As I’ve done in past elections, here are the results of my calculations for predicting the winner of the 2020 US presidential election
The predictions are more bullish for Biden compared to the predictions from 538, although in recent days 538 has also been increasing its probability for Biden. I believe today Nate Silver mentioned that their “now cast” for Biden is around 95%
Compared to previous years, the predictions for 2020 are remarkably stable over time. Perhaps because people know both candidates very well, the political environment is polarized, and people are set in their decisions. It would take a huge event to move things by the same amounts we saw in previous elections.
While Hillary’s probabilities got quite high around mid-October (roughly on par with Biden’s current numbers), her graph was much less stable and prone to move with different news coming out (e.g. FBI opening an investigation into her). Biden’s numbers remain quite stable since at least July. So, it would take a huge “October surprise” to move Biden’s numbers. Given that 2020 has been a crazy year, we can’t rule anything out of course.