Likely because it’s not one of the “blue wall” states that Biden needs to pick up, nor does NC going blue this election represent anything historic, since Obama won it in '08. For Biden, getting NC is just going to distinguish between a good night and a great night.
My prediction? I’m in a pessimistic mood today. My prediction is that Biden will win WI and MI. PA will be the tipping point state, but will not be called for some time after election night. There will probably be Republican shenanigans there around the counting of mail in ballots. Same with Florida and Georgia. Biden will probably win AZ, but that won’t matter if he loses PA. So it will all come down to how much cheating the Republicans commit in PA.
The bright spot in Pennsylvania, which also fills me with the most concern, is that heavily populated and mostly Democratic suburban counties are ramping up the manpower to count the huge number of mail in votes in time for the state’s deadline, which is pretty early, Nov. 11 iirc. Those election officials have promised 24/7 work to get them all on the books.
If the legislature decides to fuck things all up and end the counting even earlier, and then it turns out that Biden won by several hundred thousand votes, then Republican credibility is shot for years. What worries me is that they don’t care about that if they discover that cheating wins.
This all sorta emphasizes that gerrymandering, bad for congressional districts, is even worse at the state legislature levels. Wisconsin and North Carolina also have decks stacked pretty badly against Democrats.
I predict an escalation of dirty tricks
True.
There is a not unrealistic possiblity that NC will have a Dem governor and two Dem Senators by November 2022.
The makeup of the state legislature and congresspeople is, however, a testament to skillful gerrymandering.
La la
Wrong thread. Sorry.
I think Biden wins with 280 EVs or maybe slightly more than that .
I’m too scared to believe any predictions.
I predict there will be much shouting, arguing, probably some fisticuffs and possibly some hostile gunfire in the aftermath of whatever happens.
I predict that even if Agent Orange loses, he’s going to want to continue his rallies. He might even try to attempt a ‘comeback’ for 2024. I really hope I am wrong.
This isn’t my prediction; more like a paranoid daymare. How realistic or unrealistic is this scenario?
On election day, the GOP messes with the election in blatant, even violent fashion – “monitors” disrupting polling stations in blue-dominant areas, National Guard units shutting down polling stations due to “riots,” etc. Then in the days afterward they disrupt counting of mailed votes in blue districts, too. They’re unsubtle and utterly unapologetic.
It’s completely obvious that hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of votes have been unlawfully destroyed or deterred. States that almost certainly would have gone for Biden show majorities for Trump. He appears to have won another EC victory.
It all ends up in front of the 6-3 SCOTUS, which rules (in essence), “The Constitution doesn’t say anything about these kinds of crimes, so even though the results look unfair, we have no basis to overturn them. Trump wins.”
This would be the most Trumpian chain of events which could happen and the possibility scares me to death. “Let’s disrupt the election so that our legislators can rule that the election was unfairly disrupted and they’ll have to decide.”
Amy Barrett and Brett Kavanaugh say “hi!”
In a way, reelecting Trump may be the only way to get him out of the public sphere for good. After 8 years of the presidency, he may be so sick and fatigued of it that he doesn’t want to be POTUS anymore.
On the other hand, if he is defeated this November, he will make annoying noise on and on and on…
So that is the silver lining of reelecting him this year; it makes it likelier he’ll be quiet and worn out by 2025.
Well he was in Toledo, Ohio today for a speech followed by an event in Cincinnati. Being from the metro area, there are a number of good reason to prioritize Toledo over a NC visit this week:
- OH and NC are both very close races but OH is worth three more electors.
- It is a border city. The metro area, and local media coverage, includes Michigan voters. Being about an hour and half from Michigan’s largest metro area also gives it some extra potential reach. Toledo is a two states for one visit target.
- Ohio absentee ballots could officially start going out last Tuesday after registration ended Monday. Vendors choking on the much greater numbers than normal has slowed mailing. Still, it is an event targeting a chunk of the electorate that is about to start voting.
- He gave his speech at a UAW hall. The speech clearly targeted union voters. Clinton suffered double digit narrowing of traditional margins among union household voters in the Midwest. She lost among union household voters in Ohio. Toledo is certainly not the only choice for showing that regionally critical demographic some love. It is a good choice.
- Biden is campaigning during a pandemic. After a surge in midsummer, the county now has several weeks where new infections are a touch lower than in the last weeks of the stay at home order. If you are looking to keep an older candidate healthy but still out on the campaign trail, Toledo makes quite a bit of sense.
Good points - thanks!
Maybe they won’t nominate him and he’ll run third party. That would help the Democratic candidate big time.
No, you’re almost certainly right. As other posters have pointed out, as long as he’s campaigning he can keep funneling campaign funds into his properties (along with other quasi-legal and blatantly illegal diversions). If he stops running for office that revenue stream disappears.
And you just know there will still be miliions of MAGAts happy to keep that pump primed.
That’s millions of MAGAts that won’t be supporting Romney or whoever else the “mainstream” Republicans nominate in 2024. I wouldn’t mind if it happens like that.