Bad credit reports due to Y2K errors: 70%
Loss of electric power for less than one day 55%
Loss of electric power for more than one day: 40%
Loss of international phone service: 35%
Errors with social security payments: 35%
Errors in first January paycheck: 30%
Errors or delays in tax refunds: 30%
Airline flight delays/cancellations: 25%
Loss of local telephone service: 20%
Manufacturing shut downs of <1 day 20%
Errors in bank account balances: 15%
Disruption of stock market trading: 15%
Errors in hotel/motel reservations: 12%
Delays or cancellations of shipping: 10%
Delays in UPS or FedEx deliveries: 10%
Food shortages/rationing: 3%
Death of injuries due to Y2K 1%
This was a blurb that appeared in a local paper when I was in Florida over New Year’s.
Here’s what I’m curious about:
How did these people arrive at these percentages?
What two number did they divide to come up with them?
I bet two numbers did not exist, and they’re just WAGs.
OK, so how did they arrive at such WAGs? Ya know, what “formula” tells you there’s a 55% chance of a power outage?
The source was a “Capers Jones, CEO of Software Productivity Research of Burlington, MA.”
One possible way is this:
poll 100 electrical utilities and ask them if they think there will be loss of electrical power for less than one day. If 55 out of 100 say yes, then give it a 55% chance. If they’re fancy, they’ll weight each response by how many customers each utility has. This can be repeated for each of the numbers. Of course this assumes that the “experts” you ask aren’t just making up numbers too!
Of course, I’d bet that they just asked someone in each field what they thought, and printed a number that each mentioned.
Arjuna34