its hard to tell at this point; my first instinct is that the election’s result would be considered a dead heat if a poll, which most closely matches the option “its close,” a 49.x0-49.y (x > y) because usually non-major candidates combined get ~1%ish (many ultra-close states wind up like that in many types of races, or national races like 1960), hence the numbers not being supplemental to 100%.
Obama’s approvals are in the toss-up range, 40% < incumbent prez ratings < 50%. 1976, 2004, and 2012 had such scenarios. The Dem party has moved considerably to the left since 1992-2004, and thus West Virginia, Kentucky seem forlorn, even tho Bill won WV twice in landslides, Gore was somewhat close, and he won KY twice, narrowly tho. He won Arkansas in two landslides, but its since gone GOP. Missouri was close Obama in 2008, not in '12. Trump is loved by the so-called rednecks more than any GOPer in recent memory, maybe even GW Bush in 2000 and 2004, who Dubya also pandered to with the fake hick thing. So her electoral prospects have been hurt by Obama’s effect on the party. Trump does look poised to get similar type Dems from the MidWest, who are a little less socially conservative than southern whites, but much less liberal than Obama coalition whites. If and only if the GOP establishment gets behind Trump in big enough numbers, he can definitely win. Trump can also benefit even among northeast moderates turned off by Obama on transvestites, Middle East policy and Islamic immigration, etc, as those issues go strongly against Obama and his party (read: Hillary) in the polls.
Of course, if the GOP establishment doesn’t get behind Trump, it could depress turnout among moderate Republicans, who despite their lack of prominence in the primary, make up near a plurality of that party. If they stay home or even go Clinton, Trump could get blown away. Especially if Trump cannot quell the narrative of white-nationalists loving him or him inspiring beatings of people thought to be (or actually are) illegal immigrants. I don’t actually think most of Trump’s supporters are such people, but look what LBJ did to Goldwater 52 years ago. Plus, a lot of the negatives Hillary has, trustworthiness numbers, issues of money quid-pro-quo in the Clinton Foundation, Trump has them all too. If Obama’s job numbers go up and stay steadily and consistently above 50%, Trump’s ride gets even bumpier.