I’ve visited this board, never registered, and I hope that I can find a definite, factual answer about this subject. I know this will seem to ask for an opinion but I have only been able to find opinionated pieces on the web rather than anything with actual facts and figures. Plus I don’t want to be sent over to Great Debates.
Is the world really experiencing the pangs of peak oil and in fifty years or less there won’t be enough crude of any grade to grease a snake? Is there enough oil, if sought, to maintain our technology?
Right now I believe that the USian war machine is drawing heavily upon these resources. Our administration is quietly blaming China’s burgeoning economy in hopes of engendering a second “yellow peril”. Plus with Putin’s machinations with Yukos has put a hit on production. Back in high school I heard that Russia’s oil fields would put the Saudis to shame. Of course this is just opinion and I should shut up now and listen to the rest of you fine people.
Links to other threads in other forums, even GD, are welcome.
On page 8 it mentions estimates of peak oil anywhere from 2006 to 2025 to no visible peak. These estimates were compiled by different groups. The document mentions there is inherent uncertainty in predicting this so who knows?
How someone could say there is no peak oil issue visible though is beyond me. Oil resources on the planet are finite and being used up. Sooner or later there just won’t be any more oil (or whatever oil is left will be prohibitively expensive to extract). Rough estimates on the oil running out usually range in the 30 or so year range but again there is a wide margin of error there.
As for the US military being a significant oil consumer they are but for all they use they are still a drop in the bucket compared to overall US consumption not to mention worldwide consumption. War or no war I doubt the oil issues we see today would be significantly changed either way.
I also do not see claiming China as a source of the oil crunch as being a “yellow scare”. It is simply the truth…or at least a factor. Chinese oil consumption as risen dramatically and continues to rise. They are as free to buy oil as anyone else is. I do not see anyone blaming the Chinese. It is just a statement of facts. Current oil production will have a hard time keeping up as this continues unless more oil is pumped up and more refineries come online. As with anything it is an economic consideration. If prices rise high enough someone will deem it worthwhile to drill a new well or build a new refinery. Market forces and all that jazz.
And have been in the range of 30 years or so for the last 100 years or so. That’s why it’s hard to have any faith in such estimates. It’s quite imposible to find a year in the 20th century when oil wasn’t predicted to ‘run out’ within 30 years.
Most indepedent organsations like the WEO, WEC, USGS and so forth use 30 years as the ‘foreseeable future’ because predictions beyond that point are so unreliable, and they see no signs of oil running out or becoming scarce within that time.