Pathways to a Trump presidency

Gore was a special case. He could put the most rabid politico to sleep.

We’re talking about Donald Trump right? The guy with the combover and the overactive ego? Remember, it’s Republicans who support him, the party who brought us Sarah Palin and Michelle Bachmann, it’s not like normal Americans vote for him.

He entered the presidential race with no background in politics, beat everyone (including politicians who were considered shoe ins) and he did it while disavowing both the republican establishment as well as the republican fundraising channels. He took on the entire GOP power establishment and won.

He is a very talented politician. The fact that people don’t like him doesn’t change that fact.

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Garden variety recession in the US, caused by a collapse of imports after China/Europe/XXXXXX implode. Now it is late March and there’s no evidence that this has happened yet. But it remains a possibility.
Though frankly I can imagine a number of other scenarios. Once you realize that Trump has upended previous political patterns, it becomes evident that relying on your intuition is problematic, since it is based upon possibly obsolete historical relationships. So you have to rebuild your arguments from the ground up, questioning implicit assumptions along the way.

And throwing in an additional error term. I could see Trump winning by a thin margin in the popular vote, or (more likely, but not certain) being blown out of the water in a truly epic fail.

Of course there will be whites who will never vote that way. Just as there are blacks who won’t associate themselves with the Democratic Party. You’ll just be one of those white voters that liberal organizations eagerly interview in all the same places, talking about how white voters need to abandon the Republican Party and join the Democrats, who are their real friends.

A sniper shoots Hillary at the debate and Trump delivers a speech so rousing he gets swept into office with powers that will make martial law seem like anarchy.

Trump is the anti-politician, and completely unsuited to governing anything but his own interests. A few months on a soapbox doesn’t change that. He’s a salesman and no more.

You have to grade him on a curve though because he’s not relying on his staff to feed him his lines and help him cram on various subjects. All politicians are basically salesmen. Used car salesmen.

I never said Trump was suited to run a government. He is an empty suit with paper thin skin and a giant ego as well as a penchant for appealing to the lowest common denominator. He would be incompetent as president.

However politicians are people who get elected and Trump is very talented at that. Being elected and governing are not the same thing, a politician who excels at one may suck at the other.

What kind of salesmen were they before the invention of the car?

Snake oil.

So far as I know, he hasn’t been elected for anything.

Of course, the original Manchurian Candidate concept would involve Hillary getting shot, surviving, and then getting swept into office with powers, etc.

But Trump is no man to be bound by precedent, no more so than by morals or ethics or decorum or decency or historical knowledge or scientific knowledge or esthetic judgment or common sense. Id on two legs, that one.

“Now, this here horse is of a prime Arabian line and is really only two years old . . . he’s only missing those teeth because his last owner was too kind and fed him too many sugar-lumps, but the little old lady only actually rode him on Sundays to church . . .”

I’m hoping the high voter turn out of republican primary voters is due to many people being repelled by Trump and turning up and voting against him, instead of for him. So, hopefully high turnout doesn’t mean more votes for Trump in the election.

Also, read that many democrats polled said they didn’t have a preference between Hillary or Bernie which to me translates to, meh I’ll just wait and vote later in the election.

As a middle-aged, middle-class white guy, I often fail to see any clear way the choice between the presidential candidates will meaningfully affect my day-to-day life. I’ve been ambivalent in presidential elections before, but my desire to have more liberal justices on the courts has been a main factor in my consistently voting Dem.

I’m hoping that the Dems succeed in capitalizing on the Repubs’ position re: the current vacancy to maximize turnout. There are so many significant issues before the court, and have been so many developments lately, that it is easy to paint the contrast of what might occur if the court moved further right. The vast majority of folk favor gay rights, privacy rights, etc. The idea that the Repubs won’t even give a moderate like Garland a hearing, juxtaposed with the prospect of Trump being able to nominate multiple justices, ought to mobilize several folk.

Here is the formula that could get Trump elected:
Fear of Trump being president < Distaste for Hilary being president = Trump presidency

It’s really that simple. I don’t like Hilary, but I will go out and vote because I fear that a Trump presidency would be terrible. If enough disenchanted Democrats stay home, Trump can win.

Exactly. The number of American’s who’ve been thoroughly indoctrinated with a pathological hatred of Hillary is simply amazing. It only takes 60-ish million voters to become prez. Out of a country with about 250 million potential voters.

Most lefties are disgusted by Trump, not angered by him.
Most righties are angered by Hillary, not disgusted by her.

That emotional difference will probably translate into a significant turnout differential.

Which makes him an even worse politician. A politician is supposed to lean heavily on a staff of well-trained and knowledgeable specialists. It’s impossible to do the job without them. If someone forgoes such a staff, then the conclusion we should draw isn’t that it’s impressive how well he’s doing without them. The conclusion we should draw is that he’s an idiot to even try it.

We’ve played with the 538 app before and that increasing white turnout a ton and winning more of than did Romney is not so simple.

College educated White turnout already is very high (77%) and went for Romney 56%.

He needs to not lose much of that share; getting more of it is not gonna happen. Will some White college educated that went Romney over Obama sit it out or even switch sides in a Trump v Clinton? Probably.

Non-college educated White is his doubling down. Lots of room to improve from their '12 turnout of 57% and maybe grow on the already high 62% share Romney got. Doing that significantly without causing other impacts that at least offset those gains? Trickier.

He has to get Blacks to vote more like they voted back in '96, staying home in much greater numbers and giving him more like 10 to 15% of those who do vote. IOW he has to get Clinton doing significantly poorer with the overall Black demographic than did either Kerry or Gore v. Bush.

And he has to hope that he does not motivate Hispanics to actually vote too much more.

Do all that, say increase non-college educated White to 62/67% turnout/share (from 57/62) with no offsetting impacts … he can win.

It’s a hard sell. Even for a very good salesman.

IMHO that is actually an important and undervalued part of the job. Part of being President is being salesman-in-chief in addition to being the skillful manager - convincing the American people on a course of action. Bill Clinton was amazing at that part of the job. He made people believe they had been thinking that way all along and that he was just articulating it for them. The best Presidents have sold the American people on a vision of themselves as noble and heroic.

H.R. Clinton is nowhere near as good at the sales side of the job as W.J. Clinton was. That is at first blush advantage Trump as he is a horrible manager and executive but a great salesman. And his particular sales approach, basically selling himself as amazing with unbridled bravado, appealing to fear, and depending on ignorance and distrust of mainstream media, has worked well with a large segment of GOP primary and caucus voters. He does not however sell that positive vision of ourselves. At least not yet.

Is he a good enough salesman to be able to adjust the sales pitch to a different customer base in time, convincingly, and without losing those he’s already sold?

If he is, he can win.