As mentioned in an anecdote in a Pit thread, they just look like migrants! You know!
Nm wrong forum.
This “perception is reality” might not be confined to MAGA voters. It could be playing a part in Biden’s low numbers. My guess is that voters on the far left, some of who will reluctantly vote for Biden in November, are saying they don’t support him in the hope that he is forced to drop out before Election Day.
So in addition to shy Trumpers, there are shy Bideners?
I am sure there are! But there’s no reason to think shy Bideners, this cycle only, or early in the cycle only, outnumber shy Trumpers. And looking at 2016 and 2020 polling vs. actual, there’s some real reason to see shy Trumpers outnumbering shy Democrats.
As to who these shy Bideners are, I have no objection to speculating that they are left of Biden. Some will say they are voting for Cornel West when they are actually just sending a message, to Biden, that he should be more like West.
One way to peel shy voters off is to look at polls where the undecided are asked to lean to either Biden or Trump. I find it hard to believe that many left of Biden voters would actually tell the pollster they prefer Trump. And if Biden is doing better in those kind of polls, it is only by the slightest.
There is one reason for my having a little hope you are correct. I read something where Nate Silver seemed to buy just the idea I poo-poo – that shy Biden polling responses are numerous and/or will fade when Joe is nominated. Of course, Nate’s posts are not some fundamentalist biblical text that should be accepted uncritically.
I wouldn’t call them shy Biden voters. I’m thinking more along the lines of voters with a “perfect is the enemy of the good” type mindset. Someone who is thinking “I want a prime filet mignon from a top steakhouse. My choice is between a burger and a shit sandwich? I’m tired of burgers so I’m going to refuse to support the burger choice.” But when it comes time to eat, they obviously will go with the burger when no filet mignon materializes.
No if. It is happening in Denver. Don’t believe my eyes? How about USA Today.
In Denver, the newcomers have erected ramshackle tent cities near upscale apartment buildings, flooded medians to offer windshield-washing services and staked out street corners with signs begging for money.
Oh boy, near upscale apartment buildings. The inconvenience must be eye opening. Must be, right?
So you don’t believe me they are in the intersections washing windshields? Why don’t you come over to Federal and Alameda and debunk me yourself. And what’s your issue with the fact that we have run out of free hotels for them and now they add to our homeless population. Sure maybe USA Today could have phrased it better but the point is in Denver there are homeless everywhere. Rich areas, poor area, across the street from the Capitol.
The problem with this analogy is that voters can abstain from voting, as opposed to being forced to choose between Biden and Trump.
If it were mandatory voting (which, by analogy, would be akin to someone being forced to choose between burgers and shit,) then of course most of the voters you described would choose the burger.
But given the option to sit on the couch and not vote, there are a significant number of voters who will refuse to “eat,” as a protest of not being given the filet mignon. The result is that the election will be likelier to have shit win than burgers.
There’s nothing to be shy about in supporting Biden. Biden is not seen as a reprehensible villain, like Trump. Biden is a mainstream run-of-the-mill Democrat. There’s no “shame” for people in supporting Biden. So I don’t think there are any shy Bidenites who are hiding their true feelings, unless they’re blue voters in a deep-red region - but then that would always have been the case, whether it’s voting for Clinton, Obama or Biden.
I don’t see how Biden is any different for left-wing voters than he was four years ago, or any Democratic president ever.
We are never going to get a presidential candidate to espouse our views. We know that perfectly well. Whether we vote or not is based on how much you convince yourself that your vote doesn’t matter. I think the vast majority of left-wing voters who would be inclined to vote at all will vote against Trump. The ones that won’t probably weren’t likely voters anyway.
It is very frustrating to watch the Overton window move away, though.
So I’m certain you favor giving them work permits, so they can support themselves, pay taxes and contribute to the economy. Right?
The only data we have on voters, past polling some 1000 unwilling participants now, is the 2022 election. Trump and MAGA should have been very angry. Yet they gained very few seats in congress.
Absolutely! I have always been a supporter of immigration intended to bringing people in to the United States for work. I think it stems from growing up in Los Angeles back in the days when they still taught about the Bracero Program. Why can’t that be a model for our immigration system today?
This strikes me as stretching to find a reason to say Trump is not ahead.
If nothing much changed in the past year, a typical high quality pollster has to call maybe 50,000 (someone previously posted) or 100,000 (what I read in the NY Times) to find 1,000. But those 1,000 are obviously willing, and, strange but true, once demographic weightings are applied, just as representative of November voters as the samples were back in the twentieth century when they only had to call maybe 4,000 to find 1,000 willing.
Also, the data to look at is everyone willingly responding over the past year or so — probably hundreds of thousands. I say probably because some have undoubtedly responded more than once.
Tell me Trump is a weak candidate because of legal problems — absolutely. He’s the weakest candidate they could have nominated. Most voters have firm unfavorable opinions about him. But if the election was today, he’d win.
If the election were today, he’d have ~70% chance of winning is more accurate I’d say.
His lead is a bit smaller than Clinton’s was on election even in 2016. Nate’s model back then had her as a 72% favorite.
I also think it is useful to look back at the model that cycle. Clinton’s odds peaked at maybe 88% and Trump fought it back to about a tie right after the convention. The model didn’t even start until June. 2016 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight
There is an eternity left, and all we can say for sure is that it is close and likely will be close.
Well, for starters, because Republicans have blocked any possible effort at reform, because it might make Biden look good.
But we have lots of threads to discuss immigration. This one’s supposed to be about polling. /hijack
Polling outfit did a large poll with hundreds of Black respondents to see if the supposed 20% Black support for Trump was real:
Spoiler: it was not. 11%, about in line with recent elections.
Trump lost 41 seats in 2 years. Joe lost 9.
We have a recent test case that we can analyze (when not arguing about windshield cleaners in Denver) to see if polling is broken - the special election to fill George Santos’ House seat.
2024 New York’s 3rd congressional district special election - Wikipedia
Wikipedia lists six polls taken prior to the election. Excluding the second Emerson college one, and adjusting out the undecideds and taking a straight average yields:
Tom Suozi D 51.6 percent
Mazi Melesa R 48.4 percent
The final result was Suozi 53.8 percent, Melesa 46.0 percent, Write-In 0.2 percent.
Polls correctly predicted the winner of a fairly close race. The polls underestimated the support for the Democratic candidate by two percentage points, within the margin of error.