My first post …apologies if I’ve posted in the wrong section. Recently the U.N released updated global population projections,lowering the midyear 2050 estimate by 400 million to 8.9 billion. Reasons cited were the ongoing global AIDS crisis and a surprise drop in the total fertility rate [TFR].
I believe there is at least one other factor which will drive down the rate of growth and possibly reverse population growth entirely. Widespread female infanticide in the “developing” world, especially in Asia, is regarded as a serious problem. In addition, as HIV/AIDS claims disproportionately more females, it seems that there will be less children born year to year. I’ve searched for a projection study which models the effect of these factors on global population, but so far Google has been unwilling to cough up such a study.
Does such a study exist? Can anyone point me to a link? Has anyone given some thought to the idea that the world may not actually have a problem with a population “bomb” but a bomb AND a crash close on its heels. link from an Indian newspaper details the consequences of female infanticide [read the third paragraph].
In addition to a heads-up on relevant studies, and also the thoughts and opinions of the Dopers. Any ideas?
Dang. Screwed up my first post. The last sentence should say, “In addition to a heads-up on relevant studies, I’m interested in the thoughts and opinions of the Dopers”. Anybody?
For facts (appropriate to General Questions), I have not yet seen any specific studies on infanticide, particularly female infanticide, as an agent of world population control. There have been several reports, over the years, indicating that China has suffered a disproportionate number of female infanticides. (When the family is limited to a single child, the parents frequently select only for a boy.) While female infanticide, (and abuse of women, generally), is a fairly common story in India, I have not encountered any studies indicating that it will actually hasten depopulation in India.
The U.N. has been predicting a gradual slowing of population growth, followed by an actual decline in the world population by the middle of this century for several years. (The ancient, hoary, and mind-numbing thread 6 billion? from several years ago linked to many of the studies that had been published at that time. Do not post to that thread, please! Any comments should be posted in a new thread–such as this one if the OP requests that it be moved to GD or IMHO.
(If you are actually looking for discussion or debate beyond a simple recitation of facts, you might want to e-mail the moderators and ask them to move this thread to a discussion Forum or close this thread so that you can open a new thread in the appropriate Forum. If you are only looking for facts, this Forum is fine)
Discussion of China’s Population Growth Rate The data seems OK, although the provider is an amateur who has not provided a lot of provenance.
Female Infanticide in Rural South India A sociological study of the issue (that does not really address population crashing).