Pascal's Wager

I think that abele derer is maintaining that if an event turns out to be false it is disqualified from being a “national, heavily-commemorated event”.

Isn’t that circular reasoning? An event is true because of the evidence of it being considered a national, heavily-commemorated event - and it is a national, heavily commemorated event because, in part, it is true?

If that is **able derer’s **argument, it’s entirely illogical.

Whoa! Say it ain’t so!

Where have you been for the last 8 pages? And for the pages and pages in the other thread?

We have to verify how many people were believed to have seen a ressurected Jesus (and how many people saw that he had died).

I am not making up details, just pulling things out of a hat. The facts are facts. The Jews believe that millions of their ancestors experienced miracles. They believe that it was heavily commemorated from the time of the miracles and forward.

You have to explain why that story, with all it’s details, is SURELY fallible evidence.

  1. How do you know that people believe that millions panicked? 2) Even if people believe that millions panicked, it is true that some people panicked. If so, you are merely proving that IF AN EVENT OCCURS the numbers can be subsequently exaggerated. If so, how is that relevant to your argument that the split sea never happened; 3) How do you know that people commemorated this national hysteria, forever. For example, do people walk around with scrolls straped to their forheads which states, “We experienced national hysteria. Shame on us.”

You got nothing.

My argument isn’t circular AT ALL. If someone can show a FALSE national, heavily commemorated event, then I will lay down my weapons. Until then, I have no reason to assume that people will come to believe false, nationally commemorated events.

[quote=“smileybastard, post:399, topic:562323”]

Why does it matter how many the story says were there? The facts show that the story didn’t occurred the way it is told and believed. The pilgrims didn’t eat a meal with the aboriginals.

[QUOTE]

First, they did eat a meal. Second, the number of people is essential. More importatntly, the fact that people beleived to have descended from those millions is essential.

ALSO, how do you know that the feast was believed to have been heavily commemorated from the time it was believed that the feast happened?
The Pilgrim story could have EASILY been made up, since it happened in a small part of one state to a small number of people. How would people have been able to contradict this story?

HOWEVER, if someone claims that millions of OUR ancestors were commanded to keep sabbath, each and everyone of US good to the last drop, then how is it possible that EVERYONE forgot about this story?

I don’t think we need to know how many were reputed to have witnesses it. If I were tell a story I could wright any number I liked.

We only know how many commemorate it now. The rest is all history and a story.

As would be the evidence of millions of people living in a desert for 40 years. While one could argue that miracles kept them alive, did miracles also hide the evidence?

It has been done. The thanksgiving story.

How many people? Were there any everlasting commemorations of the non-event? Are you sure that the meal didn’t happen?

They ate Many meals. Most would have been with enslaved aboriginals. Hardly the thanksgiving people know and love.

Why is it essential?

Wow, too many believes in there.

No one knows what was commemorated in the past for sure in either case. It os all part of the story that may or may not be true.

Again the number of people one makes up a story about is insignificant. In both cases the story can arisen later and then how could it be contradicted?

Too many ifs. In the case of the Jews the sabbath was kept and the story was given to a small group initially. That group grew and the story changed over time. Same as all myths.

And yet there is no verification for this:

You keep saying millions without verifying that number. And in any case you’re not dealing with that whole probability issue, which (unlike this exodus thing) is an argument that hasn’t already been beaten to death.

Again the number of people is not important. It is commemorated now. The story says it has been since that time. Same as the story you talk about.

The historical evidence seems to be against it. Can’t be positive.

Do other nations have “national, heavily-commemorated events”?
If so, could you name some of them?

Is there a reason conversation comes to a stop every time I ask a version of this question?

This is trivially easy. The New Testament numbers at least 513 people who saw Jesus after had risen from the dead.

  1. SOME Jews believe that, far from all.
  2. Belief is not evidence.
  3. There is no evidence that these beliefs existed at all before the 7th or 8th Century BCE.
  4. It means nothing for a story to contain details. All fiction contains details.
  5. The details of the Sinai story are contradicted by historical, archaeological and scientific evidence.
  6. The Sinai story does not represent “fallible evidence.” It represents no evidence at all.

I’m not an expert, but I suspect that the founding of Rome would count. You’d certainly expect that would have been celebrated by the first inhabitants, who heard it straight from the wolf-suckee’s mouth about the events.
Slightly more believable than the Exodus story, I’d say.

Why is it important if other nations have nationally commemorated events. However, I do know of some. The Holocaust is one. The Civil War is another.

In Judaism, another national, commemorated event comes to mind: the existence of the Temple in Jerusalem, which was commemorated with the holidays of Tisha B’av and Hanukah.

Of course I more certain, if that’s possible, that the sinai events happened than I am that the Temple existed, since the sinai events are more heavily commemorated than the Temple is. Still, if you could show that the Temple in Jerusalem never existed, that would kill, or seriously injure, the Kuzari argument.

A national event is one experienced by the nation. Is two people a nation?

Obviously it is all but impossible to prove something didn’t happen, but again proving that millions of people lived in Sinai for 40 years than the temple didn’t exist and it is closer to home. It is hard to hide traces of millions or people, if not impossible. Why are there no traces?