Predictions for the 2020 US Presidential Election

As I’ve done in past elections, here are the results of my calculations for predicting the winner of the 2020 US presidential election

Some points:

  • The predictions are more bullish for Biden compared to the predictions from 538, although in recent days 538 has also been increasing its probability for Biden. I believe today Nate Silver mentioned that their “now cast” for Biden is around 95%

  • Compared to previous years, the predictions for 2020 are remarkably stable over time. Perhaps because people know both candidates very well, the political environment is polarized, and people are set in their decisions. It would take a huge event to move things by the same amounts we saw in previous elections.

  • While Hillary’s probabilities got quite high around mid-October (roughly on par with Biden’s current numbers), her graph was much less stable and prone to move with different news coming out (e.g. FBI opening an investigation into her). Biden’s numbers remain quite stable since at least July. So, it would take a huge “October surprise” to move Biden’s numbers. Given that 2020 has been a crazy year, we can’t rule anything out of course.

Comments/feedback welcome!

I have a bet with a friend (the wager is a bag of Cheetos). I say tRump will get re elected. I will be very happy to lose that bet and will buy her the biggest bag of Cheetos known to mankind.

Mike Pompeo claims he has Ms Clinton’s infamous emails and plans to make them public before the election.

Therefore, I predict that Ms Clinton will drop out of the race.

(Note that he says the was classified information that never should have been on the server, so obviously it has to be made public.)

Look, there were good reasons to classify those grocery lists until now.

My prediction:

Biden will fall just barely short of 400 electoral votes.

Democrats will get a 54-46 Senate majority.

There’s an election?

Just out of curiosity, when did you make that bet? What others would think of it would depend greatly on that!

I made the bet at least 6 months ago. The pendulum is now swinging towards Biden. And for what’s worth, I plan on pulling the Democratic lever.

Looks like the Taliban has endorsed Trump in 2020:

I thought he already had the Proud Boys endorsement?


Lol :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye: I’m glad I’m not the only person who sees the Proud Boys, KKK, neo-Nazis, and so on as the white people version of the Taliban and al Qaeda.

I wonder why we’re not hearing more about North Carolina as a swing state. 538 has it now at 63% likely Biden, trending upward.
It’s obviously a must-win for Trump, and would be a nice pickup for Biden (hey, he did it as VP in ‘08).
There has been some media focus on Cunningham’s crucial Senate race (and his stupid sexting), but I would have expected more attention from Trump and possibly Biden. Maybe either or both are planning a visit soon? (True, “visits” can be complicated these days).
It just seems we hear a lot more about Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, and even Texas. (I think Joe should visit Arizona, though. And one more visit to Wisconsin couldn’t hurt.)

I did find this Washington Post article from Sept. 22, mainly about how Trumpists have been knocking on a lot of doors in NC (and elsewhere):

Both methods annoy me and turn me off, but I think phone calls annoy me a little more than door to door, though it certainly seems the smarter way to do it this year. With door to door pushing I can give people an earful right back, which I can’t always do with the phone, so it bothers me less.
I’ve already voted - in person absentee at city hall - and yes, I voted Biden. I’m so sick of this current white house that I actually voted solid democrat except one local office that had only a republican running, but she’s done a good job. I’m a swing voter so my ballots tend to be peppered all over the board, but this time no.

Here in NC Dems just put a flier on my door that lists all the Dems. They did not knock.

Agent Orange and his minions have been to NC plenty. Joe Biden has been here at least once, as have Jill Biden and Kamala Harris. My mailbox has been inundated with campaign junk mail, which has mostly been scaremongering stuff from the GOP - a lot of it in support of Tillis for Senate. Lots of TV ads too, though I always fast forward through those so I don’t have a good idea of who has been doing more.

This thread should get the Guinness World Record for the most off-topic set of responses to an OP in the SDMB’s history

I don’t think anybody wants to go on record with a prediction. We’ve been hurt before.

Not even close — but point taken. I apologize for posting in this thread about campaign strategies in North Carolina. I think I meant to post on another thread (but I appreciate the responses in this one).

A prediction? Fine. Biden will win the big three (PA,WI, and Mi) pretty handily — and therefore the election. He’ll win Florida, but just barely (though no need for a recount), and he’ll lose North Carolina, also just barely. He’ll win either Ohio or Iowa, but not both.

I still haven’t decided about Georgia. I see energy and momentum there, but that last three percent is voters to convince is a big hill to climb. I’m leaning toward his NOT winning it, but I won’t be too surprised if he DOES win it.

I also think he might lose Arizona.

Happy now? :wink: