small-town mayor.
Palin still has overwhelming support among Alaska Republicans. But many Democrats and independents, who gave her positive marks just a month ago, have changed their views…

… two issues that clearly rankled Alaskans had nothing to do with party loyalty: openness and independence.
Ivan Moore, a local pollster who works with both Democrats and Republicans, recently found that Palin’s support had slipped to 68 percent. The poll was conducted from Sept. 20 to 22 among 500 likely Alaska voters and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.
Inside those numbers was a dramatic drop in support from Democrats and independents, although support from Republicans remained strong at 93 percent. Among Democrats, her approval rating dropped from 60 percent to 36 percent, a 24-point drop. Among independents, it fell from 82 percent to 64 percent, an 18-point drop.
Moore said those numbers were likely driven by the harsher tone Palin has adopted on the national campaign trail, as well as the fallout from Troopergate.
Palin’s lost many supporters because she’s worked to thwart a bipartisan inquiry into Troopergate after saying she’d cooperate.
In addition, fiercely independent Alaskans resent moves by the McCain campaign to control what they see as purely state matters.

This before the Branchflower report was released.

On preview - thanks to TWDuke for finding it as well!

[EddyTeddyFreddy]

@Frostillicus

Here is a particularly insightful* diary that looks at losing VP candidates for the past 60 years and how often they ended up winning the nomination during the next election. Conclusion: Palin’s chances of being the Republican nominee in 2012 are between slim and none.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/10/12/93031/107/316/628208

• I know this to be true because I wrote it.

Well done, Uppercut – but where’s your tip jar?

[RobuSensei]

@gurujulp

I think that when Ted Stevens gets the axe she will appoint herself or run for his senate spot…

How would that work? The governor would be responsible for the appointment, right? Could she appoint herself?

Speaking of Walter Mondale…

In 1976, when Mondale became Carter’s vice president, Minnesota Governor Wendell Anderson appointed himself to replace him in the senate. (This had the additional side-effect of giving Rudy “Gov. Goofy” Perpich his first time in the MN top slot.)

This appointment, and the shenanigans involved, contributed to the entire Democratic Party slate from MN losing in 1978.

[Frostillicus]

@Mighty_Girl

Your post is your cite?

Either that, or my cite is my post. I have a headache now.

[psychobunny]

If all else fails, there’s always this option.

[CairoCarol]

I haven’t read this thread as carefully as I would like (the downside of gainful employment is the lack of time to savor all these political threads), so apologies if I’m repeating points already made earlier (I didn’t see them in my quick read).

I think Palin has a limited future career as a national politician, even if she has the same ability that Bill Clinton has to electrify people.

Sure, Bill Clinton’s success was in large part due to his natural ability to make everyone in a room feel as if he is listening and responding to them,* and Palin may have that gift too. However, what Palin doesn’t have that helped Bill is:

1. Hilary. I can’t believe that Todd Palin is the intellectual asset that she is.

2. The high degree of intelligence that allows you to build a political machine. I guess, from what I’ve read, that she is good at surrounding herself by loyal cronies as evidenced by her tenures as mayor and governor. But you’ve got to do a lot more than that to lead a national campaign. You’ve got to strategize, make hard choices, bring together diverse coalitions. That takes knowledge, insight, and restraint, none of which appear to be her strong points.

3. As a substitute for or in addition to #2, the support of a party that will provide and run the machinery for you (that’s probably how W got elected when he so obviously lacks characteristic #2). It’s true that the Republican party could theoretically get behind Palin and run everything for her - one assumes that’s pretty much what the McCalin people are doing now. BUT if she becomes the darling of the Republican mainstream, she loses her current “team-of-mavericks” schtick and will have to find a new one. I don’t know if the “but-average-people-not-so-well-informed-should-have-representation-too” schtick would work as a substitute - that didn’t help Harold Carswell.

• I’ve seen him up close and personal in NH on the campaign trail. I’m very hard to impress, but I have to admit, I was awed by his ability to connect with an audience.

[Gyrate]

I predict that Palin will be tempted by the big money and bright lights and get her own show on FoxNews, probably with somebody else (Lordy, can you imagine a Coulter/Palin commentary show?). It will be popular with her base and generally derided by the sort of people who deride pretty much everything else on FoxNews (i.e. me). There will be talk of a run in '12 but nothing will come of it and she’ll stay a pundit, churn out a few books and live the media whore lifestyle to the full.