Good lord, the following post turned into an essay. My English teacher always told me to start essays with a statement of contention, and mine is “It’s not completely unlikely that the Wii’s successor will be the most powerful console when it launches, even when taking Nintendo’s target audience and corporate personality into account.”
If Nintendo wants to release a console that will have games that look at least as good as the Wii, but can output to high definition, they’ll need to boost the graphics card quite a bit (standard definition is approx 0.5 megapixels, full HD is approx 2 megapixels - just to have games look the same but higher res, you’ll need to quadruple the fill-rate on the GPU). So, my guess is that they’ll be beefing up the hardware at least a bit. In theory they could add more memory and boost clock speed again, but I’d imagine they’ll make things a bit more powerful and add some support for modern features. This means that unlike with the Wii, they’ll have to overhaul libraries, hardware documentation, etc quite significantly. So my guess is there’s no real point in them having outrageously underpowered hardware - it might not be ‘modern’ exactly, but it will probably not be more than one generation out of date. We’ll call that Conjecture A.
Okay so, the Wii is using ten year old hardware (sort of). Pretty old, right? You know what other consoles are using outdated hardware? All of them. The 360 and the PS3 are both around five years old now. You can literally buy an 11" laptop for six hundred bucks that is quite a bit more powerful than those platforms (and that price includes a screen, and a copy of Windows!). So, if Nintendo does boost the specs considerably for their next console, they could probably make it quite a bit beefier than the current HD consoles without it cutting into their desire to make a profit on consoles they sell. Because it’s not just small cheap gaming laptops that can out-graphics the current consoles - we’re getting pretty close to some of the newer tablets being up there, too. I heard somewhere (compelling cite, I know) that the PSP2’s going to be in the ballpark of the 360 in terms of GPU power. So they could probably bring a console that’s more powerful than the current pair of consoles without it hurting their bottom line too much - they could still sell it at a reasonable price and make a profit. I think. I’m going to call that Conjecture B.
Right so, what are MS and Sony doing right now? They’ve both just launched, like… sort of new platforms. MS talked quite a bit about how the Kinect would be treated like a new platform, if I recall correctly - certainly developers are having to rethink things a lot to get good use from it, and there’s very little overlap between games that work with Kinect and games that don’t. The Move is a bit different - it would make more sense to give a game optional Move controls than it would optional Kinect controls, and also the Move has been a bit less successful than the Kinect too I think. Anyway, point is, in a sense Sony and MS are at the start of a new console generation of their own right now. Sony also spends a bit of time talking about how the PS3 is the most powerful thing ever and has a shelf life of ten years, but I don’t think that’s a good indicator of when we might be graced with the PS4. Either way though, it’s possible that Sony and Microsoft won’t be joining Nintendo in the eighth hardware generation for a little while yet. This is the weakest of the conjectures so far, and I will therefore call it Conjecture C.
There’s another conjecture required here, and that is that Nintendo’s next console will be a ‘traditional’ console - ie, a computer that you plug into your TV and play games on it with controllers of some kind. Maybe that’ll happen, maybe it won’t. That’s Conjecture D.
Okay. Now if we assume all these conjectures come true (and I’m in no way pretending that that’s not a big assumption), Nintendo will be able to use the ‘most powerful console’ crown to its best advantage for at least a year or two for very little cost to them. I know they’re all casual friendly and stuff right now, and it’s done their bottom line no end of good, but the core market is not nothing. The main reason they lost that market last generation was simply power - anyone wanting to make a game that in any way depended on looking good wanted nothing to do with the Wii because it was just so far behind. Porting to the Wii meant massive overhaul of assets and codebase. It was worth it for Nintendo because competing with Sony and MS at that point would have been expensive, but it seems to me that if my above conjectures are correct, and Nintendo can claim the ‘beefiest console’ crown for at least a little while for little cost to themselves, it would be worth their while.