Possibility of a sex-specific plague

At the request of the lovely and charming C K Dexter Haven, here’s a question I posed in another thread where it wasn’t quite on-topic. I’d be interested in what doctors, science-y people, and the rest of you smarties think.


Comic books aside, would a sex-specific plague be possible at all? Barring some massive human conspiracy to intentionally infect only men, how would the disease “know” if its host were male or female? Men and women don’t seem different enough for there to be a communicable disease that would kill one sex while allowing the other to escape.

Even an X-linked genetic disorder (either natural or engineered) seems unlikely to wipe out all men. If every woman on earth were a carrier for the disease, their male offspring would still stand a 50% chance of inheriting the “good” X chromosome. I think we could maintain the current birth rate even with a 2:1 female/male ratio, provided humanity could either organize widespread sperm donation from the healthy men or readjust social norms. At least four kids for every couple, at least two wives for every healthy man, or maybe just lots of FMF threesomes. Hey, there’s a motivation right there for some evil mad scientist to create such a disease: sure, half of all boys would be born with a deadly genetic disease, but the lucky half would get plenty of hot FMF action!

Ever read Frank Herbert’s White Plague ?

Tho a work of fiction, the book’s bibliography showed some of the cutting edge (at that time, 1982) research that he looked into to get a plausible idea. The story focused on a virus that plugged itself in to the part of the DNA that determines gender.

I can’t find a list of the sources he used, tho. I lost the book and the online stuff doesn’t list it. Was a fascinating idea, too. Oh well…

You’re going to have to accept less than perfect selectivity and specificity. Medically speaking, gender isn’t as unambiguous as you might think, in the general population. It would be impossible to have an infectious agent that made the same social and individual decisions of each upbringing. Aside from hermaphrodites (both sets of genitalia, often with one or both sets being rudimentary) and XY anomalies, there are also mosaics (e.g. a male embryo can somehow lose the Y chromosome in one early fetal cell resulting in a mix of XO [Turner’s syndrome - physically a female) in some tissues, but XY (male) in other tissues. Depending on luck and development, such a mosaic might appear male or female.

One possible target would be the Y chromosome. You could, for example, have a retrovirus (or other virus capable of integrating into the host genome) that can only integrate into a specific and (ideally) essential sequence found only on that chromosome. A fairly good list of such sites has already been compiled, during the search for the TDF (Testes Determining Factor) in humans. AFAIK, the TDF, which triggers the primary switch from female sex organs (the default) to male hasn’t been definitively identified, but all the candidates had to pass the basic criteria: a) found only in men; and b) present in all men.

This may be the region Frank Herbert wrote about

Let’s say that the virus also contains a high efficiency enhancer (etc.)and a growth gene that causes a rapid virulent cancer. Infection of blood producing cells in the bone marrow are just one target that sometimes produces cancers and similar conditions that can kill in weeks, It’s possible that corrupted immune cells could also be as fast. Almost any sufficiently metastatic tumor in random tissues could do the job in months – anf that’s disregarding the reproduction and spread of the virus itself inside the body.

Another, possibly less specific, target might be a receptor, possibly a receptor involved in the whole cascade of events triggered by the TDF. Obvious candidates that aren’t on the Y chromosome (like testosterone receptors) wouldn’t be the best choices: women have testosterone, too – and most genes triggered late in development could be accidentally triggered in a few cells, especially in advanced age. In my hypothetical super-cancer virus, a few susceptible cells might be enough to kill.

BTW “mutant” generally means “altered genetically”. You should also consider “aberrant expression” as well. This is when the genes are generally okay, but sone cellular switch gets flipped the wrong way in some cells.

Why would any organism or virus develop a behavior that halves its chances of survival?

You mean like baldness? Yes, I know there are women who deal with it too, but since it’s affected by testosterone, it’s a much bigger problem for men.

I’ve just dug out my as yet unread British paperback copy of The White Plague. There seems to be no acknowledgement for his sources apart from some literary ones like Yeats and Dylan Thomas.
Serves me right for thinking I could contribute to the discussion. :slight_smile:

Shucks!

Maybe I remembered it wrongly. :confused:
Oh well… Here’s to trying!

Such a plague would not occur naturally, for the simple reason that natural plagues aren’t that deadly. A germ might not care if it kills its hosts, but it will care if it kills them too quickly. Kill quickly, and you run out of hosts, and without hosts, the germ dies, too.

But let’s set that aside. How would a plague distinguish? The only ways I can think of would be to target the Y chromosone, target the reproductive organs, or target the male chemistry. In the first case, the virus might seek out some gene found on the Y and insert genes for something deadly (a toxin or whatnot).

In the second case, just destroying the reproductive organs wouldn’t kill the men (but if it’s global, it might still be just as bad in the long run). Maybe our man-killer could trigger a really vicious case of prostate cancer? But I don’t know how specific we could get on this; I’m not sure if you could trigger male cancers without also triggering corresponding female cancers.

In the third case, what I would try is either cranking up the levels of testosterone, or increasing the sensitivity to it. The idea is to give the men an overdose, while the women (who start with lower levels) would be more likely to survive. There’s probably not a sharp dividing line where you could kill all of the men and spare all of the women, and at the very least, puberty would be delayed for any pre-pubescent girls around when the plague hit, but if testosterone levels returned to normal shortly afterward, I don’t think there’d be any permanent effects on the women.

IANA endochrinologist, epidemiologist, physician, or any other biological professional, so take all of this with adequate quantities of granulated NaCl.

That’s why I liked using an integrating virus as a vector, and specified a super “tumor gene” attached to a strong constituitive enhancer. I saw lethality as separate from infection. The virus might infect a woman (a good way to help spread the virus), but wouldn’t kill her, because there was no suitable place in her genome for it to splice in and become tumorigenic. If didn’t want to infect women at all, you might choose a male receptor as the binding point for transfection (entry into the cell) and the DNA splicing would be your backup, to assure minimal lethality to women.

Though I agree that such a virus is unlikely to arise naturally, there is absolutely no reason that a natural mutant like this couldn’t cause a world-wide epidemic.

Chronos said “A germ might not care if it kills its hosts, but it will care if it kills them too quickly. Kill quickly, and you run out of hosts, and without hosts, the germ dies, too.” A virus doesn’t “care” if it dies or not, because it was never alive to begin with. It spreads if it can, like a biochemical machine. Chronos is thinking of strains that have been in the environment for a long time. This argument wouldn’t apply to new strains – how would it “know” that it would kill off all its hosts? It wouldn’t. An “anti-redhead virus” could sweep through the world population, wiping out all its hosts and be heard no more, but “being an evolutionary failure” like this wouldn’t keep it from existing the first time around. All species die out eventually. That doesn’t mean they couldn’t have existed -or flourished- in the first place.

I had, nontheless, envisioned a man-made plague. When the OP said “Barring some massive human conspiracy to intentionally infect only men” I assumed they meant infection specifically – a James Bondian “League of Man-Hating Women” – and didn’t mean to rule out genetically engineered viruses

Perhaps the most hypothetical part of the virus (the hardest to engineer) would be the “super tumor gene”. While it’s possible that such a thing exists or will be discovered by accident, I’d like to suggest something more within reach: a pakage of genes for proteins that bind or block several anti-tumor pathways.

Tumorigenesis is a complex process. It’s not enough to just go rogue, you have to grow and find some way to sustain yourself (e.g Dr. Judah Folkman’s work on angiogenesis in tumors - or “how tumors grow themselves a blood supply”) One advantage of using substances that block the central human anti-tumor pathways, you wouldn’t need to let the tumors grow much. When the infected cells overgrew and died, they would release their content of “anti-tumor blockers” alond with their load of replicating viruses, and trigger small tumors all around the body.

I should also explain the “enhancer”. Enhancers are a type of control element in DNA that cause nearby genes to be expressed more - up to hundreds of times as much as an identical gene that isn’t near an enhancer. They are sequences that don’t actually code for anything, but might provide (e.g.) a optimal site for RNA polymerase (the enzyme that copies the DNA blueprint into the RNA working copies that the ribosomes use to create proteins) to attach to the DNA. One the RNA polymerase attaches, it is “highly processive” – it chugs along, doing its thing like a train on a track or a paving machine.

What about a virus that only attacked sperm cells? It could be present in both men and women but it would have no effect on women. Sure, it wouldn’t kill the man but, in an evolutionary sense, once your sterile, your effectively dead.

Don’t worry, I didn’t at all mean to rule out genetically engineered viruses. I didn’t even mean to rule out viruses engineered specifically to kill males, just scenarios that hinged on only males being exposed to the disease in the first place. Plenty of diseases already exist that could kill all men and only men if all men and only men were infected with them. But it would be less trouble for the “League of Man-Hating Women” to just shoot them or something.

I hadn’t seriously entertained the idea of a Y-linked disease because I wasn’t aware of the research involving the search for TDF. That was still a bit silly of me though, because sometime back I posted a thread asking about Y-linked genetic traits and learned that while there aren’t a lot there are some, and that’s enough to give our mankilling disease a home.

That would have the effect of halting reproduction, leaving the existing men and women of the world to die off together. However, a virus that attacked only Y sperm cells could allow female children to be conceived for as long as the existing male population survived. Those female children would grow up to find themselves in a world without men. If they remembered to freeze some sperm they might even carry on for a few more generations after that.

A sperm-killer virus also brings up the possibility of a disease that could lead to a world without women. I don’t think an X-linked disease would do it because men have an X chromosome too, and in fact since they have only the one they’re more vulnerable to X-linked diseases than women. But a disease that could kill only the X sperm would eventually lead to a world without women. It would be more difficult for the all-male generation to carry on though, as human eggs are difficult to harvest and don’t keep well and they’d need artificial wombs of some sort anyway.

Actually, it is my guess that we are well within a generation of being capable of human parthenogenesis (female-only reproduction). I don’t expect to see it in my lifetime, though I consider myself reasonably young, but after a man-plague, the interest would be greater and the ethical concerns would vanish.

Formal parthenogenesis in many species produces XO sterile offspring (e.g. workers from queen bees), but it’s probably the best term to use to learn more about XX-only human reproduction, due to its early use in science fiction discussions.

BTW, I neglected to ask, but… I hope this isn’t a homework assignment.

(I tell you, the worst thing about Evil University is how the students all cheat! I keep telling them it wpon’t be enough to qualify for Honors, like Summa Cum Vituperum or Minima Cum Laude), but do they listen? No! Kids today!When I was a Minion, we knew the difference between Evil and merely Obnoxious!)

It’s all based on chance. Organisms develop new traits all the time. Most of these traits are neutral, i.e., the traits do not affect survival rates. Some are negative-survival, some are adaptive. It’s not like the organisms stay up all night calculating if their modifications are going to be adAPTIVE, they just DO IT, and wait for the fallout.
Those that are adaptive, reproduce, those that are maladaptive die out. A simplification, for sure, but I’m post-ictial and it’s the best I can manage at the moment.
Evolution is not directed, except by adaptation (ex-post-facto). Organisms that survive pass on their genes, those that don’t, die out. It’s all by chance. An organism can have the most adaptive trait in the history of procreation, but if it doesn’t pass that trait on to the next generation, it’s just too bad.

Anyway, sure it is possible for an illness to attack the y-chromosome. There are already some, not survival-threatening; if the Y-chromosome is attacked adequately, no more men! Makes survival difficult.

Organisms evolve all sorts of things that lead to their eventual destruction. Evolution selects for things that help an organism “right then,” at that moment. It doesn’t look into the future to see what the consequences might be.

Nope, I’m already a college grad and not in grad school (yet). And I was never anywhere near good enough at science to pursue a graduate degree in the field! But the topic of a male-only plague came up in the other thread, and while such things pop up in SF now and then I wasn’t sure if it would actually be possible in the real world.

Quoth KP:

Of course, I meant “care” in a non-literal way, that a germ that killed all of its hosts would be ill-adapted and quickly died out. I was also assuming that the germ would have evolved gradually, from some similar germ. That is to say, I assumed that the lethality of the disease caused by a microbe would not suddenly increase by a large amount. If a germ slowly got more lethal, it would at some point pass the optimum lethality, and selective pressure would then tend to decrease the lethality. Are my assumptions reasonable, or do germ lethalities actually increase greatly over a short time span?

Oops…I hear a “WHOOSHING” sound somewhere near my head…

What I meant to say before was, of course it’s not homework! I’m already a graduate of Evil Man-Hating Women’s College, so why would I be doing homework? It’s just an area of personal interest…a hobby, one might say. Some of the gals and I have a little club that meets in my underground fortress on weekends and we like to discuss such things for amusement.

Of course I understood that you were speaking metaphorically, Chronos. It’s just that the way we speak of “evolution” tempts us all into anthropomorphic descriptions and vastly misleading metaphors. Blame the culture. It gets us even when we know better.

Not only does evolution have no intent or purpose (as we all know), but it isn’t even a process. it’s just a general observation, a numbers game. “Survival of the fittest” is quite wrong. Very often evolution doesn’t improve the survival of the individual, or even the individual’s strain. But that’s getting into hairy turf.

Evolution doesn’t apply much to epidemic strains, because epidemics are too brief. The Spanish influenza of 1918 killed 40 million people around the world in a year. Then it died it out. In 1951, and again in recent years, we’ve exhumed victims buried in the arctic permafrost, because no samples of the virus survived for study. Its almost simultaneous disappearance from all corners of the globe suggest it didn’t “evolve away”, but having exhausted its targets of opportunity, it was probably just not well adapted to the challenge of persisting. This is not uncommon with highly virulent/pandemic viruses.

Yet, despite behaving exactly as you predicted, it was possibly the worst epidemic to that point in human history–20x the peak year of the Black Plague. It infected and sickened far more people than it killed, often with life-long effects, so it should stand as an inspiration for the Evil Man Hater’s Society… though it’s an Orthomyxovirus, and not suited to the proposed man-killer virus, one can’t help but think of minor tweaks that could have made it even more deadly, and be inspired.

For example, you’ll that I posited separate mechanism for infection vs. lethality If Spanish Influenza hadn’t shown its effects so quickly (many victims went from perfect health to being unable to stand within hours), it might have spread even more. AIDS is possibly the only pandemic to eclipse the Spanish Influenza, even though it is ridiculously less contagious (Cecil cites the chances of contracting it from a single act of unprotected heterosexual intercourse with an HIV+ partner at 1 in 500, which isn’t too far from the study I usually cite) simply because its primary window of contagion is months instead of days, and the window of possible infectiousness is up to ten years before symptoms arise.

A virus with the contagiousness of an influenza and a slow progression like AIDS might infect very nearly everyone in the world before it was discovered. I’d maybe a 1-2 year delay before a rapid onset of rapid lethaity (there’s no point in giving people a chance to find a treatment or cure, though that’s unlikely with the mechanism I posited) HIV is a retrovirus, the same type of virus I suggested.