http://www.policyanalysismarket.org/pam_concept.htm
I don’t really have a clever rant in me. All I can say is that this is a government-backed program. How stupid can they get?
I don’t get it.
It’s sort of like booking bets among the guys at work on what sort of calamities and tragedies might in the future befall members of someone’s family.
I can see the point of it: if the Pentagon suddenly sees a spike in futures prices for “RCA Dome bombed during the August 2 game,” they can tell the local cops, get some extra security there during the game, and hopefully prevent the deaths of thousands of people. It’s morbidly ingenious, I think.
On the other hand, the NYT points out that terrorists could purchase shares in “Dean Dome bombed during August 9 game,” misleading the government and directing resources away from the real attack. This futures market would differ from others inasmuch as there aren’t normally well-funded groups with a vested interest in skewing the market’s predictions.
In any case, genius or not, it’s incredibly boneheaded not to realize what a public-relations nightmare this would be. And the NYT is saying the the plan has just been abandoned.
Daniel
Ah, has it?
I started this thread before I had seen the discussion in GD. Having read that, I don’t know that I’m quite as outraged–I can kinda see the basic idea–but yeah, it is a PR nightmare.
I wondered whether your option would still pay off if you bid on “RCA Dome bombed during the August 2 game”, and the government uses the price spike to avert a bombing.