Sorry to resurrect; I was on vacation last week.
[QUOTE=RTFirefly]
James Fallows made the case in the Atlantic a few years back that the true niche of small planes was in the shorter intercity flights. He was talking about the routes where by the time you get in the car, drive to the airport, check in, wait for your flight, actually fly, then wait for your luggage, pick up your car, and drive to your destination at the other end, you hadn’t saved that much time over driving straight through.
Fallows was pushing someone’s vision of a small plane that would have a working parachute big and strong enough for the whole damn plane, the assumption being that this would lessen the risks both in terms of the insurance problem and the willingness of people to put themselves and their kids in a plane that their spouse is flying.
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Fallows later expanded his Atlantic material into a book, Free Flight: Inventing the Future of Travel. He devotes a large section of the book to the development of the Cirrus, and why it’s so hard to bring a new plane to market. (Long story short: the insurance issue was a canard, it was generally the economics as cited by Sam Stone that was the problem. Cessna, for one, when downsizing their single-engine business, claimed it was the insurance problem but it was actually their declining profit margins in that market. They’ve since moved on rather nicely into the business jet category.)
[QUOTE=Broomstick]
*Will someone please define “extremely easy to learn to fly” a little more precisely for me? I didn’t find our current airplanes to be difficult. C’mon, this is NOT rocket science, people! Granted, I don’t fly rotors, but even though I’m aware they are a bit trickier, I still don’t see where they’re so impossible.
The HARD part of flying is not making it go where you point it. The hard part is navigating, and knowing what to do when something goes wrong. Learning a bunch of regulations is kind of icky, too, but it’s no worse than learning your multiplication tables or any other form of rote memorization.
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As I said before - learning to operate such machinery at such speeds is within the capability of most humans but few are motivated to actually learn to do this properly. And we certainly don’t want airborne bumper cars.*
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I don’t know if people aren’t “motivated” to learn to fly; I think it’s more a case that there aren’t that many people who need to. I’d like to get my pilot’s license, but I don’t have the money and I don’t have the need (my commute is 10 minutes). It would just be an expensive hobby, which I can’t afford right now.
I don’t see a new aviation paradigm on the horizon that would compel thousands of people to flock to flight schools. What problem could a Skycar (assuming it works as well as Moller believes it will) or similar invention solve? The only one I can think of is the increasing number of people whose commutes extend for an hour or more one-way. But even if the safety issues are ironed out and even if this hypothetical aircraft can make it to market at an affordable price, there’s still the issues of increasing fuel costs and of developing a usable infrastructure on the ground (akin to heliports at an office park, or starting up buslines between local airports and places of employment).
Fallows was right: the new niche for aircraft to fill is not to serve as a commuter vehicle. It is to fill in the gaps of the current hub-and-spoke aviation model, using the 5,000 or so general aviation fields that are currently underutilized to take the strain off the commercial hubs. If I wanted to go to Los Angeles from the Bay Area and my time was important enough to require that I fly, right now I could show up two hours early at San Jose or San Francisco for an hour-long flight south, then spend another two hours collecting luggage and a rental car and driving to my destination. I’d rather have my wife drop me off at one of the two GA airports within 15 minutes of my house, hop on an air taxi with maybe four passenger seats (one of the new very light jets* soon coming to market will fit the bill nicely), fly into another small airport closest to my destination, and walk with my luggage in hand to a car rental counter.