it just occured to me that there is a small chance of Obama winning big, and Long Story Short it has to do with a recovering economy, which is like Duh! Thanks for sharing, Captain Obvious.
But specifically I can easily envision at this point, in addition to the economy getting better,
Romney getting nominated despite the majority of Republicans disapproving of him, IOW, this process continuing with the Pubs growing increasingly disenchanted with him as he continues stockpiling delegates, riots in Tampa, etc. Maybe even a splinter party or two.
AND
Obama being able to replay on a loop a clip of Romney inviting voters who think the economy’s getting better to vote for the President. (I think there is such a clip right now, can’t find it). My fantasy is that Romney very soon realizes that he’s probably fucked if the economy improves and issues statements double-downing on previous comments, reiterating that if the economy continues to improve even HE wouldn’t vote for himself, but if doesn’t then you should consider voting for a Pubbie.
By August, IOW, there is a small chance (5%? 10%) that the Republicans will find themselves committed to the one candidate who has shot himself in both feet, shit the bed, screwed the pooch, and pissed into the wind. .
Obama winning this year is no liberal fantasy, it’s just the way to bet. For liberal fantasy, let’s envision how all this could help the Dems win the House of Representatives, and increase their Senate majority, giving Obama a free hand for at least the next two years.
Obama wins (duh). Due to the extreme outbreak of craziness and incompetence, both the Republican Party and the Tea Party start their slow slide into historical footnote-land (sorry, Lincoln). Meanwhile, a new party arises that is actually (gasp) left of center. Hungry for change, Americans embrace it and join the rest of the first world in issues such as health care. Reasonable and intelligent public discourse ensues and the so-called Defense of Marriage Act and so-called Patriot Act are repealed. The TSA is disbanded.
The GoP is going to rally around the nominee, which is going to be Romney. That’s what they do. Better a Republican they are not wild about than a Dem. Obama might win, but it’s going to be a tight race.
Which Romney do you think they will nominate? The moderate, a man carved from frozen mayonnaise? Or the “severe conservative”, just to the left of Calvin Coolidge? I’ve seen six or seven different Romney’s in as many weeks.
No matter what? This is just boilerplate GOP glurge, and the world’s safest prediction. (The 2nd safest? That the GOP will win a squeaker.) My point is that Romney’s on the verge of locking up a nomination that’s very unpopular with many GOP voters, and he’s increasingly campaigning on a single issue–the economy–that has a possibility of blowing up in his face. if BOTH of those plausible events happen to an extreme degree, which I’d give a small chance of happening, then we’re looking at a blowout.
Oakminister’s response (“Not going to happen”) is one I endorse if I’m a betting man, but give me attractive odds, and I’ll bet on an Obama runaway, just because I can see a plausible path for it.
I think Obama will probably win, but I’m with Oakminster, it’s going to be tight no matter what. Not many Republicans seem to like Romney, but in the end, they will vote for him because to them, as irrational as it seems (and is), any Republican is better than Obama, even the members of the clown brigade running this time, regardless of Obama’s accomplishments, regardless of whatever good things happen on his watch.
There have been polls suggesting a large % of Republicans are considering voting for Obama. It might not be so tight as Oakminster suggests. Although I agree with him the that GOP base has shown reliability in the past for rallying around their candidate when push comes to shove, this does indeed nonetheless mean the GOP has something to worry about. The current crop of GOP candidates seem to be losing support from swing voters in proportion to their efforts to try and galvanize the GOP base.
In the end, I think Romney will be the nominee, but that he will have the most trouble herding the cats of GOP votes of anyone since H.W. Bush in 1992. I think there are quite a few evangelical, fundamentalist Christians who simply will refuse to vote for a Mormon, and quite a few conservatives who will neither trust Romney nor vote for him; these groups are likely to vote for a third party in significant numbers. Luckily for him, it doesn’t appear at this time that he will have any serious opposition from a third-party candidate, such as Ross Perot in 1992. So it could be a tight race, as Oakminster says. But not election year 2000 tight. If Romney loses even 5% of his likely voters to third-party candidates or people just not voting, he will lose big in the electoral college, even if the overall % of the popular vote seems relatively close.
I will meet a talking cat who will tell me that I am the reincarnated soul of the Moon Queen. She (the cat) will then lead me to where the Cosmic Moon Scepter is. Picking it up I am magically transformed from a 50 yr old, morbidly obese white gay guy, into a 50 yr old, morbidly obese white gay guy in a shockingly short skirt with ridiculously long and useless pig tails. (30 minutes later after the transformation dance is finished) I will then raise the Cosmic Moon Scepter over my head while shouting “COSMIC MOON POWER ACTIVATE!” releasing a blast of prismatic energy that will signal for the Sistersto come forth. We will then form the TyeDye Council (we stand between the rainbow and the darkness) and rule the world as benevolent dictators.
With my Tiara firmly in place I will (in alphabetic order):
[ul]
[li]Ban the Death Penalty[/li][li]Ban the Private Ownership of Any And All Religious Texts[/li][li]Hi Opal![/li][li]Ban the Private Ownership of Guns[/li][li]Build an Epic Castle On Top Of Mt Davidson[/li][li]Create a new agency to institute ethical & humane practices for food and research animals[/li][li]Disband the TSA[/li][li]Force PETA to host the annual Bacon Festival twice a year[/li][li]Guarantee Reproductive Rights for Everyone[/li][li]Institute A Global Free Education Up To 2 Years Of College (Associate Degree In The U.S.)[/li][li]Institute a Global Intelligent & Logical Space Program[/li][li]Institute a Global Living Wage[/li][li]Institute a Global Peace Corp like Program[/li][li]Institute a Global Universal Health Care System[/li][li]Make San Francisco the World Capitol (Fuck New York and London:p)[/li][li]Persecute ALL Christians, who complain they are being persecuted, making their fantasy real[/li][li]Promote vegetarianism[/li][li]Redistribute All Wealth and Resources in an Intelligent & Logical Manner [/li][li]Repel DOMA, Patriot Act and any other Stupid Act (Using MY Definition of Stupid)[/li][li]Replace All Places of Worship with a Temple to Herobrine[/li][/ul]
I could go on, but this is getting a bit long. I think you get the idea that if I ever find the Cosmic Moon Scepter you are all toast.
Also I realize that this isn’t so much a plausible liberal fantasy as it is a sick, twisted, dangerously obsessive dark fantasy, but I needed a hobby.
Good thing Obama isn’t on record as saying that if the economy isn’t turned around in his first term, then he’s going to be a one term president. Because then Romney would, you know, have something to play in an endless loop, too.
Is that where you, like, give yourself a daily intravenous injection of salt water?