CNBC has the first swing state polls in a while so it’s a good time to examine state polling and the implied electoral college map.
The poll has Biden up 7 points nationally but the swing states aren’t nearly as comfortable.
If we give the Wisconsin tie to Trump, and allot the other states by the lead in this poll and 2016 results I think that would imply this map with Biden up by 292-246. However it would be a precarious lead based on 1-2 points in Michigan and North Carolina.
Biden is more comfortable based on the full RCP swing-state polling but still not nearly as comfortable as his national lead of 8 points.
Wisconsin Biden +2
Florida Biden +3.4
Michigan Biden +4.2
PA Biden +4
NC Trump +0.6
Arizona Biden +2.5
If we take the states where Biden is up by 3 and the Hillary states that would be 297 but many of these polls are outdated which is why that CNBC poll is a bit worrying.
Overall Biden has the edge but it looks like the electoral college is going to be close. We should get more polls fairly soon and then we will have our first clear picture of the race before the final months.