Colorado senate is more than just a maybe.
Two separate polling organizations polled this race in May 2020. The results were *Hickenlooper +17 and +18 over Gardner. Cory is toast.
*Hick hasn’t won his primary yet and I am voting for Romanoff.
Good to know!
This538 article explains why, at this point, even if several polls agree that (say) the Democratic candidate (for whatever office) is ahead by three or four percentage points, that should be considered “neck-and-neck” — and, if ahead by six or seven points, that should be considered a closer race than you might think.
Short version: Most polls at this point are polling “registered” (not “likely” voters) — and Republicans end up actually voting in greater proportions than Democrats (mainly because they tend to be older, and also in other demographics with fewer practical and perhaps cultural obstacles to voting).
Besides that it seems to me that the meaningful bit is the lean away from the national average. Swing states mostly are more Trumpward than the national vote is.
A national win by 8 is a win. But in a national win by 2? Those close ones shift away. Is it still the circumstance that the D needs to win nationally by at least 3 to more likely than not win the electoral vote?
I think Biden needs a black turn out like Obama got. Clinton did not get that and it’s one reason she lost.
538 has put up its polling averages and it’s looking pretty solid. Biden is up by 9.2 nationally and by 6.6 in the tipping point state which is surprisingly Minnesota. Perhaps the big news is that he is up by 6.9 in Florida which is a lot better than I thought.
state polls have the same problems as 2016
By that you mean many people ignore the margin of error? Or that, when state polls turn out to have been a little wrong, they tend to do so in the same direction? Or what?
What do you mean by “state polls”? Polls by organizations that know a particular state well tend to conduct more accurate polls in that state — e.g., Marquette U in Wisconsin.
If you mean “any and all polls that show data for a particular state,” well, thanks to our electoral system, those are the ONLY polls ANYONE should look at, EVER. I’ve never spent a second even glancing at a poll or headline that says “Biden up blah blah percent nationally” — it’s as useless as saying “Biden ate seven eggs this week, and Trump only ate six.”
I think the polls showing Biden with a big lead are accurate, but incomplete
They don’t take into account the very effective Republican vote suppression efforts.
. Registration purges
. Closed polling places in Democratic areas.
. Broken voting machines in Democratic areas
. Missing voting machines in Democratic areas
. Actual vote flipping by Russian hackers in key states
As soon as I read about Louisville Ky having only one polling place for 600,000 people, I knew the Secretary of State of Kentucky had to be a Republican.
This is why the Trumplicans are making such a huge effort to stop mail in voting.
Polls are going to be a poor measure for this coming election.
Trump will cheat, and cheat a lot more heavily and directly than just begging other countries to share their secrets with him.
Given that he’s dumb and talking about all the cheating you can do via mail-in voting, the safe bet would be that he’s planning to mess with the mail-in voting.
I expect that there are other things as well.
And he’ll certainly try to get a deal set up with China, to end the War, a few weeks before the election. It will be a deal favorable to China but we won’t be informed about the trade-off before the election.
Best comfort there is that the swing states Biden needs most (WI, MI, PA, AZ) have Democratic governors, Secretaries of State or both. Harder to effectively cheat when the executive branches in charge of running elections aren’t on your side.
Marquette poll out yesterday, and NYT today. Too early to celebrate, but way better than if the %s were reversed.
Brian
No idea. I have not been particularly paying attention to try and answer that question on my own. It certainly is not a focus of normal reporting and predictions of congressional races. Those focus on seats not delegation control.
I was merely pointing out that the current House does not decide if the EC doesn’t.
No.I consider both pretty unlikely at this point. The decision even going to Congress is much lower in likelihood though.
Yeah the NYT/Siena numbers are staggeringly good for Biden.
Michigan +12
Wisconsin +11
PA +10
Florida +6
Arizona +7
NC +9
Frankly these numbers appear a bit too good to be true and you have to wonder whether the pollsters have solved the problems in state polling from 2016 but overall things are looking good for Biden.
I have always thought Biden was the favorite but also that it would be a close election coming down to 2-3 states and maybe 3-4 points nationally. Now I am beginning to wonder if this could be a blowout with Biden winning by close to 10 nationally. Probably not but it’s certainly looking more likely than a few months back.
A treasure trove of swing state polling was released today (include the polls that Lantern2 posted above).
| Race | Dates | Pollster | D | R | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| President: general election Ariz. | JUN 14-17, 2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Biden 43% | Trump 39% | Biden +4 |
| President: general election Ariz. | JUN 8-16, 2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | Biden 48% | Trump 41% | Biden +7 |
| President: general election Fla. | JUN 8-18, 2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | Biden 47% | Trump 41% | Biden +6 |
| President: general election Fla. | JUN 14-15, 2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Biden 45% | Trump 41% | Biden +4 |
| President: general election Mich. | JUN 17-20, 2020 | Hodas & Associates* | Biden 56% | Trump 38% | Biden +18 |
| President: general election Mich. | JUN 8-17, 2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | Biden 47% | Trump 36% | Biden +11 |
| President: general election Mich. | JUN 14-16, 2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Biden 47% | Trump 36% | Biden +11 |
| President: general election N.C. | JUN 8-18, 2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | Biden 49% | Trump 40% | Biden +9 |
| President: general election N.C. | JUN 14-17, 2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Biden 46% | Trump 40% | Biden +6 |
| President: general election Pa. | JUN 14-16, 2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Biden 49% | Trump 39% | Biden +10 |
| President: general election Pa. | JUN 8-16, 2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | Biden 50% | Trump 40% | Biden +10 |
| President: general election Pa. | JUN 8-11, 2020 | Hodas & Associates* | Biden 54% | Trump 42% | Biden +12 |
| President: general election Wis. | JUN 14-19, 2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | Biden 45% | Trump 36% | Biden +9 |
| President: general election Wis. | JUN 12-16, 2020 | Hodas & Associates* | Biden 55% | Trump 39% | Biden +17 |
| President: general election Wis. | JUN 8-15, 2020 | Siena College/The New York Times Upshot | Biden 49% | Trump 38% | Biden +11 |
Also, I’m posting to check out the new table functionality.
If Trump sees your post, Lance, he’ll be so shaky as to need three hands to hold a glass of water.
So nice to actually have tables now.
I updated the Biden Poll with some of today’s polls too. What’s your source? It has more than Real Clear Politics.
Apologies. I’ve mentioned it before, but should probably include it every time, I always use 538’s Latest Polls page.
It has (almost) all the polls in one place with some easy controls to filter to what you want.
Thank you
Just had a thought, a rather incomplete one because I can’t suss out the implications of it, didn’t want to start a thread, so just gonna put it here…
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The GOP and Trump assisted in ‘shutting down the economy’ to help, effectively, blue states get over the pandemic.
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But, because of their very actions, they may lack the political will and capital to do the same to help the red states of Texas and Florida get over the pandemic.
