You’re right, this doesn’t constitute anything like a scientific survey. My problem with the numbers we’ve getting from economists are, as I noted in the OP, that they tend to be inaccurate in their own ways, and that they tend to be subject to manipulation for political purposes when they come from government sources, and very often when they come from private sources as well (can anyone say, “Heritage Foundation?”)
I personally think there’s a LOT of difference from the economic reality on the ground and the vision of economic reality that shows up on the media.
Historically, ‘full employment’ has been determined to be around 5% in the U.S. During the tech bubble, economists re-evaluated it and lowered that value to about 4.5%. It’s currently hovering around 6%. Which is a very good rate. Canada, for example, is about 7.8%, with a similar economic structure (and using the same yardsticks).
Yes, and if I had ANY faith in those numbers I would feel that you have a point.
**Here in Edmonton, the economy is great. In fact, the TD bank recently posted an economic study which said that if the Edmonton-Calgary corridor were a country, it would have the strongest economy in the world, with the highest per-capita growth and income. So we’ve got nothing to complain about. **
[/QUOTE]
Well, it’s good to hear that things are working out well somewhere.
I’m living paycheck to paycheck. No raise this year. On the up side, I have a job, we were given extra days off this year to make up for the lack of raise, and my rent isn’t going up. My extended family has had it rough with lay-off’s, trouble finding new jobs, and only contract work available. My friends seem to be doing okay financially. Better than me anyways.
So you have more faith in a self-selecting poll on an internet message board than the information professional economists come up with? What would it take to convince you? Economic and unemployment figures that confirm your preconceived notions?
I’m personally doing okay (engineering), but several friends & relatives have taken up to 25% pay cuts over the last two years. Careers that seem to be having problems (within the sample set of people who know groo) are in advertising and tech startups. (Yes, there are still some of them struggling along).
I know I should count myself lucky, but my group is now working themselves (ourselves?) to death to make up for those who’ve been downsized. The running joke is that no one knows what day of the week it is, because it just doesn’t matter.
I am doing great. I recently got a new job and intentionally took a pay cut (admittedly a small one) to get out of the tech consulting gig.
My friends are all doing OK. They all have jobs and seem to be able to pay the bills.
I am sorry to hear people are having so much trouble. I guess the lesson I’ll take from this thread is to save money when you have the chance and stay away from debt.
It would take economic data that isn’t massaged and spun for political purposes. I strongly suspect all numbers I see in the media. I think it’s dumb not to.
Anecdotal evidence at least has a certain concreteness and specificity to it that the abstract numbers that economists and pundits play with lack.
Well, sure. You should always look at everything presented to you with a critical eye. But I fail to see how this is “better” than abstract numbers if you are trying to get a handle on how things actually are. So you’ve got 40 hard luck stories. Big deal. I could find 40 hard luck stories during the 90s boom if I wanted to.
Not that I think this thread is stupid. It’s always interesting to see what’s going on with other folks - I just think it gives even less insight to what’s actually going on than abstract numbers.
Doing well. Picked up a 16+% pay raise this year, and my wife and I are building a new home. One car is paid for, one car is being paid for, and we can still manage twice-yearly trips to the tropics for vacation (it helps, of course, that said tropics are the Dominican Republic, where my in-laws LIVE, and where we stay free.)
Amongst my friends, everyone’s employed, and generally doing fine. One exception is a pal that lives paycheck to paycheck and is constantly struggling – but I note, wryly, that he’s “struggling” to keep up with finance charges on his 26-foot cabin cruiser and his two leased cars, both of them 2002 models, so I am less than sympathetic.
Doing ok. Have never had a period of less than full time employment nor have I been laid off (all job switches were initiated by me) in the last 10 years. Living paycheck to paycheck essentially while trying to pay down some student loans and credit card debt. One vehicle brand new, one vehicle 5 years old and nearly paid off. Received a Christmas bonus every year I’ve worked here (started in Feb 2000). Essentially any financial strain I’m experiencing is due to unwise spending habits and not to economic unstability.
Things are OK with us. I started a new job a little over two months ago, and with the new job came a nice (10%+) increase. Glad I got out of telecom when I did. I’m not working in my degree field (TV, radio and film) but that is by choice - didn’t want to sell my soul for any job. Since I got out of college in 1996, I have worked almost constantly, except for vacations.
My husband is looking for a new job, but he is not in danger of losing the one he currently has (at least, not as far as we know). He is a chemical engineer, and from what I understand from other engineering friends, this is a tough time to be looking for that kind of work in this area. Still, it is discouraging to him that those new engineering grads who have found jobs are (on average) making more $$ with no experience than he is with 5+ years.
So, it could be worse. We never really felt the “rush” when the economy was way up back in 2000, but at the same time we haven’t been hurt as much as others now that things are in a downturn. Our only major complaint is that housing prices are really high where we are, but now that interest rates are creeping back up, prices are falling, so our hesitation may turn out to work for us.
I’m in Canada (southwestern Ontario) and it seems to be hit and miss. My SO was out of work for 6 months and took a $15K pay cut to get working again about 4 months ago. Since then, he’s gotten a $5K raise (negotiated when he started) and potentially another raise at the end of the month.
In Guelph, housing is booming, total seller’s market, which usually means good economy, but we also got hit hard with SARS and Mad Cow.
We have friends who just bought a house, have a new baby, and both are facing unemployment at the end of the month, and another buddy who is planning on buying a house and getting married in the next year and a half because they are doing so well.
So, we are doing okay, we have friends who are doing great, and friends who are in severe financial trouble. Seems to be about normal!
I was laid off a little over two years ago. I got another job after a few months, but I had to move to a different part of the country (not my preferred part) for it. A little while after I had started work, this company who was revered for NEVER laying people off let a whole bunch of people in our group go (not me, though whew). A friend who was laid off at the same time as me had gotten another job, but recently got laid off again. My old roommate had to pick up a second job as a personal trainer because his stockbroker career was in the dumper. A girl I just met in the same line of work as I has been unemployed for 9 months. An old friend of mine who is trying to break into my line of business has not been able to get a foothold and is near giving up.
My personal experience has been positive, but I feel like I’m the exception and feel extremely lucky. I have never known so many people out of work. I don’t ever remember times being so bad, but I’m only 32 and wasn’t around during the 1930’s.
I’ve been in the work force since 1975, so I’ve seen a few recessions along the way.
Sam Stone, while I disagree with your politics, I agree with you that the classic economic indicators seem to point to a nice recovery. I also recognize that employment is a trailing indicator and may take a while to catch up.
Having said that however, I have to say that I have never before known so many people who are out of a job (in a wide variety of industries). In addition, every employer I’ve had since 1975 is currently doing poorly. Over the past three years they all have had layoffs combined with wage freezes. Some of the jobs have been lost to offshore workers, which continues to strike fear into the hearts and minds of the front-line IT worker.
My current company is barely keeping its head above water. We’ve managed to stay afloat through expense controls only. The companies who would normally purchase our products are not buying. It’s not that they’re buying our competitor’s products. They’re making a “no-decision decision”.
Sure, the sample size is small and unscientific. Yet the “feelings” of the people I talk to are unprecedented.
Therefore, my personal and professional anecdotal evidence points to an economy that remains bed-ridden. I fear that this may be a “jobless recovery”. The patient may get out of bed at some point, but certainly won’t be running any races anytime soon.
Well, a bit less than 2 years ago, I was laid off from my job in Houston, which I’ll note is where Ringo and Abby still are. I have many friends that lost their jobs in 2001-2002 in Houston, not all of which have found work in the meantime. (None, I’ll note, in the oil industry, which I gather is what Ringo’s field is.)
Here in southern NH, I know several families that are out of work, in telecom and computer industries. (One has started a new career as a teacher - lower pay, but at least he’s going to have a job.) The glut in house sales last year allowed us to buy a house up here (the house market is normally far more expensive up here than where I left). My new company (in telecom, oddly enough), in northern MA, had layoffs this past year (kind of nerve-wracking for a new employee), but is expecting to do better this coming year.
Just an observation that seems to fit in with what’s been revealed in this thread so far. 1999 was a year that had the dot.coms sizzling, and paper millionaires were all around. U.S. economic growth continued to astound oserver’s (although I’m not sure how much of it was real in light of the billions of fictional dollars being booked by the likes of WorldCom).
And that year was the absolute rock bottom worst of my 23 years in oil and gas. The rest of the country seemed to be stuck on full-tilt eco-boogie, and we were having a bloodbath. Just seemed worth mentioning.
DanielWithrow and I are getting by. We’re both employed and can pay the bills. We’re considering buying a house. Of course, since we both work in non-profits, we don’t make big money even in the best of times.
Around here, it’s very easy to find a job, providing you’re willing to wait tables, tear tickets, or pamper tourists. The problem is that tourist industry jobs tend to be low-paying and without benefits. However, IMO, the lack of non-tourist-based work, is a perennial flaw with our local economy, rather than the fault of the national economy.
And, since people are feeling worried about the economy, local tourism numbers are down this year. Hopefully, this won’t have a big impact on the job situation.
I think one of the reasons for the perception of a lousy economy is that people are comparing it to the recent past, when it was unsustainably strong.
Specifically, those people here who graduated in the early-mid 90’s moved into the work force at a time when it was raining money. A six month tech diploma could get you a 50K job in IT. Labor shortages all over the place were allowing people to pick and choose where they wanted to work. Every window seemed to have a ‘help wanted’ sign in it. The newspaper was full of stories of young millionaires.
Today, things are MUCH tougher, when compared to that gold standard. But when compared to historical levels, it’s actually pretty good, and getting better.
I think the present recession is disproportionately affecting folks in the middle class. Most recessions hit the lower income first, hardest andl longest, but it isn’t happening that way this time. For the middle class, I think this is about the worst recession since the oil-shock recession of the early 70s.