Portent or Coincidence?

I feel horrible and grieve terribly for the many thousands killed by themost powerful earthquake and resultant tsunamis recorded in recent times- The Magnitude 9.0 earthquake off Northern Sumatra on December 26, 2004. My compassion and greatest sympathies are with the relatives of the dead and survivors. I lost my father in September to a sudden heartattack and am close to their suffering. Prayers and blessings to all.
I feel particularly weirded and beset by this tragedy and the events of this entire year due to a premonition I had on May 3, 2004. It is documented here in this thread.
This is what I wrote:

Regardless of the either coincidental or portentous nature of this statement and the logic that might be used to explain it away, I am left with the knowledge and fact that this prediction has manifest, albeit 237 days later. I am hesitant to attach great importance to this statement and event but it persists with great personal psychic impact for obvious reasons. Is this coincidence or prophecy? How can I possibly see this as anything but the Greater and Mysterious at work?

Have you ever predicted anything else before? If so, what was your record of hits and misses?

What length of time would lead you to believe that your prediction was related to the event? 250 days? 2 years? 2 weeks?

Since the deaths and destruction was mainly caused by the tsunami, not the quake itself, and there was little if any fire involved, how close to the actual events do you think your prediction was?

IMO, it doesn’t sound like much of a predictions, considering we’ve had several other earthquakes of note since May, granted not with such a great loss of life, and your prediction isn’t all together accurate.

So, who do you like in the Super Bowl, devilsknew?

Wait. How did it manifest itself? That there was an earthquake? There are hundreds per day. That it was a big one? I don’t see any prediction about the size. The “elementals” thing? I’m not aware of any fires connected with this tragedy. Please clear up what you think you may have predicted.

Two of the guys who work with me have been predicting a stock market crash since I have known them. When or if such a crash occurs, they will feel like they were vindicated - their predictions came true!

However, such predictions are useless without a time-frame. I can tell you with confidense that there will be a major traffic accident on US RT 83 North, causing a traffic jam for hours. If I don’t tell you when, you won’t know when to avoid 83. OF COURSE there will be an accident … sometime. And the nature of the earth indicates that sometime soon there will be an earthquake. Depending on your definition of soon.

Don’t be silly. You should always avoid 83…

Considering that there are roughly 1600 magnitute 5 or above earthquakes every year, then it’s a fairly safe bet that your premonition was merely stating the inevitable.

I’ve been having sex ‘manifestations’ SINCE May 7. Should I call my wife?:smiley:

Wait, so, seven months ago you made a nebulous prediction that, at the time, you felt was so imminent that it might have actually happened while you were posting, but now you want to claim that this particular event is the fulfilment of it?

Why this one? Why not the Iran Earthquake on May 28, 2004? Why not any of these?

Of course this all leads to the nature and heart of exactly what a premonition might be, as there are no guidebooks nor universal standards. I didn’t get a timeframe, there was no magical exact indexing of a time or date. The experience was marked as I recall by a very peculiar series of events preceded by the overwhelming magnitude of certainty and dread that exclaimed “EARTHQUAKE!!!”, it was very instinctual and seemed motivated by an adrenal reaction- also remarkable because I live in Ohio and have never experienced a “true” earthquake. I have no touchstone for predicting natural disasters or what the sensations and series of thoughts might translate to as far as proximity in time or space (and by very nature this might not even be possible in such a phenomenon). The premonition was vague in specifics but certain in event—EARTHQUAKE, and by amplification… I assumed a big one…something that meant certain disaster and great loss of life, not a tremblor or small event and innately, something that would equate with both the order of manifestation and type of elementals that manifested. To me, it was very unusual and its impact was quite remarkable demonstrated by the fact that I felt compelled to actually share and confide such an absurdity with the bartender and subsequently here at the SDMB, of all places (hostile territory in my mind). I have never claimed psychic ability nor made a serious prediction outside of this one. This was not a prediction of a time specific event but rather a strong urge to warn people that something big was coming and that it was an Earthquake, that I believed and was certain in every fiber of being. It lacks accuracy as a predictor because it lacked intention and is best characterized as a spontaneous experience.
The exact events or elemental manifestations that superimposed and followed the certainty and dread of EARTHQUAKE! happened over a course and chain of maybe 10 minutes. They were mundane events but seemed rather obvious (to me, on a personal level, at least) as spontaneous expressions of three primal elements. On May 3, 2004 I was at an Irish pub/restaurant chatting with the bartender, she struck me as “earthy” and after chatting awhile I developed a distinct impression that she was a “hippy-lesbian chick” (excuse the generalization), and the kind of person I am comfortable with- easy to relate to and down to earth. So, I’m enjoying a $2 Guinness Draft (Monday night special) and smoking a cigarette, Barflyin’ so to speak… I’m sitting at the bar and a very strong pang of dread overwhelms me with no particular or obvious motivator and simultaneously the word EARTHQUAKE!!! crystallizes and slams into my counciousness. I felt an adrenaline rush and actually had to stifle an urge to run. Immediately after this urge and physically to my left, the bartender is replacing a glass on a shelf, as she does this the shelf collapses and about a dozen pint glasses fall and shatter behind the bar. This strikes me as exceedingly odd and disturbing considering my adrenaline and the word EARTHQUAKE! in the forefront of my mind, but I ask her if she’s ok and make a comment to “not sweat it, shit happens” or something to that effect. The import of this incident is great in itself to me but doesn’t really materialize as the earth elemental within the set until the following incidents transpire. She cleans up the mess and I start talking to her again-- Now at this point I must explain to you that I am an amateur magician of sorts. My act and patter is mystical, fun, slightly weird and a great distraction and icebreaker. I specialize in close-up magic and my act is specifically a bar act- coins, cigarettes, paper money, sometimes cards, etc. with transmogrification, de/rematerialization, and levitation as important reocurring archetypes in effect. At the height of my magic days back in the 90’s I had a repetoire of around 15 “tricks” that made up my act. I don’t really do it that often or to the great effect that I once did, but I still occasionally do a couple of my standards and sleights for fun, to liven things up, amaze and entertain, or in most cases to meet or impress beautiful women. My act is not bad and quite original, I am very skilled and practiced at certain tricks and most of my effects never fail to amaze. Think “Hippie David Blaine”. The act is classical magic made fresh with my entirely original patter that incorporates mysticism and ironically, in a comedic and sardonic Penn and Telleresque way, I debunk and reveal both myself and select tricks as an important part of the act.-- that said, I’m talking to the bartender and have decided to do one of my favorite, most simple, and most effective “tricks”. It is my take on what is popularly known as the “Ashes to Ashes effect”. I have a variable patter for this trick that is usually dependant on the crowd or person, I do a “Telekinetic” version, “Eastern Mystic” version, “Phoenix (bird)” version, and sometimes I just do an improvisational off the cuff version. On that night I decided to do my “Eastern Mystic” lead-in which is really my default version if I start with this trick, as it sets the stage for my entire act. The effect was and is essentially that I asked her very seriously if she has ever heard of “Chi” or “Ki” or “Prana”, regardless of her answer I explained to her the concept of “chi” and that (still deadpan serious) after years of yogic practice I have been able to learn to control my chi and actually project it and influence carbon in both inanimate and animate states, all the while dramatically smoking a cigarette. At this point I ask her if she is right or left handed… Whichever hand she stated I asked her to hold it in front of her in a tight fist. I then hold out my hand opposite hers in a tight fist and go into my Yin and Yang spiel and explain that I will use a specific pressure/acupuncture point directly below my third knuckle on the top of my fist which corresponds to so and so meridian…yada yada yada. I then dramatically butt ash directly from the lit cigarette onto that exact spot below the third knuckle on the top of my hand.(Sometimes I actually burn my hand, sometimes not…that night I did…I am accustomed to it and it is usually slight…all for the sake of my craft.) I do some dramatic breathing and hand movements and “draw on my chi” and rub the ash into my hand. I then ask her to open her hand and look at her palm directly below her third knuckle, and of course there stands the impossible, a large spot of ash diametrically opposite my ash on the inside of her hand. “From my outside to your inside, inverse and opposite…blah blah blah.” I let it all sink in and let her feel the amazement and mystification and then go on to explain that it is actually an ancient trick very likely of Indian origin and that certainly my presentation was typical of some of the magic that Indian yogis have used to prove their powers and gain followers and adherents. I do not reveal the actual trick, however. I just explain that I am a magician. So, this was not unusual to me ostensibly, but it is archetypically one of my fire tricks and significant in its representation of the fire elemental. She then proceeds to spill a pitcher she had just draughted all over the bar and some on me… WATER! (Well, BEER!, actually.) This all struck me as funny and meaningful because those are kind of the basic elementals and archetypes that I deal in as part of my act and I was thinking in those terms, half jokingly I mumbled Earth, Fire and Water… I then told her that I had the strangest but really strong impression and feeling that there was going to be a big earthquake… I explained to her and pointed out the significance of what I had just experienced from my perception and POV. I kidded with her just as I was leaving to keep an eye on the sky, that there should be an air elemental, soon.
So that’s it… Whether it has greater meaning objectively, I don’t know. I just know that it is highly significant in many ways to me and felt like a portent after matching recent events, you be the judge.

It means nothing. Relax. You don’t have magic powers. There is no such thing as a “premonition.” It’s just a coincidence and not even a very remarkable one.

Let me lay this on you. When I was picking last years celebrity death pool the first name to pop into my head was Christopher Reeve. Something just told me loud and clear that Superman was going to buy the farm this year. So I listed him as one of my picks and scored big. Do I think I had a premonition? No. I just think it’s a weird coincidence. I think my only other pick that panned out was Ronald Reagan and that wasn’t exactly a shocking thing to predict. If Reeve hadn’t croaked, I’d have thought nothing of it.

This year the first name to pop into my head was Emo Philips. I am confident that Emo will survive the coming year. Sometimes we kid ourselves into thinking that these things are much more significant than they really are.

How come not a single psychic predicted 9/11? Because that’s not as nevulous as an “earthquake” in some undetermined part of the world. There is at least one earthquake with fatalities every year. It’s no trick tp predict one.

Paragraphs please! Oh my eyes they weep!

Much of what I think has been pointed out already but I wanted to add this. You said:

Did you predict an ‘air elemental’ or not. Seems to me that you did both which seems pretty easy to fufil.

Hey…That’s really weird because back in September 2003, I had a premonition that someone would have a premonition about an earthquake!!!
Okay, I’m just kidding. But, I hope you get the serious point behind it.

In fact I am going to predict one right now. I feel strongly that there will be an earthquake that causes much loss of life in the not too distant future. I see this happening in an area near water during the daylight hours.

Anyone want to bet aginst this “sure thing”?

:wink:

How about this.

Today is Tuesday, December 28, 2004.

I hereby predict that in the year 2005 there will be a devastating earthquake, causing great loss of life and property destruction.

I also hereby predict that in the year 2005 a devastating hurricane will strike the southeastern United States, causing great destruction.

I also hereby predict that in the year 2005 a major American city there will be a large fire that will destroy many homes and businesses.

I also hereby predict that there will be a terrible accident on I-5 northbound in Seattle, causing massive traffic backups and snarling the entire puget sound highway system for hours. Several people will be injured or even killed.

I also predict that my two year old daughter will watch the movie “Shrek 2” and ask that we skip the scene at the fairy godmother’s factory because it is too scary, what with the potion spilling everywhere and the alarms and Shrek and Donkey and Puss running away and everyone yelling. For some reason, I’m just getting some mysterious vibe that says that my daughter will ask to see Shrek 2 just about every day, probably more than once every day, and I’m also getting the vibe that she will exclaim “He’s so cute!” when she sees Puss in Boots making his eyes really big and holding his hat. And also, instead of “Shrek 2”, I predict that my daughter will call the movie “Scary Scary Shrek”, because it has the aforementioned scary scene at the potion factory.

Coincidence? I don’t think so.

What you all fail to grasp is that I didn’t consciously make a prediction, or even want to make a prediction. It compelled me I am not claiming that it is prophecy or prediction. I am just relating a series of events…

Cite, please. Given all that we don’t know about time and space and the brain, I prefer to keep an open skeptical mind.

Do you have an open mind about goblins? Magic carpets? Vampires?

Let me put it another way. There is no physical mechanism by which a person could acquire knowledge of an earthquake 7 months before it happens. There is no physical mechanism by which the human mind can “receive” information about future events. It’s impossible. It can’t happen. Just like People can’t flap their arms and fly or transform into werwolves, they can’t predict the future. It would violate the laws of physics…which is another way of saying it’s impossible. I don’t have to prove that the impossible is impossible. If I said there was no such thing as elves would you demand a cite?

It is incumbant upon those who make extraordinary or fantasic claims…impossible claims…to pony up the evidence. I don’t have to disprove nonsense.

Oh yeah, Diogenes? And what about my predictions? Huh? What about my detailed predictions about future events that will take place in the future. After all, that is were we will all spend the rest of our lives. How can I predict exactly what movies my daughter will want to watch in 2005, a year that hasn’t even happened yet? What about that, tough guy?

There are big earthquakes all the time. It was just a matter of time before one happened.