There’s a reasonable chance that tomorrow Australia will have a new Prime Minister, and it’s first female leader since Federation at the start of last century.
The numbers are stacking up. The only question is whether Julia actually wants the job. If she does then Kevin 24/7 will be gone by 11. Personally when I look on Julia I see the smile of a well fed shark.
It is of course a well worn, standard Labour political play that when the polls and sentiment are running so hard against them that all hope is lost they give the leadership to a woman. Carmen Lawrance in WA, Joan Kirner in Vic, Kristina Keneally in NSW and now, maybe Julia Gillard nationally.
Would be a mighty fall. Australians don’t usually kick out one term governments.
Howard scared Labor witless. But he held on too long. We chucked him out, probably one term too late for everybody’s good. None of Labor’s factional boys could lay a glove on him. So they turned to Kevin Rudd with negligible power base because, well he looked and sounded like Howard, with modern ideas.
Rudd swept to power in an election that even cost Howard his own seat. He rode an immense wave of popular support for doing some of the PC things that Howard couldn’t bring himself to do. Like an apology for the “Stolen Generation”.
But they spent like drunken sailor to get us through the GFC, and got through with a substantial help that Howard’s mob had kept the books balanced. And then the emblematic Carbon Emission trading scheme, described by Rudd as the “greatest moral challenge of our generation”” was postponed until after the next election and the wheels fell off. Spectacularly. From the highest for longest approval rating to an electoral mauling poll in a couple of months. The workaholic micromanagemer of media detail .
Tomorrow is the last possible of the winter parliamentary sitting and hence probably the last day they can make the change before the election needs to be called.
The voters of course have no say in the matter, baring those who have been putting their fleas into the factional warlord’s ears. And if he’s gone tomorrow nobody will turn a hair.