Remember the 2012 Republican polling? The expected (and actual) nominee was Romney (who had been second in 2008), but over the course of the pre-primary polling, we had Gingrich ahead, Cain ahead, Perry ahead, Bachman ahead, Huckabee ahead, etc. At that point in the game a vote for anyone but Romney was a vote for “I’m mad at the status quo and I’ll pick the flavor of the month.” A poll result at this point for Trump is likely the same. Hopefully reality will set it, as it did later in 2012, and “I’m mad at the status quo” will lose its appeal by comparison with “I remember that guy, and boy was he awful”
Yes, which is why withholding ones support for an objectively better candidate is such a stupid way to send a message. But that doesn’t seem stop people from thinking that it’s the best way to advance their agenda.
I meant specifically it’s for reporting on the polls without giving that context that they should be faulted for, rather than just reporting on them per se.
They are also guilty of giving more coverage of the polls that show “OMG Trump is ahead, ahh, we are doomed!” Than the ones that show Biden ahead or a tie
All I see is them giving much more coverage to the polls they themselves funded and sponsored. This is not something to feel guilty about IMHO.
The media benefits from a perception that the campaign is a “horse race” because it’s good for ratings, so they constantly push a narrative that things are THIS CLOSE and it could go either way. It even happens in safe races here in WA, where in recent years they’ve repeatedly claimed Republicans and Democrats are running neck-and-neck for governor or Senate, then the general comes along and the Democrat wins by 10+ points. Last year Patty Murray beat her Republican challenger by 14 points and even after the election the media was calling it a close race.
FWIW, my brother was exit-polled one time. He deliberately gave all wrong answers.
I’ve also received mailings from the Gallup Poll a couple times. Yes, it does exist, and yes, I did fill it out and mail it back.
I checked the day after election story in the state’s leading newspaper. You have to read deep into it to find anything like that, and it isn’t much like it:
Patty Murray defeats Tiffany Smiley in U.S. Senate race
Why did she waste all that time fundraising if victory was certain?
From where I come from, the leading pollsters and newspapers employ dedicated people doing their best. I don’t like seeing partisans on either side playing the ump.
Back before the 2016 election I used to get a lot of Trump polling material in the mail, which of course always ended with a plea for money. When you read the questions you could tell how slanted they were, so I always responded with the opposite of what seemed to be the desired answer. And when they would have a space to comment I’d tell them if they didn’t know I wasn’t a Republican, after being told that in previous polls, how could I trust them to keep the country organized. I LOVED messing with them.
Back when I was working in market research, the industry had a term for that: “frugging” (“FundRaising Under the Guise of Research”). Those were, as you’ve probably figured out, not legitimate political polls.
I’ve had a number of poll calls on both of my cell phones (my personal phone and work phone). I answered the polls on my personal phone. My work phone gets poll calls from the opposite corner of the country since a previous owner of that number moved down there and shared it with everyone around, and I believe is still handing it out. I know way too much personal info about a woman I’ve never met.
But I’m proof that they absolutely call cell phones (and these were real people I chatted with, not bots). I don’t have a land line so I can’t tell you if those get called.
I’ve been voting some 40 years (I was not a citizen the first 10 years). I have NEVER had a pollster who is from a nonpartisan poll call me. I only get the Democrat/ask for money type of polls.
Or the questions are ambiguous enough to invite certain interpretations of the answers.
I actually hadn’t thought about it but around here, yes. When I lived in Chicago I received a phone call once when I had a landline, but most polling I encountered was either at a voting place or in the Loop, usually near the train stations.
With phones out of the equation, the local malls are pretty much your only chance to canvas a lot of people. Downtown is literally just Main St. and I’ve never seen more than a couple dozen people there, even at noon on a weekday. It’s mostly government offices and diners serving the people that work in them. I know some people lurk around the polling place on election days but I’m always too early to see them.
I do not have a landline. I have a cellphone but it is set up to send any call from a non-contact straight to voicemail. I vote, but I do not get “polled”.
To be clear I don’t think either pollster or the media (the mainstream media and pollsters, that is, there are some who are obviously partisan hacks, but that is not who we are talking about here) are deliberately distorting the truth to favor one side.
The pollsters just seem to have a problem accurately, no one outside the MAGA non-reality bubble is claiming they are deliberately trying the skew the results.
The media likewise (while generally being normal non-psychotic human beings, and not huge fans of trump) are not dishonestly attempting to skew the results (i don’t buy the idea they are deliberately trying to make races closer than they are.) They are basically just going for the easy story, whether its a poll, Trump generally, or the “Crime d’jour”. The modern media will always go for the easy shock-value story, over any kind of analysis (that isn’t having two vacuous talking heads arguing) or in-depth background that gives context.
Along with the problem of getting a truly random sample to answer, the basic problem I see with polls is that they always wind up being binary. It would be fascinating (although impossible to administer) to have a poll where the choices are broken down something like this:
- I will definitely vote for Candidate A/B
- At this time I’m leaning but not committed to A/B
- You didn’t ask about C or D, so I’ll just say A/B
- I hate both A and B and will vote for a third-party
- I hate both A and B and won’t vote at all
- I hate both A and B, but understand in America elections are binary and I have to vote for someone, so I will vote for A/B
- I hate both A and B, but understand in America elections are binary and I have to vote for someone, so I will flip a coin when I get into the voting booth
- I will tell you I’m voting for A/B, but the truth is I probably won’t vote at all
- I am one of the 5%-10% of voters who is truly undecided and will stay that way until the very last minute
- I’m sorry I answered the phone and am not even thinking about the questions you’re asking, just answering them as quickly as possible to finish this
Trump won the three states in 2016 by less than 1%. Journalist explains.
Only in the sense that anyone who places an op-ed in a major newspaper becomes a journalist.
From Michael Podhorzer’s opinion piece, previously linked:
I think it will be close. But I know I do not know it. All polls I saw said it would be close in Argentina, and it was not.
Some political scientists do emphasize the importance of turnout. Others go with the median voter theorem. While the latter makes more sense to me, bald assertion doesn’t determine which is correct.
Since turnout for both parties increased, this is supported by evidence. In 2020, both parties – especially the Republicans – increased advertising, and every ad was a reminder to those on both sides to vote. But this is neither a good nor bad sign for BIden.
Optimistic nonsense. Biden should remain true to himself, but Trump is more trusted on immigration.
If this guy is a journalist, why the media bashing?
I pay attention to the horse race because I am interested. But the vast majority of headlines have nothing to do with it. James Carville and David Axelrod are entitled to their informed opinion and are not taking away anyone’s agency. If they think the election result is inevitable, they should say it. But they did not say it.
I think a disturbing number of people still don’t know what Trump and MAGA stand for.