There’s not a lot of mystery as to why the U.S. gave more of a crap about Europe being overrun. But neither Japan nor Germany was a real threat to the homeland. It was a matter of which allies we cared more about.
At a little after two o’clock in the morning on Monday, January 19, 1942, an earthquake-like rumble tossed fifteen-year-old Gibb Gray from his bed. Furniture shook, glass and knickknacks rattled, and books fell from shelves as a thundering roar vibrated through the walls of the houses in Gibb’s Outer Banks village of Avon [North Carolina]. Surprised and concerned, Gibb’s father rushed to the windows on the house’s east side and looked toward the ocean. “There’s a fire out there!” he shouted to his family. Clearly visible on the horizon, a great orange fireball had erupted. A towering column of black smoke blotted out the stars and further darkened the night sky.
Only seven miles away, a German U-boat had just torpedoed the 337-foot-long U.S. freighter, City of Atlanta, sinking the ship and killing all but three of the 47 men aboard. The same U-boat attacked two more ships just hours later. Less than six weeks after the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor, the hostilities of the Second World War had arrived on America’s East Coast and North Carolina’s beaches.
Perhaps there’s a reason that Roosevelt, the Secretary of the Navy, the vast majority of the American people, and the Navy’s priorities in the first year of the war (until Germany’s fortunes started to turn down on the Russian front) all regarded Hitler as the primary threat.
The immediate risk was to the proximate countries overseas, but also risk of hostilities against the US. Blackouts were being imposed in major US cities upon declaration of war. The direct risk, over the longer term, was a consolidated Third Reich that might control and could direct the full resources of all of Europe and the Soviet Union against the US. To say that this was “preposterous” is to ignore the realities of the time. As early as 1942, German U-boats were attacking US vessels off the east coast at nighttime, aided by their visibility against the lit skyline, and were sighted in the Gulf of Mexico and elsewhere.
Do I really have to google the equally inconsequential episodes of Japan shelling the west coast? Do I have to google up for you the impossibility of Germany invading Britain let alone the U.S.? If we were living in 1941 I could accept your fear of German forces, can’t now.
This is the same gripe I have about people who say things to the effect of, “If you are speaking English in America, thank an American soldier,” as if any modern foreign force ever stood a chance of conquering America.
But that being said - although Nazi Germany could never have invaded America proper, the dominion of Nazi Germany over all of Europe - had it thus succeeded - would have vastly influenced world affairs for decades to come, and in a way inimical to American interests. Kind of like how if the USSR had rolled through all of Western Europe, it wouldn’t threaten an inch of American soil - but economically and diplomatically, as Frederick Forsyth puts in his novel* The Devil’s Alternative*, it would have meant “Soviet domination of nearly the entire world.”
Well, I’m not positve imperial Japan controlling Asia would have had a negligible effect on the next few decades either.
Forsyth’s point is even more cogent if Hitler’s Germany had prevailed over Britain, which was absolutely possible, and might well have happened if Germany had not been divided on two major fronts. But Hitler under different circumstances could have overrun Soviet Russia, too, or alternately, forged a new pact with Stalin for joint aggression.
The US spent the entire Cold War in fear of just the Soviet Union alone, and to be fair, the Soviets felt the same way about the US. They grew to be balanced superpowers. But the idea that, had history turned out differently, the whole of the European continent and an occupied Nazi Britain and the Soviets combined, all under Nazi control as a single military power, could not have conquered – let alone posed a significant threat to – the United States at that time is just the height of arrogance and historical revisionism.
Japan’s logic was basically: “I’ve got the biggest hammer in the Pacific right now. If I don’t strike now I’ll never have another chance.” They missed the US carriers though, which was the only useful goal. The attack was audacious and brilliant but in the end all they did is disable a few obsolete battleships. If those old battlewagons actually sailed they would have probably been sunk at sea by air power rather than in a safe harbor which would have probably cost even more lives. The Japanese carrier force could have been used much more effectively and safer too closer to home, IMO.
IMO the Japanese would have been much better off seeking a peaceful course but they’d spent a decade building the best fleet in the ocean and they had to try it out, simple as that. But then, after decades of studying military history I’ve pretty much concluded that war is always a mistake, so that’s my bias.
How? Would a Wehrmacht invasion fleet sail across the Atlantic? :dubious:
If all of Europe joined forces right now as a coherent military force, even leaving in the US’s massive aid to recover fron WW2, they could not come close to conquering the United States. Your position is quite laughable. Calling my position “historical revisionism” is bordering on a comedy routine.
Instead of destroying the entire US fleet forever, the Japanese only succeeded in delaying the inevitable:
Since no one is talking about “right now”, this seems like just an argumentative digression. There is certainly a vast difference between Europe as it exists now and as it may have existed under the Nazis, which might have encompassed virtually the whole of Eurasia.
In point of fact, as I stated here, the president of the United States, his senior Cabinet members, Congress, and an absolutely overwhelming proportion of the American public all felt that Nazi expansionism and Hitler’s endless pursuit of global domination would pose an existential threat to America. Anyone who argues against this must believe that all these people were idiots.
What is indisputably factual is that only the vagaries of random circumstances determined the triumphs of the RAF, the downfall of the Nazi forces on the Russian front, and the achievements of the Enigma code-cracking operations, or the presence of the overwhelming support of US forces in the latter stages of the war in Normandy. It could all have turned out completely differently. We could indeed be living in a completely different world, the kind that George Orwell wrote about three years after the end of the war.
Besides, “immediate threat to the entire western world”, that would be only England. The rest had already been dealt with or was already friendly and Germany would much rather have made peace with Britain. It had no real intentions of actually invading England.
Again, how? Hitler would send an invasion fleet across the Atlantic?
A nitpick but the embargo was imposed due to the invasion of French Indochina not the earlier invasion of China.
As I’ve written, I think Japan had a middle option between accepting American demands and attacking America. Japan could have responded to the embargo by attacking British and Dutch colonies in SE Asia to secure its own source of oil (which it did) but do so without attacking American possessions. I’ve already said that I don’t feel America would have declared war on Japan in order to defend other country’s colonies. And Britain and the Netherlands were in no position to hold off Japan on their own. Without an American enemy, Japan could have consolidated its position in Southeast Asia and brought more pressure against China. (Japan would have also been smarter to put more effort into making the collaborationist Wang regime seem like a legitimate alternative to Chiang or Mao.)
At some point I feel America and Germany would have ended up at war, although it’s hard to say who would have made the declaration of war. From that point, Japan would have had a relatively free hand in Asia as the Americans and Soviets fought the Germans and the British were forced to put only minimal effort into regaining its lost colonies.
So around 1944 or 1945, Germany would have been defeated. But a follow-up war with Japan was not inevitable. Japan by this point should have had a pretty secure hold on its East Asian empire. The colonial powers of Britain, France, and the Netherlands would be exhausted by the war in Europe and not in a position to start a second war against Japan. Neither the Soviet Union or the United States would have any interest in assisting them; neither power had any “skin in the game” and both were on record as condemning imperialism. And at this point, America and Russia saw each other as the next threat on the horizon. Japan, as a strong regional power, would have been courted as a potential ally.
The Luftwaffe was working on a heavy bomber capable of crossing the Atlantic, although the Amerika project was eventually abandoned as too resource-intensive in the later months of the war. The Nazis also had a nuclear weapons program, albeit one with an unfortunate tendency to see its researchers drafted and sent to the Russian front.
Now imagine what would happen if those two projects had both succeeded.
By December 1941, the United States is very far from truly neutral.
-It is openly offering lend lease to the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union
-Things like Destroyers for Bases and taking over Iceland under an expanded ‘Hemisphere Defense Line’ have assisted the UK.
-The USA has created embargoes against Japan that have essentially thwarted it.
The critical question is–was war between the Axis Powers and the United States inevitable? It seems like the stage is set for a WWI sort of incident to provoke the USA into the war and FDR is definitely willing to accept ‘provocative’. How long until an American merchantman, carrying war material or trying to run a risk for the UK, has some kind of incident that causes war?
Now there are no givens with this. It’s quite possible that there is a near crisis, and it makes FDR look irresponsible; it’s also possible that a crisis never happens. I think it’s likely there is a later war, I don’t think inevitable is quite right.
On the Japanese side, the one issue that’s a bleeding sore for them is China.
They’ve won quite a bit in China. The KMT has fled for the interior of the country and most of China’s economy is in Japan’s hands. In a war between decent nations, China would fold and Japan’s victory would be tolerable. Instead, Japan is doing horrible things like medical experiments, wantonly looting, raping and murdering the Chinese people, and leaving them with no real choice but to fight for their future.
Japan needs a coherent goal in China. It needs to earn the buy-in of the Chinese people, and with that foundation in place, the hope of creating a Japanese Raj is not impossible. Chiang Kai-Shek lost the Chinese Civil War against the communists and his previous failure to make common cause with them against the Japanese does not look good for his government.
Japan fought this war in China all the way until VJ day in 1945; I’m not sure whether to call this effort a “Didn’t try” or “Didn’t try very hard”. They committed the troops but they never really asked themselves what winning in China meant. Almost by definition, Japan can’t win in China.
This creates the larger situation. Japan can’t afford this war forever, and even more pressing than the finances are the previously mentioned stocks of oil. Japan runs out of oil in 6 months and money in perhaps 18.
War with the United States seems likely.
War with the United States later means taking on more carriers (Essex comes out in 1943, thanks to the two ocean navy program, followed by others)
I think the best strategy for Japan would be the one it had the power to try all along–get the best deal it can in China and return to a normalcy it can afford.
If there is going to be war, the party I’d try would be the Soviets. Take Vladivostok, Sakhalin’s limited oil supply, and throw everything north. The Soviet Union is fighting a life or death struggle against Germany. If Japan moves north, there’s no experienced Siberian troops to stop Germany’s advance in the Moscow area in 1942. This is exactly as bad as it sounds. Now, Japan isn’t going to do well against Soviet Troops…but it doesn’t really need to, to push the Soviet Union off the brink.
Even if the Soviet Union utterly mauls the Kwangtung Army, Japan will continue the fight. Manchuria can fall, Korea will not given the IJN’s advantages, but this is a war that the Soviet Union can’t afford. Moscow for Manchuria is a good trade for the Axis powers, and a temporary one–there would be a continued cycle of Summer offensives by Germany and attempts to shore up the situation in Winter by the Soviets, but it would continue to drive East, leaving the Soviets with less and less to fight with. Eventually they sue for peace with Japan or they simply withdraw their armed forces and hold a line they can hold.
But there’s no getting around the fact that attack the Soviets means getting chewed up initially. And that’s a hard road to hoe; plus, if the Germans still lose against the Soviets, the whole situation is FUBARed.
Pearl Harbor makes sense if JAPAN MUST ATTACK America.
Pearl Harbor meant that the other gamble, trying to keep America out of the War, wasn’t tried, and it seems like that one was more promising.
The USN had 7 operational Aircraft carriers as of Dec 1941 ( not counting the Langley, CV1)
The Essex class CV, the backbone of the USN WWII carrier fleet were built starting July 1940. They built like 37 of them thru 1945
The Two Ocean Navy act authorized 18 more carriers, and was passed in July 1940.
Thanks, silenus.
Well I can imagine what would happen if I wake up tomorrow and I’m an NFL quarterback and I’m a movie star. I can imagine a lot of stuff. But this isn’t “Great Fantasy” it’s “Great Debates.”
The United States atomic bomb project was massive in scope, with some of the brightest minds in the world. They had natural resources and enormous amounts of electric power at their disposal, with no disruption from the war or from bombing. I’m not even going to address Germany’s ability to develop and fly a bomber that can carry the non-existent atomic bomb 4,000 miles one way.
Nazi Germany had absolutely no ability to reach out and touch the United States, crazy “what if” scenarios notwithstanding. The Nazi’s may have been a bigger threat to the Western world than Japan, but that’s another debate.
Put it on a submarine. Two subs go to NY. Transfer the crew, set the timer and scuttle the sub with the bomb on it. The sub with two crews runs like hell.
Heisenberg was fighting with the Luftwaffe which wanted radium for instrument panels. I don’t see how they enough nuclear material for the reactor he built, let alone to make a weapon.