PGA Tour 2015

A large victory margin is a good indicator that the winner established total control over the outcome.

Alternately, we can compare the winning score to the average. This indicator is known as the “z-score.” Here are the best Masters z-scores, as of last year:

By this measure, the 1965 Nicklaus win tops the list, despite a lesser victory margin than Tiger achieved in 1997.

This year’s result by Spieth is scored at minus-2.8:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2015/04/13/jordan-spieth-was-more-dominating-in-first-masters-win-than-tiger-woods/

Spieth’s z-score now ranks 5th all-time (between 1964 Arnold Palmer and 1996 Nick Faldo).

Here’s a (2011) list of z-score rankings for all majors (since 1960):

Tiger’s 2000 US Open is easily the best.

I would not, no. Given the selection format I’ve said I prefer, too many of the results would effectively be out of a player’s hands. I could maybe see a “participation payment” to help the lower ranked players defray expenses and pay their caddies.

I respectfully vote no to the Ryder Cup expansion idea. I think Rory McIlroy summarized the event perfectly in 2009:

I suspect several other players would agree if they were allowed to be honest.

Especially the Americans. Golf is not a team sport. To me, the Ryder Cup is a sort of goofy sideshow. It can be fun to watch, but ultimately means nothing.

Having said that, I will say that the FedEx Cup has turned out to be something worthwhile. When they first announced it, it seemed not only impossible to understand, but completely unececessary.

My only question: which is more BS - inability to “activate his glutes”, or “a bone popped out and I just popped it back in. No big deal.”?! :smiley:

Dunno about the cottage cheese - seemed like every shot of the guys teeing off on 1 had (IMO) an extremely hot woman in the background. Was a little sad when the last pair went off…

Watched most of the final round on FF. Not much passing for drama. Spieth is a heck of a player. Just one more young gun who doesn’t know enough to participate in the traditional “Tiger fade” of a decade ago.

Tiger is still a phenomenal talent. He’s capable of a top 10 in any tourney he enters. And lightning will strike such that he gets hot (and healthy) enough to win several more tourneys. But the margin is getting finer and finer in terms of majors.

His evermore limited schedule makes it even harder for me to care about him. He comes out of the blue for a big event, then disappears for a month. If years pass and he doesn’t grab a couple more Ws, will we see him playing the John Deere to try to pass Sammy?

Wonder how that wrist is feeling today… Hell of a competitor, to follow that up with an eagle. Wish he wasn’t such an asshole, and that SOMEONE had stepped forward to challenge him when he was at his peak.

I agree, Augusta is gorgeous (I attended a couple of Masters back in the 80’s, and it was breathtaking in person), but it’s not like the golfers are in a studio. You see Augusta all around them. Cutting away to show a heron for a few seconds is fine, but there’s no need for a five-minute travelogue. That’s what the pre-show is for.

As for MTV direction, that’s not what I want. Of course they should take 20 seconds or so to provide context for the shots. But there is no need whatever to show a player taking two minutes to choose his club. Putting the broadcast on a 20-second delay would allow them to know when he finally hits his shot, so they could cut to him then and set up the shot for the viewer. It might even allow them to do what every mom and pop radio station has done for 50 years, and bleep out the cursing, which is destroying the moral fiber of our nation’s youth.

Thanks for the very interesting links, but I have to believe that something is wrong with the methodology when it put’s Faldo’s 1996 win in the top five of dominating performances. The 1996 Masters is remembered as arguably the most spectacular collapse of a final round leader in major championship history. Even Van de Velde only blew one hole, not the whole round.

The problem may be that the Masters has a much smaller and weaker field than the other majors, since it only invites 70-100 players, and includes many amateurs, old-timers, and Asian players who really don’t belong in a world class event. So comparing the winner’s score against the field average may be misleading.

I enthusiastically agree that Jack’s 1965 Masters belongs at or near the top, though. I watched every minute of that on TV, and was blown away. That was the event that made Jack my favorite golfer, a position he held for 32 years.

Their analysis only counts the players that made the cut. And only 44 players made the cut in 1996.

The fact that Norman choked has no bearing on the analysis.



276	…	Nick Faldo
281	…	Greg Norman
282	…	Phil Mickelson
283	…	Frank Nobilo
284	…	Scott Hoch
284	…	Duffy Waldorf
285	…	Davis Love
285	…	Jeff Maggert
285	…	Corey Pavin
286	…	David Frost
286	…	Scott McCarron
287	…	Ernie Els
287	…	Lee Janzen
287	…	Bob Tway
288	…	Mark Calcavecchia
288	…	Fred Couples
289	…	John Huston
290	…	Paul Azinger
290	…	David Duval
290	…	Tom Lehman
290	…	Mark O'Meara
290	…	Nick Price
291	…	Larry Mize
291	…	Loren Roberts
292	…	Brad Faxon
292	…	Ray Floyd
292	…	Justin Leonard
293	…	Bob Estes
294	…	John Daly
294	…	Jim Furyk
294	…	Jim Gallagher Jr.
294	…	Hale Irwin
294	…	Scott Simpson
294	…	Craig Stadler
294	…	Ian Woosnam
295	…	Fred Funk
295	…	Jay Haas
295	…	Bernhard Langer
296	…	Colin Montgomerie
296	…	Vijay Singh
297	…	Steve Lowery
297	…	Jack Nicklaus
299	…	Seve Ballesteros
302	…	Alexander Cejka
=====		
290.3	…	Mean
5.3	…	Std Deviation
290.32 = Mean of 72 Hole scores 
5.29 = Standard Deviation of 72 Holes scores

(290.32 - 276)/5.29 = 2.70

Whenever Tiger does make an appearance on the PGATour, I hope he says something like “I need Reps”

Hard to see how he can ever top “my glutes are shutting off.” It’s right up there with Mike Tyson saying, after a bad loss, that he planned to retire and just “fade into Bolivia.”

I’ve long maintained that Tiger is the best golfer ever, but I’ve never claimed he’s the smartest. That would be Jack.

Maybe I’m misunderstanding you. How can you say a guy had a dominating performance, if he was six shots back after three rounds?

Numbers don’t say that, people do.

Faldo beat the mean score by 2.7 Standard Deviations.

As you guys have noted, the wacky 1996 Masters exemplifies the limitations of analysis via strict mathematical formula.

I notice on the top 20 list for all majors, the British Open Championship dominates with 10 appearances. I have no theory to explain the tendency, so I’ll write it off to small sample size :slight_smile:

If they were all pre-1980 Opens, it would be easy to explain — very weak fields. For example, the 1962 Open is 11th on the list. It was won by Arnold Palmer, in a year when probably 80 of the top 100 golfers in the world were Americans, but only 4 Americans under 50 years old were in the field against Arnie. So it probably had a far weaker field than most regular PGA events of that time, let alone today.

But they have several post-1980 Opens in the list, too, so I don’t know. I just don’t think it’s a very indicative stat.

Its also noteworthy that the 1977 British Open has both Watson and Nicklaus on the list. Because they distanced themselves from the pack.

The problem when someone roars past the field in the early going is that there are only two possibilities, either he’s never seriously challenged (which is boring), or he collapses and we get a 75-post treatise on how Greg Norman and Jean Van De Velde match up (which is nauseating). Remember the days when Bill Elliott had a 20 car length lead by about lap 10 and the ESPN commentators had to talk about team owners and proposed rule changes and chassis manufacturers for two freaking hours? Same deal here.

I do want to chime in a bit, though, so random stuffs on the big names:

Spieth - Let’s just get this out of the way: this is a well-mannered, classy gentleman who respects the traditions of the game, who also happens to be hotter than molten lead and has his whole future ahead of him. Whatever place his win occupies on any dominance list, you have to concede that he is a SUPER MEGA AWESOME thing for American golf. I’m not sure if you’ve noticed it, but the big names we have are starting to get old, and the new blood is either inconsistent, flawed, or just not that great. I have no idea how far he’s going to go, but I do know for absolute certain that it’s going to be a thrilling ride, and that’s something I haven’t been able to say for any American for a while.

Mickelson - Strong, made the clutch shots he had to, caught a few breaks, just not quite overwhelming enough to do better than 2nd. His postgame interview spoke volumes; he was…gasp…humble, and he didn’t begrudge the champion anything. Look, I know there’s been this or that rap on him, but he’s come so far from the spastic gravelbrain who ranted about how it was so impressive Tiger could win with such crappy equipment (remember that one?), I gotta give him props. He’s one of the good guys now…deal with it.

McIlroy - Once again proving that he’s the real deal and making me very relieved that I will not have to hear any nonsense about a “PGA Tour Game Curse”. I think the relatively tame hype around him has mostly to do with the fact that we’re not used to a dominating Brit. Luke Donald was a flash in the pan, Lee Westwood never panned out, and the less said about Colin flippin’ Montgomerie, the better. That plus Tiger’s raised the bar so much, it’s taking a while for McIlroy’s dominance to really sink in. Barring some catastrophe, however, he’ll continue making an impact and won’t surrender the crown easily.

Woods - This won’t be a popular opinion (“No, Darrell, really??” :slight_smile: ), but I watched him for four rounds, and he did…pretty much as I expected. Struggle a bit early due to rust, put up an okay but not impressive first round, gradually regain his form and confidence, make the cut comfortably, make a bit of a move but never catch fire, and finish somewhere in the middle of the pack. I’m not about to make any predictions about him (I’m no glutton for punishment), but I’d be very surprised if he ever returned to his 2013 form. All those crushing shots have taken a heavy toll (the full extent of which we probably won’t even know until well after he’s retired), and he’s not getting any younger. If you’re a big fan, just keep watching and hoping. If you’re a hater…best move on; this horse may not be dead just yet, but it’s pretty ill.

Just like to throw a question out there, though: Does anyone here actually want him to break Sam Snead’s record of 82 tournament wins? Let’s be honest; in any sport with a wide variety of levels and fields, just “winning a tournament” doesn’t mean a lot in the grand scheme of things. In tennis, journeymen regularly clobber superstars in low-level events because the journeyman needs the win and the superstar is only there to fill a quota. Especially given that Tiger isn’t, y’know, all that popular right now, I could very well see this going the the way of the single-quarter assists record in basketball, an answer to a trivia question. (“How did a short, skinny, balding guy who’s whiter than a radish dipped in cornstarch get to be in NBA Jam?”)

Yeah, I want him to break Snead’s record. I think he is the best golfer of all time and deserves to be recognized as such. Maybe he isn’t popular among the crowd you run in, but he’s incredibly popular. Tournaments he plays in get double the ratings of those where he’s not.

You may think he just did OK in the Masters, but for his first tournament in two and a half months after back surgery it was an incredible performance. People made a big deal about Rory McIlroy not playing for two weeks.

Absolutely. Given his strength of schedule, I consider it much more impressive than getting 18, or even 20, majors.

He did what he had to do to get his card when he was 20, and he played the low-rent Buick Open for several years because he was sponsored by Buick. Other than that, he has pretty much played only the toughest events every year — majors, WGCs, and the strongest regular PGA and Euro Tour events. To have so many wins against the best fields, especially when he plays so few events each year, is incredible.

I don’t know why it hasn’t already been done, but some day, somebody is going to compile all the data from the various pro tours, and figure out what the world rankings would have been for years prior to 1986, and what the strength of field was for the majors before 1986 (I won’t say McCormack’s rankings are a complete joke, but they’re useless for this purpose). I’ll be amazed if Jack’s Memorial Tournament didn’t have a stronger field every year since 1990 than three out of four majors he played in before 1975, even if you assume that golf is the only sport where a good (not great, but good) pro today wouldn’t eat the lunch of a good pro from 50 years ago.

Well, there is the other 2nd place finisher, he’s won one major…

If you read golf forums, the most rabid of Tiger fans already think that he has beat Sam Snead’s record.

You could almost call a grass roots movements to re-write the history books because Sam Snead has team wins in his win total. Its almost as if they are putting a tin foil hats and claiming the PGA Tour conspired to pad Sam Sneads win total from 50-80 years ago because they knew a minority golfer would be challenging his record in the 21st century.

What they don’t realize is that Snead has many unofficial wins from that period that might be deemed to be official if the PGATour attempts to re-write and scrutinize the record book.

IMO, if Woods goes winless for another couple years, this clamoring is going to get more and more traction. And they may no like the results if it ever happens.