Simon Rosenberg is shaking the pom-poms again, getting ready to drop an article specifically about the unreliability of polling-numbers aggregation. Today’s teaser is not about the 2024 presidential election, but looks back at the 2022 U.S. senate polling:
Be Careful of Real Clear Politics and Polling Averages - In the coming days I’m going to write about what I think is questionable utility of polling averages. To whet your appetite a bit, let’s revisit Real Clear Politics last Senate map from 2022 (below). These predicted results were based on RCP’s polling averages in each state. As we all know Republicans didn’t get to 54 seats in the Senate. They got to 49. What went wrong? More soon.
