PPP has Romney up 49 - 47.
Why would you think they only care what Nate Silver thinks? I’d be shocked if someone there wasn’t checking the RCP average at least daily.
I’d also be shocked if someone there wasn’t checking 4Chan daily, and that goes for the Romney campaign as well.
Whether or not they look at RCP seriously is another matter. I don’t think they do.
To be fair, I don’t believe the Romney campaign will be looking at RCP and taking it seriously either. That’s what I’m saying - it’s junk and not reflective of reality. People who are a lot smarter than us about this stuff know where to look and what to look for - RCP isn’t it.
Unless you’ve got some insider info on the Obama campaign, I doubt you could say with any confidence what they actually care about or pay attention to. I think this is you projecting your wishes on them. “Oh gee, I really hope that Nate Silver’s prediction is all that really matters (because if RCP’s average is relevant, then it’s scary as hell).” Hope is not a strategy.
And you do realize that Nate Silver’s model is basically an average of polls with some economic metrics factored in? It just happens to lag one day behind the RCP average, and, according to Silver, takes steps to minimize statistical noise, which has the effect of downplaying gains or losses caused by non-economic events.
I know exactly what Silver’s model is (and it’s a lot more complex than how you describe it, weighting certain polls over others based on their historical performance), and I know what RCP is. Of the two, the fact that you lend so much credence to RCP says more about you than me.
Silver is hinting that there will be a huge swing in his model today, presumably towards Romney. I don’t like it, but I accept that this is the state of the race.
Still doesn’t mean RCP is worth a damn though.
Given that they keep on quoting stuff found on liberal blogs, I assume they read liberal blogs a lot.
Good, because Romney didn’t win that debate. Obama lost it. Obama has been running a fairly flawless campaign and that has put us in a situation where a president might get re-elected during the second worst recession in our history.
I get an “urgent” email asking me for money at least once a day and Obama basically mails in his debate performance.
Its like he was aiming for a tie and just shot himself in the dick.
I’d be shocked if they didn’t.
Obama may not be losing but he is losing ground.
The next debate isn’t a must win but its a MUST NOT LOSE.
You keep claiming insights and expertise that I’d be shocked if you actually held. Do you work for Nate Silver or something?
You caught me. I’m Nate Silver’s dentist’s pool boy.
Since I’m so close to the man himself, I’ll go ahead and give you this super secret link to all of his model’s methodology. Don’t worry if it appears to be public information, that’s just what we use to fool liberals.
While he certainly describes his methodology there (that link appears to be for Senate races, but whatever), he doesn’t give precise details for everything. I wouldn’t hardly claim to know “exactly” how his model works after reading that.