The Bulwark commissioned a survey of Republican Nikki Haley primary voters to see where they stood as a cohort seven months after her March concession to Trump. Just one poll, of course – nevertheless, the findings:
If the election were held today, Donald Trump would win just 45 percent of those who backed Haley in the GOP primary while 36 percent said they’d back Harris, the new poll shows, according to the survey of 781 registered Republicans and independents …
Trump’s level of support from Haley voters in the poll represents a significant drop in support for Trump, who won those same voters against Joe Biden by 59-28 percent. That 22 percentage point change in preference (from plus 31 percent for Trump in 2020 to plus 9 percent in this survey) could represent a swing of millions of votes.
… [The survey] shows slippage for Trump among both Haley voters who identified as Republicans and those who identified as independents. Only 49 percent of Republican Haley voters plan to vote for Trump in 2024, compared to 64 percent who voted for him in 2020. Among independent Haley voters, only 38 percent said they were voting for Trump, compared with 48 percent who backed him in 2020.