Please explain Climategate.

Forget Ellsberg himself; the better analogy is to the Pentagon Papers themselves. Papers such as the New York Times and the Washington Post published massive excerpts of the Papers. 4,100 pages of the Papers were published in the Congressional Record, and that portion of the Papers was published in book form, which IIRC hit the bestseller lists.

Very different from what’s happening here, with the argument for the ‘scandal’ largely consisting of short (and potentially cherry-picked) quotes published in context provided by persons with motivation to spin them in a particular direction.

Couldn’t have said it better myself.

Allow me to bring some additional reality into the discussion on the impacts of Climategate in the coal and utility industry.

The trade mailing lists, blogs, and print magazines have been absolutely on fire since this story broke, and even I’ve been surprised by the venom which has been poured on backers of AGW theory. The first day the story broke I was receiving about 1 mail every half hour from someone in the industry saying in effect “OMFG have you seen this??? It’s true, they made it all up!”

Here, allow me to recap my week:

  • In a renewable energy web-conference I was presenting in on Monday nearly all the questions from the audience were along the lines of “shouldn’t we wait and see, since it’s proven AGW folks have been juggling the numbers to make a trillion-dollar transfer payment to Al Gore supporters?”, or words to that effect. Also Monday, a conference call I had with a major coal importer devolved into 15 minutes of actual business, and 45 minutes of people saying how “no one believes the global warming folks any more…they can make up whatever numbers they want and get away with it scot-free. Even Obama is backing down.”

  • In a Tuesday conference call with a large power plant (who are evaluating carbon reduction schemes) they brought up the ClimateGate scandal as a major topic item, and started to discuss in earnest whether they should cancel the entire project based on it. I also had a very late conference call with engineers at a European coal plant, who said in effect “…it’s a tremendous embarrassment…it calls into question everything we’re doing looking at this biomass project. The public is already skeptical and now we have scientists lying…this is going to set back our biomass (renewable energy) plans by a fiscal year.”

  • Wednesday I received a Photoshopped picture from a VP of a major Eastern utility which showed Harry Truman holding up a newspaper, which said “Global Warming is Coming!” For those not in the US for whom this reference is mysterious, I give you this: Dewey Defeats Truman - Wikipedia It was accompanied by commentary which essentially said “this doesn’t change anything we’re planning, but it sure makes me feel like we’re all a bunch of chumps.”

  • Thursday I was told that a proposal I had to do a carbon reduction study has been “put on hold…the investors are worried about fallout from this whole climate fraud thing. If we spend (the money) to do this study, they’re going to ask us why, when it looks more and more like it’s a fake.”

Friday was, mercifully, ClimateGate-free.

To what extent is this a real problem? Pretty damn low. My impression is mostly that folks are using it as a convenient excuse to delay and/or do nothing. Which of course sucks, since I make a lot of money now off of telling people how not to burn coal. Nonetheless, this is a real, serious blow from a PR standpoint, and we’re going to be hearing about it for years, if not decades, to come.

Lets take a worst, worstest possible case scenario. Lets pretend that we find out tomorrow that Darwin made it all up. (Which he did, sorta, since he was theorizing more than observing, but lets just set that aside because it screws up my premise…)

So what? Wallace came up with very much the same ideas independently, tons upon tons of research has confirmed the theory of evolution. As a practical reality, it would lower our estimation of Darwin personally, but the theory would be supported by other research to such an extent, it wouldn’t matter.

Now, of course, anti-evolution knuckle-walkers would have a field day, insisting that this would erase the entire theory of evolution at one blow. Wouldn’t be true, wouldn’t stop them.

If all of the research on global warming were based on these earlier investigations, that is, if the data of further investigation rested upon a presumption that the Anglia data was solid, then the pyramid is inverted, the structure of the pyramid rests on its weakest point, the apex, the point. And that could only be important if no other research, conducted independently, came to similar conclusions.

Ideally, we like to pretend that all scientists are free of any preconceptions and bias, that no scientist ever sets out to disprove a colleagues favorite theory. We also like to pretend that our children depend on our advice and wisdom to make major decisions, but that isn’t true either. We know as a fact of human nature that some of the people who ended up delivering research that supported AGW probably started out to disprove it, esp. when we consider that it wasn’t all that popular a notion.

And of course, funding. If you have established yourself early on as a skeptical observer as regards AGW, and propose a research program to confirm or repudiate, you are more likely to a friendly reception with such industry supported foundations that provide grants for the ah, furtherance of science. Wernstrom, of course, sets out to examine Farnsworth’s thesis without any prejudice or preconceptions. Because he is a scientist, and scientists are quite above such petty motivations. That his research is financed by Mom’s Industries (as Mom’s Industries likes to mention on its PBS ads…) is of no consequence, purely coincidental. (This is one reason why scientists benefit from a liberal arts background, like theater, and pantomime. If you can do “trapped in a glass box” and “walking against the wind”, “keeping a straight face” is a cinch…)

We may therefore be assured that some of the research that supports AGW didn’t really start out that way. And in the interests of clear objectivity, such new and groundbreaking research would in no way depend on the previous research, since it would not take such results as a “given”. It is highly likely that a lot of later research, but still comparatively early, found confirmation for AGW to the chagrin and consternation of its principal investigators and funders. Many great advances in scientific theory are as much “Oops!” as “Eureka!”.

Frankly, I think that research that is biased against a theory but results in confirmation if probably more valuable and useful that that which originated in the pristine purity of scientific curiosity. If you investigate something and find that the results run directly counter to your preconceptions, you have learned something very important indeed!

AGW was not a popular thesis when first proposed, and I wouldn’t be that surprised to see “fudging”, conscious or no, in those early results, its really hard to report “yeah, I took a metric buttload of your money and found diddly-squat…”.

But at least some of the research that followed was inspired to refute AGW, academic pretensions of purity notwithstanding. The consensus that has formed around AGW was not willingly embraced by eager partisan Gorebots. At least some of what is now considered supporting research was funded by organizations fervently wishing for, and probably already convinced of, solid refutation. At least some of that research was conducted and paid for by people who pretty much “knew” what they were going to find, but didn’t.

In an unrelated example, considerable money was spent to pursue the theory that lung cancer was caused by a mutagenic virus, and cigarette smoking had little if anything to do with it. Turns out its crap, but we did find out that there are viruses than can cause cancer, just not that one. The frontiers of science expand, just not to the benefit of the funders.

To sum up, then: even if we prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that these “hockey stick” theorists were lying scumbags operating with the connivance of the Gore/Soros/ACORN juggernaut…it hardly matters.

(Of course, this is probably why Aleuts no longer abandon their elderly on ice floes, they can’t find one without a polar bear jealously guarding it, and nobody wants to watch Grandmamma getting shredded…)

Climate change is a cyclical thing. There’s no real urgency to upturn our entire way of life based on the odd bush fire or tsunami.

The issue here is carbon trading (ie. carbon credits) that grants the means by which fossil fuel whoring multinationals can hedge themselves against the inevitable costs of modernizing energy production by hording then divvying out credits to companies that cannot afford the upheaval to their industry.

It’s all about money and power. Same shit, different dupe.