How possible is it to game point spreads, specifically with respect to the average margins of victory that football games typically see?
An illustration: say I note that a team, say the Smeagols, are underdogs to the Dwarves by 7 1/2 points. I know that, because of how many points touchdowns are worth, that a 7 point win is (say) 2 times as likely as an 8 point win, so I bet on the Smeagols. How much of an edge would that give me? Or do other factors pretty much make such considerations negligible?