Polling: what does "likely to win" mean?

Politics & Elections
1

More specifically, how could a poll show Trump up by nearly 2 points nationally:


          Clinton   Trump   Johnson   Stein   Other  Not sure
OVERALL	   40.8%    42.6%     7.2%     3.3%    1.9%   4.2%

but in a footnote aaaaaaaaaaaaaall the way at the bottom of the page it says:


Likely To Win    Clinton    Trump    Too Close
Overall            52%	     20%        20%
Democrats          77%	     7%         11%
Republicans        26%	     37%        30%
Independents       49%       19%        21%

Are there really that many people who polled for Trump but then, in the same survey, admitted by a huge margin that Clinton would be more likely to win?

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

2

Sure.

  1. Some have a grip on reality.
  2. “Rigged.”
3

Misread question. NM

4

I don’t see the conflict there. In the Ohio Senate race, I think that Portman is more likely to win, but I’m still voting Strickland. And I’m sure that plenty of people have similar views of the Presidential race.