Just 2 simple questions - when will we have reliable results for:
A. Who won the US Presidency?
B. Which party controls the Senate?
Please answer hour and date for each of A and B.
I’ll go first:
A. Wed 11/4 8 a.m.
B. Fri 11/6 10 a.m.
No need to debate in this thread what we consider “reliable results.”
Eastern time zone.
Both are guesses:
A. Tues 11:30 PM ET
B. Wed 7 PM ET
What I hope:
A. Nov 4 1:30 am
B Nov 4 2:00 pm
What I fear
A. Jan 20, 2021 12:00
B. Jan 3, 2021 12:00
We’ll know both by midnight on Tuesday.
President: We’ll know earlier, but it’ll officially be called when west coast polls close, 11:00 pm
Senate: Maybe a touch more ambiguity here, but whenever the later of Arizona and Colorado polls close. I think that’s 10:00 pm.
I’m pretty sure this is not true.
Did you mean “certain television networks will say certain things”?
Or perhaps “one or the other candidates will concede”?
“Official calling” occurs on December 13, IIRC.
Yes, I meant by the media. Is there really some confusion about what “officially called” would mean in this context?
What about AK (an hour behind the West Coast) and HI (an hour behind AK)? Or is the assumption that they won’t have any effect on the results in the other 48?
They have very few EVs, and if needed to push either candidate over the top, I think we’d reasonably assume that AK will go Trump and HI Biden. The Pacific Time Zone is pretty well definitive, too (other than NV), but there’s a lot of EVs there, so no one’s going to call it before their polls close (unless Biden is having a very good night.)
Thank you.
Traditionally, the election ends when one candidate concedes to the other. This year, I think the election will go past New Years.
Sorry. If it weren’t for all the horrendous misinformation now being peddled by haters of democracy, I wouldn’t feel so obligated to ask for clarity.
Well, the Electoral College meets on Dec 14, and must transmit their votes to the Senate by Dec 23, so that’s not going to happen. Unless they fail to generate a majority for one candidate, that is.
By the networks: 11:00 pm EST 11/3 for president
12:00 pm EST for the Senate
Presidential loser conceding: A month from never
I think that is possible, I would not be surprised if this is a negotiated election like 1876.
Sure, it’s definitely possible. Do you consider it likely? It that actually your prediction?
One or both of the Georgia senate races will go to a January 5, 2021 runoff if no candidate gets 50% on November 3rd,so there is a real possibility that the senate won’t be fully decided until early next year.
Good questions. It’s all about if, if, if, if…
If it’s close:
A) Friday 9:00 AM
B) Thursday night
If it’s a landslide:
A) Wednesday, Midnight
B) Wednesday afternoon
Oh, interesting.
I’m hopeful that we will know the presidential outcome by late Tuesday evening, but fearful that we won’t know until mid December. I guess if I have to pick a prediction, I’ll go with late Tuesday. Most states can count their early ballots, there are only a couple that have nutty rules that are going to delay their count. Hopefully, those few don’t make or break the election.
Hmm, here are a few data points from an article in the Economist:
Arizona, Florida, NC, and Texas are all expected to count their votes quickly – they start processing early ballots before elections day.
But Texas accepts ballots that are postmarked Nov 3 and received Nov 4, and NC accepts slow mail through Nov 12, so if it’s close, we’ll need to wait. FL is expected to have results election night, unless it’s very close.
Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin forbid processing beforehand, and may be very slow to report results. And PA accepts ballot through Nov 6.
The states are going to be reporting votes in different orders, too. So, Arizona, Ohio and NC will likely report their early ballots before their day-of ballots, whereas Wisconsin will report the in-person ballots first. (as will Pennsylvania and Michigan)