Don’t know. Scriptural literalism and conservatism seem to play differently to different markets. The RC Church in Latin America, for instance, is a different animal than in the US. There’s an interesting trend in the Southern US right now, with a resurgence in more conservative Catholic ethics, driven in no small part by the increase in the Latino population. Overlooking this trend may have proven fatal, for instance, in John Kerry’s bid to win Florida, as he may have taken for granted the Latino vote. Sure, there is the anti-Castro bloc, but just as significant have been Latinos indifferent to the Castro regime, and ambivalent about Republicans, given their anti-immigrant rhetoric. But throw “values” issues like gay marriage and abortion into the mix, and suddenly the dynamic can change, if one is willing to exploit those issues. A lot of Latino Catholics voted for Bush, more than in the last election (excepting the anti-Castro Cubans, again). I don’t think the Elian Gonzalez incident can account completely for the change in trend.
So, will JPII’s words erode Catholicism in the US, or focus it in a different, growing demographic? Need a swing to conservatism lead to a post-Christian society like Western Europe? I don’t think anyone knows.
A cite for the above. The salient quote: