Simon again – new article today:
[The New York Times] released a second national poll (! -b) conducted with a different pollster, Ipsos. This poll did not find the kind of structural weakness for Biden their big Monday poll did. In this poll Biden leads 45.5% to 42.5% (+3) in their initial head to heads between the two candidates.
To understand what an outlier Monday’s NYT battleground states poll was let’s look at the other national and state polls released in recent days (Biden-Trump):
- NPR/Marist 51%-46% (+5) likely voters
- ABC News 49%-45% (+4) likely voters
- NYT/Ipsos 45.5%-42.5% (+3)
- RMG 44%-42% (+2) likely voters
- TIPP 42%-40% (+2)
- Big Village 42%-41% (+1) likely voters
- Data For Progress 47%-46% (+1)
- Economist/YouGov 43%-43% (tied)
- Yahoo/YouGov 45%-45% (tied)
- USA/Suffolk 37%-37% (tied)
- Morning Consult 43%-44% (-1) and 43%-43% (tied)
- Quinnipiac Wisconsin 50%-44% (+6)
- Orbital Digital Arizona 39%-38% (+1)
- CBS News MI 51%-49% PA 49%-50% WI 49%-50%
12 national polls. Biden leads in 7, 4 are tied, Trump leads in 1. State polls by serious credible pollsters showing Biden in far better shape than the NYT polls. All of these polls, with the exception of Data For Progress are independent polls, not controlled or paid for left of center organizations. I include DfP because historically their polling has not been favorable to Democrats.
Part of the reason I got the 2022 election right when so many got it wrong was that I broke out independent polls like these from polling averages which had been influenced by a flood of Republican aligned polls. These Republican funded polls often produced results 3-4 more points more Republican than independent polling. I think we are starting to see something similar happen in this election, with most independent polls finding a close competitive election, perhaps one now where we have a slight advantage; and R funded polling (and NYT/Siena) finding it much more Republican. It’s clear Trump and Republicans think they are seeing a new red wave, and that they lead. I don’t think it’s a fair read of the data, just as I didn’t think the red wave was a fair read of the data in 2022.