I voted Trump loses by double digits but I confess the wish is father to the thought.
I voted for Trump loses by >= 2 points but less than 5
I have to take into account the media’s behavior, definitely they want to squeeze all those billions that are being tossed around by making this a horse race, by any means necessary; but still the media will make a lot of hay with the very ugly things Trump has said, because the democrats will not let them go away. And as I pointed before there will be a lot of Republicans that will go for “bullshit politics” and support Trump because they go for party over country.
So a close election, but the bullshit will not be enough because I do think there will be a significant number of moderate and smarter Republicans that will not accept Trump as their leader.
Wow, that 538 app is scary, scary stuff. I did College White 59 D, 80 turnout; Non-college White 77 R, 77 turnout; Black 89 D, 47 turnout; Hispanic 89 D, 59 turnout; and Asian/Other 79 D, 47 turnout…and I got 50.9 percent pop vote for Clinton (vs. 47.4 for Trump), with 332 electoral votes for Clinton, and 206 for Trump.
BUT… Move that non-college white figures just a little bit, and Trump wins. I think it’s especially plausible to move the turnout even higher than the 77 per cent I gave. If you hit 80, it’s all over.
Looking at iiandiii and DSeid’s predictions, it’s even scarier. Neither of them moved the college-educated whites clearly into the D column (one of them had it at 50-50). I find this astounding…but I defer to their better-informed judgment. And, now that I think about it, I see their point – college-educated doesn’t mean academically-inclined – plenty of working-class whites went to college.
With my figures, but with the college whites at 50-50, I’m almost sure Trump wins. Ouch.
Trump loses by double digits. At some point, all but his hard-core supporters will be turned off by his lack of knowledge and abrasive personality. Hillary will make him look like a kid in the principal’s office during the debates. The RNC will not even put more than token money, if that, into his campaign. They’ll conserve their cash to stem the bleeding downballot.
Me too. For that reason, and one other, I’m not voting – the other reason being, I have no real idea.
My unreal idea is that it depends on events. If the economy stays about the same, and there aren’t any headline-dominating Islamist terror attacks, and no US-supported regimes utterly and completely collapse, etc., etc., sure, Hillary wins.
Now we’re talking! The country some of these people think we are living in might have elected Obama in 2008, but definitely would not have reelected him, much less comfortably. And now the economy’s better than in 2012 and the electorate is more diverse.
Honestly, I would say the exact same thing about Trump’s support from Republicans. Look at Trumps life history. Other than the last ten years (birther nonsense and the current campaign), what has he actually done that makes him the “true conservative” his supporters say they want?
Lord knows true conservatives shouldn’t be thrilled by his string of divorces, his commercial empire built on sin, his lack of church affiliations, his financial support of candidates from both sides of the aisle, and his policy positions that change whenever it’s convenient for him.
If he can get 30% of Republicans to overlook those details, surely he can do the same to disaffected anti-establishment Dems.
Dracoi, this isn’t the Pit so I will try to choose my words carefully. I guess I would ask, as a Democrat, why you would think we would be as likely as certain segments of the GOP (present company excluded of course) to just blindly follow someone whose values ran diametrically opposite to ours?
What makes you think his conservative supporters remember, and have carefully considered, his acts and words previous to the past decade? That’s a long time.
The highly esteemed political reporter John Harwood retweeted this prediction that Trump will manage only 41-42% after Hillary gets done with a “scorched earth” campaign against him. Assuming that is operating with an assumption of no significant third party candidates, that would be well into double digits.
Well, part of what I’m saying is that Trump’s views aren’t diametrically opposed to a Democrat’s. His campaign so far is, yes. But Trump himself, no. I doubt that Trump believes even half of what he says. And the fact that Trump will do whatever it takes to win points in the moment makes me think that he could easily throw a bone to liberals in a last-minute pivot to the center.
But beyond that, I don’t think voters on either side of the political spectrum are any more or less prone to getting caught up in their emotions and overlooking minor policy contradictions. People are people, I think, and voters are always struggling to pick the “least bad” option.
I think Trump will lose a small, but measurable, chunk of Romney voters* while Clinton will more or less hold what Obama had in 2012. Romney lost by four points, so I think Trump will loose by 5-6ish points.
*There are a fair number of blue-state GOP senators up for re-election who are going to be seriously tempted to actively campaign against Trump. Its hardly rare for Senators in states dominated by the other party to put some distance between themselves and their parties candidates, and there have been a few cases where one or two Senators have actively campaigned against their parties nominee in the general. But I think this might be the first election I’ve been alive for where a sizable faction of Senators did so.
Its hard not to see that hurting Trump’s numbers with at least blue-state, moderate ex-Romney voters.
Not “he”; “they”.
They aren’t coherent; haven’t you been paying attention? Trump supporters are mad as hell and they’re not gonna take it anymore. THEY DO NOT CARE FOR FACTS NOR ABOUT CONSEQUENCES. They see Trump acting out and they like it, because they want to be able to act out as well. They will do so at the polls this year, saying “fuck you” in the only way they think they reasonably can because part of their anger is fueled by their perceived impotence in the governance of this country.
They gave Hope & Change a chance for 8 years and all they hear from the people speaking to them in the media is that things suck in America. They don’t trust the establishment because Obama is still President, they don’t trust the Democrats because of what they hear from media personalities, they don’t trust Hillary because nobody trusts Hillary. They don’t really trust Donald, but they don’t care: they just want to say “fuck you” to politics and government.
I’m not condoning their attitudes; just explaining what I’m hearing and seeing.
I am not at all confused by the story of “angry blue collar white people lash out incoherently at various parts of government, and latch on to Trump”. That’s clear as crystal. The only part of that story I don’t get is the “voted for Obama in 2012” part. That’s it. That’s what I can’t wrap my head around. Inchoate Tea Party fury was at a fever pitch then. Why didn’t they catch it? What has happened between 2012 and 2016 to change their whole outlook? That is the time period when the economy has been rapidly improving, so it’s not that. What, then?
Republican obstructionism was the obvious reason Obama couldn’t get much done; now he’s had 3 more years (although these folks would tell you he’s had 4 more years) to get things done and he hasn’t, so he hasn’t delivered on his promise of Hope & Change. The media keep hammering on how the only thing he got done was the PPACA and that’s always ALWAYS referred to as Obamacare (and the term is always used as a perjorative). These are union members, mind you, who refer to taxes as “theft”. :rolleyes:
And the economy hasn’t been improving, if you listen to the only media outlets that talk about the economy: Fox News trumpets all day about how crappy the economy is, how jobs have been destroyed (by Obamacare, natch) and how America is no longer great. All they hear, all day long, is doom & gloom. And frankly, the economy overall is better, but many (most?) folks haven’t seen that translate to wage increases. People are still working hard just to keep afloat; they certainly aren’t prospering like we all thought we were 15 years ago. Half of that 15 years, to them, is Obama’s fault. It’s what they hear from every corner, every day, all day.
Do you think the Bundyites truly exist in a vacuum? In Nevada, the drumbeat says only a few things, chief among them are everything sucks and it’s government’s fault. And lots of people in these parts believe that. They aren’t satisfied with the [del]idiots[/del]people they elected and they’re gonna show their contempt by further undermining the system as much as they anonymously can, because they perceive that’s the extent of their power and influence.
Angry people who feel powerless are actually very dangerous people, IMO.
probably the George Zimmerman case, in which Obama injected himself, something Clinton avoided during OJ Simpson, Obama giving Bruce Jenner an award even tho a lot more of the country only sees two genders than opposes gay marriage (because LGB “intersectionality” with T is a bunch of BS), the Iran deal, the Netanyahu spat (reflecting how Obama’s view of Israel is out of touch with America), and several other things which demontrate Obama’s cultural tone deafness.
On another note, I stand by this from October: Can Donald Trump Actually Win The White House? - Politics & Elections - Straight Dope Message Board
To hear you talk, one wouldn’t guess that Obama’s approval ratings have been relatively strong lately.
Trump is currently playing to the base; how well he does in November will depend upon how far he veers to the centre.
Hillary will go all out in negative attacks, with a very robust opposition research program (which, reportedly, Rubio and Cruz don’t have). If this is successful, and they find some really bad stuff that hasn’t yet come to light about Trump, it could torpedo his candidacy and result in a landslide.
But that’s a big if, so we’ll see.