In the news today, Syria has apparently locked and loaded their sarin gas bombs and is just waiting for Assad to put on his big girl panties and give the order.
Also in the news is a lot of euphemistic talk about “red lines” and unacceptable behavior. But should the shells fly, what exactly is the world prepared to do about it?
On the military side there’s:
drone strikes
air strikes
cruise missiles
commando attacks
Marines
ground invasion (although I’d be surprised if the logistics for this were in place)
responding in kind (although as I understand since the US does not keep a stock of chemical weapons on standby, responding in kind would be in the form of a nuclear weapon)
The military spectrum can cover anything from targeted assassinations to full-on land war. I would assume the diplomatic side has options as well although it’s hard to imagine any kind of international condemnation that wouldn’t be a repeat of things various nations have already said.
In any case, it seems inevitable that if Assad’s regime pulls the trigger they’re going to find out what “red lines” mean in exacting detail. I don’t think the response will be nuclear since it doesn’t seem to me that Syria’s problems can be solved by making a city go away. And I’d like to think that the world would actually intervene rather than making up more pointless UN resolutions and strongly worded tweets about how wrong it all is. So, to the audience it goes: what can or should the world do if Syria uses their chemical weapons?
Targeted airstrike on Assad, chemical weapons stocks, and maybe Maher Assad too. That ought to stop the madness and eliminate any concerns about chemical weapons falling into jihadi hands without getting us more involved than absolutely necessary.
Also, I’m sure the Russians would be pretty pissed if we invaded or kept up any sustained action against Syria. No point in upsetting the bear.
I don’t believe the news reports, but I think you can safely rule out nuclear weapons (seems a little bit of overkill). Also I don’t think there will be a ground invasion. We are already likely arming the rebels to some extent - and depending on how anti-israeli they are - we would likely be much more open about this. Providing air cover. Most likely any planes suspected to be involved in delivering chemical weapons would no longer be allowed to fly without be shot down (probably their whole air force). There are probably lots of things going on behind the scenes we don’t know about yet. Assad would find out if he gives the world an excuse.
No chemical weapons are the old nuclear. To me chemical weapons are much scarier than nukes. With nukes you either die or you don’t have symptoms till you can get treatment and drugs. Chemicals leave you suffering and dieing painfully on the battlefield.
Unless debris hits you or you’re badly burned. Nukes only totally vaporize a small area; the area where lots of people will be painfully hurt is much larger. (That’s why, despite ignorant people mocking the idea, ducking and covering was/is a very good idea.)
I kinda doubt he’d use them. Historically chemical weapons haven’t been particularly effective as compared to just firing conventional bombs, so tactically it probably doesn’t help him. And if he uses them, there’s at least an even chance it would lead to NATO airstrikes, which would probably do far more damage to his cause then using the weapons would help it. And finally, if he needs to flee the country, he’s a lot less likely to be able to cut a deal and be allowed to flee to Russia or some other sympathetic country as opposed to ending up in front of a war-crimes court if he doesn’t start gassing his own citizens.
(plus, the American Intelligence Community doesn’t exactly have a perfect record of predicting when Mid-East dictators are about to unleash chemical weapons on people)
The US and NATO have more missiles/bombs/etc than Syria has Assads. It only has to work once and the military might he’d be facing can make several hundred attempts a day. If Assad stays still, he’ll be found out eventually (to paraphrase Die Hard 4- which house is his? The one with the lights on.) If he moves around he’ll be caught in the open. Either way, he’s going to lose all effective control. I just hope he doesn’t think gassing his own people is a fair trade.
Eh, using airstrikes to go after world leaders like that doesn’t seem to work very often. We tried to get Milosevic, Saddam (in two different wars) and Quaddafi that way, and in all cases the men in question were able to stay ahead of the bombings.
It’s a bad scene any way you slice it. The American people are pretty much sick of war, and invading another country would go over like a turd in a punchbowl.
At the same time, there’s really no way we don’t do something drastic if Syria uses chemical weapons against anybody. I think we’ve got two carriers in the area, plus some Air Force planes, and we could get more there reasonably quickly. My best guess is we’d launch a bombing campaign supported by cruise missiles and establish a no-fly zone. Possibly send in some special ops guys for certain missions.
I think I read somewhere that we already have some special ops guys training “other regional forces” in how to secure the chemical weapons. I suspect “other regional forces” means Turkey. They’re already pissed off at Syria over recent border incidents. Israel might be willing, but their involvement is too likely to cause things to escalate.
I heard from someone yesterday that he is just as likely as Saddam was in the Gulf War to attack Israel to shore up his own support. Of course this was in the context of the “END OF THE WORLD*” so is this 100% malarkey or is it something he has ever hinted at or strategically something that even last ditch he would do? I only see the news saying it is to use against his own people, so I am under the assumption no intelligence is pointing to him using it against anyone but the opposition in Syria.
Shore up support among whom? His own people? Even if he succeeds in rallying every single Syrian to the flag, Israel will still kill him and crush his forces if he uses chemical weapons against them - assuming that they don’t just nuke Damascus.
