I’m curious as to how sensationalized and unrealistic this site is.
Basically, the claim made there is that within the next 5-10 years, world oil supplies will have reached their peak (and may already have done so) and as supplies deplete, society will be unable to function. We’re so dependant on cheap oil, and without it, there simply isn’t enough resources to sustain the amount of life we’ve built up. So there will be war and starvation and a huge die-off, reducing the population to under 2 billion, or as low as 500,000.
So how likely a scenario is that? If not that, do you think something else will cause a similar downfall of human society in the near future? If so, what?
I think realistically, when oil supplies dry up, and if we haven’t found another form of energy, there would likely be war and starvation, but I suspect even without oil the world can provide for more than 2 billion people, right?
Since we’ve recently debated (in a couple of threads) whether the collapse of the oil economy is imminent, might I humbly suggest that for the purposes of this thread we assume that the oil economy is not sustainable, and debate the impact when it does begin to fail? Just a suggestion.
Making that assumption, my two cents is that a collapse of the oil economy will cancel out globalization concerns, as increased transportation costs make it harder and harder to efficiently import and distribute manufactured goods from, say, China. (In other words, pricier fuel used in transporting goods will ultimately add so much to the cost of those goods that it will be more efficient to manufacture them here in the US.) Could ultimately force manufacturing to be widely dispersed among small shops close to the point of consumption. Thoughts on that notion?
Also, I can imagine a return to rail distribution as the most efficient means of transporting goods, and a corresponding increase in urban living as consumers gravitate toward points of distrbution. Or not. Maybe there will be more rural dwellers as more people return to raising most of their own staples. Hmm.
Sorry, but as much as I think the world’s population is stretching past supportable limits, and that there will likely be huge calamities as oil supplies shrink (like, say, the free-for-all warfare that’s bound to hit Central Asia–more so than it has already–as US, Russian, Chinese, and Indian forces decide that THEY should be the ones to have access to all of that nice, untapped oil and natural gas), I can in no way conceive of any manmade catastrophe that will reduce the population to 2 billion or less. No way–esp. since population is expected to hit 9 billion by about the time all of this is projected to go down. Seven to eight billion deaths? Sorry, but even with major famines and free nuclear weapons use, I don’t see it happening. Nothing short of an asteroid impact would get us to 2 billion.
Gee whiz, I just love end-of-the-world predictions. Especially after a couple of drinks.
the whole question is silly–saying we are dependant on “cheap” oil.“Cheap” is a very vague concept. Americans love to panic when the price of a gallon of gas goes up 20 cents. But most people in Europe pay 4 or 5 dollars per gallon, and guess what:–they dont complain !!! They think it’s normal, 'cause they’ve been paying the same price for as long as they can remember.
My point is that people can adjust to any “unbearable” situation within a couple of months.We did it in 1973 when the oil crisis hit suddenly.Americans may have to give up their SUV’s and Hummers and go back to driving the cars theybought by the millions in the 1970’s–Ford Pinto, Chevy Chevette. But it wont be the end of the world.
sure, there will be other effects–the price of electricity will increase, and shipping costs, etc will push the cost of living up by. But what’s the big panic about? The price of housing changes all the time , as interest rates change at the mortgage banks. If the average american has to pay an extra , say $400 a month for gasoline,electriciity and higher prices at Walmart, then he will just cut $400 from his other expenses. ( take a cheaper mortgage, or buy a smaller house,rent an apt a bit farther away) The market will respond to supply and demand as people have less money to spend, housing prices will drop…and maybe Chicago Reader will stop demanding paid subscription for readingStraightdope.)
The first thing I thought of was that people would move away from urban areas and either live off the land themselves or in smaller self-sustaining communities, but since the population is too great for everyone to do that, I can see urban growth as well.
I think before anything drastic happens, the first effects would be the loss of excess consumption. Right now, in terms of gas and clothes and food and everything else, we use far far more than we need to survive. If a catastrophic decrease in oil happens anytime soon, the first effect would just be a drastically lower quality of life. Before anyone starved to death, we would probably see the end of most “unneccesary” oil-heavy industries, starting with the most visibly wasteful things like SUVs. We wouldn’t eat as much, stop using electricity if we don’t have to, and so on. I think it’s a big logical leap to go from that to people starving to death.
Well, as has been said, this has been done before several times recently. My own gut feeling is that its an exaggeration, and I’m still unsure if there is even a crisis looking at the two sides. I think there is a lot more oil out there than some of the hysterics are saying, and I also think there are some very viable alternative such as solar, methane hydrates and hydrogen fuel cell technology, as well as old stand by’s like nuclear fission power which could be ramped up.
This is a much more interesting debate. Assuming that indeed the hysterics are correct and we are about to or have already hit the Peak Oil threshold, and assuming that no viable alternative is found to replace it then I think the impact will initially be (obviously) higher and higher prices for fuel and energy. In addition we will obviously begin seeing higher prices for everything from food to manufactured goods.
Depending on how rapidly this takes place will make the difference on how sever it is. If its a gradual increase in price and a slow process of rationing going into effect (maybe citizens will get chits for X number of gallons of gas a week, X amount of electricity time per household, etc) then we will probably end up building down to a lower technology level gradually, and we will probably avoid mass starvation and war, at least here in America and probably in Europe and other western nations. China and other emerging nations might be screwed reguardless, though. If it happens rapidly where suddenly fuel is scarce and prices shoot up across the board, then it could very well spell the doomsday scenerio that the hysterics are moaning about. I can certainly see such a situation exploding as folks starve even in western nations due to the price of food skyrocketting, or people freezing due to lack of electricity in their homes, etc etc. And of course it would be 10 times worse in the emerging economic nations, not to mention 3rd world nations.
That should have been build down to a lower CONSUMPTION level, not TECHNOLOGY level. Though I suppose thinking about it we might go back to something like a 19th century tech base if it got REALLY bad.
Is anyone else starting to wonder if the people behind that sight are spamming the SDMB with links to it, couched in gently sceptical terms? This is, like, the fourth time in the last couple months that someone’s opened a thread with a link and a mildly worded “should I really believe this stuff?” question?
Or did I miss that site being on the news or something? Why is it coming up so often lately?
You know, I never thought of that. Now that SDMB is a pay site you can’t tell how many posts someone who is a ‘Guest’ has. Of course, if this was their intent its failed pretty badly. Even those who think that the Peak Oil wal is near or even here have been pretty skeptical about the 4-5 billion deaths and end of the world as we know it thing.
I have noticed that the OP who starts a thread about this using that cite rarely puts in a second appearence.
I’d characterize the die off as the agenda / wistful thinking of some of the more extreme eco-nazi groups such as Deep Ecology. One of their platform items specifies that the world needs a significant decrease in the human population.
*5) The flourishing of human life and cultures is compatible with a substantial decrease of the human population. The flourishing of nonhuman life requires such a decrease.
*
Nah, its just like any other internet trend, its making the “rounds” and will soon be fading away like any other iFad. This one gets posted a few more bulletin boards like the SDMB as opposed to simple email spams since people want to know the facts (or complete lack of them) behind the tale.
That said, some of these sites are serious woowoo and I wonder why anyone is taking such low-rent doomsday talk seriously. Others are better, but still seem to be hiding behind deceptive figures and quotes.
I’ll start worrying when the oil company geologists start wringing their hands nervously.
Great article, thanks for the link. I especially liked this part:
"He adds dryly that Scientific American doomster Colin Campbell has been predicting that the peak of oil production is three to four years away for the past 15 years. "
Funny, I hear the same thing from UFO nuts and JFK buffs about how in a few years there’s going to be a great revelation.
No, of course not. People should only listen to us unquestioningly.
Regarding this, I don’t think society would suddenly end. O_o It isn’t like we’ll hit the bottom of the tank all at once. No reason not to begin investing in alternate resources and the like, but nothing to panic over.
Also, the issue is coming up more and more in mainstream media. I have seen articles that touch on the subject in newspapers, on cnn, in The Nation, etc.
That is why this keeps coming up - it is becoming more and more accepted that oil production is soon to be peaking, now they are more arguing over when (as in 20 years from now or now, or 10 years from now) and what is to be done when it occurs. Also some things happening in the world now (Iraq) might have partly to do with the facts about oil production.
Price of oil and gas also keep this issue at the forefront.
Get used to hearing about peak oil, by next year you will see more and more information about this event, as it will become one of the defining events of our times and cause some big changes in our way of life.
Keep an open mind, and study the facts. Don’t assume a technological “genie” will fix everything, or a market “magic” will make everything ok , look into the facts.
Regards
adamant
Or this from former oil geologist (now professor at Princeton) :
I don’t know why I’m bothering, but I just had to comment on adamant’s “market ‘magic’” crack.
What is so magical about the idea that increased prices means lower demand? Yes, in the short term demand for gasoline is inelastic…people have to get to work, and buying a new car, getting a new job, or getting new housing are decisions that aren’t made on a week-by-week or month-by-month basis. But people and industries do respond to price information. And there are many easy ways that people can reduce their demand for gasoline. Like get a smaller car or live closer to their work or take public transportation or telecommute. And this even without postulating any sort of replacement technology, just reduced use of gasoline with today’s technology. Not hard to figure out.
How much cheap oil is left? Hard to say. Maybe everyone in China and India will never get to have two SUV’s per household like we do in the US. But US levels of gasoline consumption are hardly neccesary for first-world economy. SEE: Europe, Japan. If people in China and India have to ride in trains to get to their office buildings in 2050 instead of driving single occupant internal combustion vehicles I won’t exactly be shedding tears for them.
If oil prices are double or triple their current levels in 10 years it will be hard on the economy. But why would that mean doom? Supply. Demand. The relationship between them. Nothing magical about it.