Trump General Election Viability Predictions

I see so much talk about how we shouldn’t underestimate Trump, that he will be stronger than we think in November, etc. I think this is patent nonsense. So I want to get people on the record in one thread that I can go back and rub your silly faces in when he gets wiped out (or else, if I’m wrong, you can rub my shocked face in when he doesn’t).

I voted “will lose by double digits”. My basic caveats are that it’s the plain vanilla election between the two current frontrunners: Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton, no significant third party action (that is, Trump and Clinton together account for >95% of the total popular votes cast). What would happen if it’s Trump vs. Sanders, or if other significant third parties are involved, is murkier. Worth discussing but not what my prediction is about.

So far I’ve been wrong on every one of my predictions about Trump and his voters.

That said, I do not think moderates will vote for him in the general election and he’ll lose by about 5-10 points.

What has me worried is that he’s going to be going up against an establishment politician in an anti-establishment election. Hillary already comes across as an political hack, and Trump has the ability to make her look much worse. People believe Trump is authentic because he says what’s on his mind, and they think the exact opposite about Clinton. That belief is driving most of the support for Sanders. Could there be room in the Trump coalition for angry, anti-establishment Democrats?

Trump wins by less than 5%.

ETA: I see I’m the first person who thinks this, so mark my words: Trump wins.

Prove me wrong, kids. Prove. Me. Wrong.

And no, I’m not at all happy about the fact that I think he’ll win, nor will I be happy when he does win.

I’ve had that feeling before, of predicting one outcome but hoping to be wrong. In this case I’m all lined up though: my expectation and hope are congruent.

Here it is again. I’m completely bewildered by this belief. Why the hell would you vote for someone whose stated political positions are anathema to you just because he’s “anti establishment”?

Robert Reich made a distressed facebook post the other day talking about voters he’s acquainted with or has seen on social media who say they are “trying to decide between Sanders and Trump.” Logically I don’t think there should be much overlap between these candidates in terms of voters.

The fact that there is some represents an age old problem in democracies–people who are dumb as shit get to vote and their vote counts just as much as a smart person’s.

Yes, there are plenty of idiots out there. But even idiots have deeply held beliefs, and generally stick to them, by definition. I just can’t think of a set of beliefs that accommodates both Sanders and Trump.

Then again, if they are idiots, maybe they just don’t have a grasp on what Sanders and/or Trump stand for. Okay, that I can buy.

Just yesterday I heard at least half a dozen lifelong union members talking about how they couldn’t wait to vote for Trump.

Here’s their thinking: they hate politicians. Politicians are lying jackasses who are out to line their own pockets and do the bidding of their corporate masters. Trump is not a politician and his pockets are already lined. Voting for Trump is big “fuck you” to politics in general and they don’t care that he’s an asshole. They’d rather say fuck you than worry about the consequences of their actions beyond the joy of saying fuck you.

And people especially hate Hillary Clinton. They’ve been told for more than 20 years what a lying, despicable, evil criminal cunt she is, and they believe it. They’d rather say “fuck you” to her and her establishment credentials than worry about what the alternative is.

They have no hope that things will change for the better because, in their eyes and ears, things are so much worse now than they were before. Facts do not matter to them. They won’t hear them. They already know what they know and any attempt to educate them or sway them is met with derision and disbelief.

This is what the GOP, Fox News, and the complacency of other media have wrought: Trump will win.

Why are Republicans voting for him? He came out against the war in Iraq, accused the Bush administration for lying about WMDs, came out in favor of funding planned parenthood, in favor of using eminent domain, and in favor of the government mandate for health insurance.

Voted less than two points with a Hillary win.

Come to my conclusion by playing with the 538 app.

Dialed college educated Whites from 2012’s 77% turnout 56%R to same turnout and 50/50.

Non-college educated Whites from 57% turnout 62% share to 67% turnout and 69% share.

Blacks from Obama’s 66% turnout and only 7%R share to 62% turnout and a more traditional 15%R share.

Moved Hispanics from 48% turnout and 29%R to a relatively riled 55% turnout and only 13%R share.

All seem reasonable (if not to bank on) and it results in a less than 2% Democratic win with EVs of 308 to 230.

Of course if all else is the same and he loses a bit less of the college educated White vote, instead of dropping 6% only drops 3%, then he wins by less than 1% and EV 286 to 252.

As I’ve posted before, I am hopeful and positive that the majority of Americans simply won’t vote for him because they don’t want an embarrassment representing the United States. People with half a brain will think about:

1)Trumpy giving a State Of the Union address
2)At a civil rights symposium
3)Meeting world leaders and greeting them with noogies instead of handshakes
4)If he quits, giving the White House to his running mate is as bad or worse than Palin

And on and on. At least that’s what I think about. Even if this orange disaster were a politician for his whole career, never went into real estate disasters and name branding, but he acted the same way, why the hell would I want to see his disfigured face in any of the above situations?

This is a pretty good estimate, I think – here’s mine, using 538’s tool:

Dialed college educated Whites from 2012’s 77% turnout 56%R to 78% turnout and 52%R.

Non-college educated Whites from 57% turnout 62% share to 72% turnout and 71% share.

Blacks from Obama’s 66% turnout and only 7%R share to 64% turnout and a 12%R share.

Moved Hispanics from 48% turnout and 29%R to a 65% turnout and only 12%R share.

Moved Asian/other from 49% turnout and 33%R to 60% turnout and 24% Republican share.

Totaled a Hillary win by a larger raw percentage (4.6%) than you but a smaller electoral win (294 to 244).

Obviously this could change a lot, and isn’t quite what my first guess was before using the tool.

I have no trouble believing any of that. What I *would *have trouble believing is if you told me those union guys (I’m assuming they’re all male?) voted for Obama in 2012.

I voted 2-5% Trump win, but I am not confident in the prediction at all. It’s based on the guess that Trump’s outsider status will drive a lot of people to the polls, and that he will shift to the middle while continuing to outperform expectations. But he might drive people to the polls to vote against him instead, and fail to be effective winning over voters in the general, so I could see it going just as far the other way.

Not all male; but yes, all but one person voted for Obama in 2008 and 2012. The subject came up.

Republicans have a very small, almost negligible, chance at winning the presidency. Trump has none, zero, nada. It will be a landslide in favor of Hillary.

I selected Trump loss by 5-10%, on the admittedly rather simplistic notion that he ends up with roughly half of the voters currently split among the other Republican candidates. If so, I don’t see any way he comes out of the general with a plurality. Of course, I’ve spent maybe a whole five minutes thinking about this, so there is plenty of room for error.

Wild cards: something very very bad turns up in Trump’s tax records or a now-defunct business dealing; Clinton finally gives the Republicans their long-awaited wet dream by getting indicted for something or other; Trump or Clinton health issues.

I would consider a health situation to nullify my prediction as well (and all of ours).

So…he thinks “politicians are lying jackasses who are out to line their own pockets and do the bidding of their corporate masters”, hence the desire to vote for Trump; but in 2012 he was down for reelecting President Obama. :confused: Okay, if you say so–I’m just not seeing a coherent narrative there.

its hard to tell at this point; my first instinct is that the election’s result would be considered a dead heat if a poll, which most closely matches the option “its close,” a 49.x0-49.y (x > y) because usually non-major candidates combined get ~1%ish (many ultra-close states wind up like that in many types of races, or national races like 1960), hence the numbers not being supplemental to 100%.

Obama’s approvals are in the toss-up range, 40% < incumbent prez ratings < 50%. 1976, 2004, and 2012 had such scenarios. The Dem party has moved considerably to the left since 1992-2004, and thus West Virginia, Kentucky seem forlorn, even tho Bill won WV twice in landslides, Gore was somewhat close, and he won KY twice, narrowly tho. He won Arkansas in two landslides, but its since gone GOP. Missouri was close Obama in 2008, not in '12. Trump is loved by the so-called rednecks more than any GOPer in recent memory, maybe even GW Bush in 2000 and 2004, who Dubya also pandered to with the fake hick thing. So her electoral prospects have been hurt by Obama’s effect on the party. Trump does look poised to get similar type Dems from the MidWest, who are a little less socially conservative than southern whites, but much less liberal than Obama coalition whites. If and only if the GOP establishment gets behind Trump in big enough numbers, he can definitely win. Trump can also benefit even among northeast moderates turned off by Obama on transvestites, Middle East policy and Islamic immigration, etc, as those issues go strongly against Obama and his party (read: Hillary) in the polls.

Of course, if the GOP establishment doesn’t get behind Trump, it could depress turnout among moderate Republicans, who despite their lack of prominence in the primary, make up near a plurality of that party. If they stay home or even go Clinton, Trump could get blown away. Especially if Trump cannot quell the narrative of white-nationalists loving him or him inspiring beatings of people thought to be (or actually are) illegal immigrants. I don’t actually think most of Trump’s supporters are such people, but look what LBJ did to Goldwater 52 years ago. Plus, a lot of the negatives Hillary has, trustworthiness numbers, issues of money quid-pro-quo in the Clinton Foundation, Trump has them all too. If Obama’s job numbers go up and stay steadily and consistently above 50%, Trump’s ride gets even bumpier.

I’ve been arguing that American voters can’t be that stupid and have Trump losing by 5-10% … but I’m suddenly afraid. Very afraid. The GOP will rally around Trump, if he’s the nominee, hoping they can control him. An alliance of gullible Republicans, racists and fools will be a majority easily in these United States. Sturdy old Christie stands by his side as Veep, building confidence. My main (only?) hope is that women will reject him in great numbers.

I worry that this is optimistic. Despite “Mexicans are rapists” are there hard numbers on how Trump is polling among Hispanics, many of whom are not Mexican?
Yes, one poll reports that only 7% of Hispanics like Trump, but only 8% like Rubio, and only 19% like Sanders.