In five card draw I have:
Ace spades
King hearts
Jack hearts
ten hearts
three spades
Should I drop the two spades and shoot for a flush or
should I drop the three of spades and shoot for a straight?
You have a 4/47=8.5% chance of getting a queen for the straight and a (11/47)(10/46)(9/45)=1.0% chance of catching the spades.
Shoot for that straight.
Der I am an idiot ignore my previous post.
I will.
If it helps, I did shoot for the straight and actually caught the queen… I just don’t know if that was the right move or not.
I’ll come back and redeem myself. I was on the right track before but read the proble m wrong. The odds for the Queen are correct but to catch two hearts you need (10/47)*(9/46)=4.2%.
are you sure? doesn’t that only work if i’m playing against zero other players?
No.
Provided you haven’t seen any cards except the ones in your hand, it doesn’t matter how many people you are playing against. You know whazt 5 cards are, and the next card in the deck could be any one of the remaining 47.
ah, gotcha.
thanks
These odds are exactly right for getting the two big hands.
In the interest of completeness, there’s probably a slightly better chance to make a pair if you take 2 cards.
Hmmm. Here’s my seat-of-the-pants way of looking at this:
There’s a 1/13 (7.7%) chance of getting a particular rank.
There’s a 1/4 (25%) chance of getting a particular suit, and 1/4x1/4, or 1/16 (6.3%) chance of getting two of a particular suit.
So between going for the flush or the straight in this instance, you’re slightly more likely to get the the straight.
That depends on how much money was in the pot.
yeah, the third and probably better option was folding
Another factor here is that one of your spades is your high card. If it comes down to no-pairs, or your pair vs. someone else’s, that ace would be nice to have. But I’m not sure how much weight that carries, since you also have a king.
The first part is correct because you haven’t seen any queens.
The second isn’t, because three hearts are already out of the deck. treis was correct with this formula: (10/47)*(9/46)=4.2%, which accounts for the fact there are 10 hearts left until you catch a fourth, and then there are only 9 left.
:smack:
Argh. There’s only 47 cards left so it’s actually 4/47, again as posted by treis.
And now I see that you were intentionally posting “a seat of the pants quick and dirty” solution, nothing exact.
Again depends on how much money was in the pot, the strength of the players he was against, what position he’s in, etc. If there’s a decent sized pot and it doesn’t cost him a lot to play then calling with what amounts to a nothing hand might be the right play. He could catch his straight, or pair up, or hold the A-high which might be good, or he could run a bluff and take down the pot.